Captain's log, September 1, 2026, light east breeze and a clean reef window

Tuesday, September 1. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:30 AM EDT, and this is one of the better looking summer reef mornings we have had lately.

The Atlantic high is still running the show on the Keys waters. That keeps the breeze light, mostly east to southeast in the morning, with a little northeast to east bend late in the day. It also keeps deep moisture sitting over us. So the numbers are friendly, but the sky still gets a vote.

NOAA has a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the local waters today. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected near thunderstorm activity. That is the line that matters if you are looking at flat water and thinking the day is automatic.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has east winds to southeast near 5 knots today. Seas are 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters are smooth. That is good reef water, as long as the storms leave you alone.

The Straits are also reasonable. NOAA has east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and wave detail east 1 foot at 4 seconds. That is not a big ocean forecast. It is still September, though. Heat, squalls, and dead current can make a good looking day fish smaller than it reads.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east to southeast near 5 knots in Hawk Channel, 5 to 10 knots in the Straits
Hawk Channel	seas 1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	seas 1 to 2 feet, east 1 foot at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	east to southeast near 5 knots, bay waters smooth
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Reef side water	station 41122 off southeast Florida, 87.1 F water and 1.0 ft seas at 5:30 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look if you find life

Sombrero Key was showing southeast wind near 6 knots with gusts near 7 knots at 5:30 AM EDT. Sand Key was showing east wind near 6 knots with gusts near 7 knots at the same time. Station 41122 showed 1.0 ft seas, a 4 second dominant period, and 87.1 F water at 5:30 AM EDT.

Those observations line up with the forecast. Light breeze, small sea, hot water. The reef should be the first plan unless the outside shows birds, bait, weed, or a clean edge that is too good to ignore.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel gets the best grade today. East to southeast near 5 knots and seas 1 foot or less is about as polite as September gets around here.

That puts Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all in play. The main thing is current. Light wind makes the boat comfortable, but it does not make fish bite by itself. If the chum hangs under the transom or the slick runs the wrong way, move until the boat fishes right.

This is a day where anchoring clean matters more than hiding from the weather. Set up on the edge, let the chum work, and do not waste half the morning trying to force a dead spot to become a good one.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair to good on the sea state. NOAA has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots and seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east 1 foot at 4 seconds.

That opens the door for a look outside, but I would not make it a blind mission. The latest Gulf Stream note from NOAA places the shoreward edge 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of August 26. That puts moving water close to the upper reef line on paper.

Paper does not catch mahi. Find birds, flyers, weed, bait, or color. If the ocean looks empty, go back to the reef and make the day pay.

florida bay

Florida Bay is light today. NOAA has east to southeast winds near 5 knots with bay waters smooth. Tonight goes east at 5 to 10 knots, smooth to a light chop.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 88.7 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot before the sun really starts swinging. The backcountry bite can still happen, but the good work is early moving water and clean flow. Once the shallows cook, fish get picky and everybody on the boat starts negotiating with shade.

tides for tuesday, september 1

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean side tide read closest to the Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	6:29 AM EDT	0.060 ft	early low
High	12:36 PM EDT	1.647 ft	midday high
Low	6:56 PM EDT	0.347 ft	evening low

Alligator Reef, Hawk Channel gives the reef side timing farther down the line.

event	time	height	notes
Low	5:53 AM EDT	0.116 ft	early low
High	12:28 PM EDT	2.401 ft	midday high
Low	6:20 PM EDT	0.665 ft	evening low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	4:33 AM EDT	1.174 ft	early high
Low	10:11 AM EDT	0.230 ft	morning low
High	6:00 PM EDT	0.920 ft	evening high
Low	10:07 PM EDT	0.706 ft	late low

For the reef, I like the push from the early low toward the midday high. If the current starts clean after sunrise and keeps stretching, stay with it. If it goes slack around the top, do not get sentimental.

On the bay side, the fall toward the 10:11 AM low gives the morning window. After that, the heat is going to lean on everything. The evening rise toward 6:00 PM may give tarpon and permit water if storms do not mess it up.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good call today. Light east to southeast breeze and small Hawk Channel seas make it comfortable, and the Gulf Stream note puts the shoreward edge 1 NM west northwest of Molasses Reef Light.

That close outside water can help the reef edge if the color and current line up. Yellowtail are the first play in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair if bait shows in the slick.

If the current is right, do not overthink it. Let the chum work and keep baits clean.

conch reef

Conch should fish well enough today, especially on the incoming push toward midday. Light wind gives you room to set up without beating up the crew.

Fish 50 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around structure. A deeper bait for mutton belongs out there, but the main bite should be built with chum and steady current.

If the water is too clean and the fish hang back, lighten up. If the slick dies, move.

davis reef

Davis is the easy half day call. Short run, fishable bottom, and close enough to keep an eye on weather building over the island chain.

Fish 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Cero mackerel are fair if bait is around. It is not the longest run or the flashiest plan, but on a hot September day with storms possible, practical can put dinner in the box.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look. The midday high should give it a clean window if the current behaves.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be good with a clean chum line. Muttons are fair deeper with live bait or fresh cut bait. If the current slides sideways against the wind, pick up before the bite gets lazy.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the stronger calls today. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, and the Alligator tide shows a solid rise into the 12:28 PM high.

Yellowtail should be good from 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair on structure. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. The outside look is worth checking if birds or weed show, but do not leave a biting reef just because the chart says blue water is close.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today. The sea state is not the problem. The question is whether the extra ride beats the closer reef water.

If you are already sliding that way, fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves, with a deeper mutton bait on the edge. I would not run past Davis, Crocker, or Alligator if they are showing clean current. Miles do not impress fish.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 ft with chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and harder bottom while current runs
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks with bait behind the boat
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water with bait present
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay side water before the heat stacks up
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay water with flow
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade. The reef is calm enough to fish properly, and the tide gives you a useful morning into midday push.

Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are fair, but I would treat them as the deeper bonus rod while the boat fishes for snapper.

Mahi are fair because the Gulf Stream edge is close near Molasses and Alligator. That does not mean go burn fuel in empty water. Look first. If the signs are there, take the shot. If not, the reef has the better math.

The bay species are heat limited. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but the cleanest shot is early or later with moving water. Hot, still flats are where good ideas go to sweat.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Alligator and Crocker get the strongest snapper look if the current is right. Davis is the smart half day pick. Molasses has the best outside-water argument, but only if the ocean gives you something worth chasing.

Conch is steady. Tennessee is fishable, but I would make closer good water pay before adding miles.

Today is a good Islamorada reef day with a fair outside option. The sea is small, the wind is light, and the tide gives you a real working window. Watch the clouds, respect the heat, and do not sit on dead current just because the anchor is already down.