Captain's log, September 2, 2026, small seas and hot reef water

Wednesday, September 2. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:26 AM EDT, and the Islamorada reef side has a small-water look again.

The western edge of the Atlantic high is still controlling the Keys waters. That means light breeze with some peaking and lulling through the day. The direction is not locked in hard. NOAA has the breeze running east to southeast in the morning, with more northeast to east later in the afternoon and evening.

That is good for comfort. It is not a free pass.

NOAA keeps deep moisture over the area, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected near thunderstorm activity. On a day like this, the ocean can look friendly while one black cloud writes its own rule book.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has east winds near 5 knots today. Seas are 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters are smooth, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are workable too. NOAA has east to southeast winds near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and wave detail northeast to east 1 foot at 3 seconds. That is a light sea state for September. The outside still needs signs of life before it gets the fuel.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east near 5 knots in Hawk Channel, east to southeast near 5 knots in the Straits
Hawk Channel	seas 1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	seas around 1 foot, northeast to east 1 foot at 3 seconds
Florida Bay	variable wind near 5 knots becoming east, bay waters smooth
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Reef side water	station 41122, 87.1 F water and 0.3 ft seas at 5:30 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.0 F at 3:42 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look if the ocean shows bait or birds

Sombrero Key was showing southeast wind near 2 knots with gusts near 3 knots at 5:30 AM EDT. Sand Key was showing southeast wind near 3 knots with gusts near 5 knots at 5:20 AM EDT. Station 41122 reported 0.3 ft seas, a 3.6 second average period, and 87.1 F water at 5:30 AM EDT.

Those numbers match the forecast. Light wind, small sea, hot water. This is reef-first weather unless the outside shows something worth leaving fishable bottom for.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel gets the best grade this morning. East wind near 5 knots and seas 1 foot or less is comfortable water for Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee.

Comfort is not the same as current. If the chum sits under the boat, the bite will stall no matter how pretty it looks from the bridge. Set up clean, watch the slick, and move before the morning gets away from you.

The best reef work should come where the tide gives enough push to stretch the chum and keep baits natural. If the current slides wrong against the wind, do not babysit it.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair on the numbers. East to southeast near 5 knots and seas around 1 foot make it rideable.

The question is whether there is anything to fish. NOAA’s latest Gulf Stream note, dated August 26, places the shoreward edge 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That puts outside water close to the upper reef line on paper.

Paper does not catch mahi. Birds, flyers, weed, color, and bait get my attention. Empty blue water is still empty blue water, even when the ride is nice.

florida bay

Florida Bay is light. NOAA has variable winds near 5 knots becoming east, with bay waters smooth and a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 90.0 F water at 3:42 AM EDT. That is hot water before breakfast. Bay side fish can still eat, but the cleaner shot is early moving water before the flats heat up. Later in the day, shade starts sounding better than another long push across skinny water.

tides for wednesday, september 2

Whale Harbor Channel gives the Islamorada ocean-side tide read. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
High	12:40 AM EDT	1.552 ft	overnight high
Low	7:18 AM EDT	0.088 ft	early low
High	1:27 PM EDT	1.604 ft	midday high
Low	7:48 PM EDT	0.440 ft	evening low

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, gives the nearby reef-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	12:31 AM EDT	1.709 ft	overnight high
Low	7:09 AM EDT	0.045 ft	early low
High	1:18 PM EDT	1.767 ft	midday high
Low	7:39 PM EDT	0.223 ft	evening low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	5:06 AM EDT	1.229 ft	early high
Low	11:07 AM EDT	0.134 ft	late morning low
High	8:28 PM EDT	0.776 ft	evening high
Low	10:39 PM EDT	0.727 ft	late low

For the reef, I like the water coming off the early low and pushing toward the midday high. That gives the morning some shape. If the current is running right after sunrise, fish it hard. If it dies near the top, pick up and reset.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good call today. The sea state is small, and NOAA’s Gulf Stream note has the shoreward edge 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light as of August 26.

That does not guarantee anything, but close outside water can help when the color and current line up. Yellowtail are the first play in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gets behind the boat.

If the reef is alive, stay with it. If it looks pretty but dead, take one short outside look before wasting the whole tide.

conch reef

Conch should fish fine in this setup. Light east wind makes the anchor work manageable, and the midday high gives you a real window if the current stretches clean.

Fish 50 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around structure. A deeper bait belongs out for mutton, but the main work should be chum, patience, and clean presentation.

Do not fish yesterday’s memory. Fish what the slick is telling you today.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half day call. Short run, manageable bottom, and easy enough to keep weather in sight.

Fish 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Cero mackerel are fair if bait shows. On a hot September day with storms in the forecast, practical can be the difference between a good box and a long boat ride.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look with this tide. The rise into the early afternoon high should give enough water movement if the wind stays light.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be good where the chum line runs clean. Muttons are fair deeper with live bait or fresh cut bait. If the current gets lazy, do not wait for it to apologize.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better calls. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, and today’s light wind gives you room to fish the reef edge without beating up the crew.

Yellowtail should be good from 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair around harder bottom. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. The outside is worth a look only if you see birds, weed, bait, or a clean color change.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today. The sea state is not the problem. The question is whether the extra run gives you enough back.

Fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves, with a deeper mutton bait soaking if the current is right. I would not drive past biting water at Davis, Crocker, or Alligator just to say I went farther.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 ft with chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure and ledges while current runs
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks with bait behind the boat
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water with bait present
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side water before the heat stacks up
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay water with flow
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade. The reef is calm enough to fish properly, and the tide gives the morning a useful push.

Mangroves are fair on structure. Muttons are fair, but I would treat them as the deeper bonus rod while the boat works for snapper.

Mahi are fair because the Stream edge is close on the NOAA note, especially near Molasses and Alligator. Close water helps only when it has life on it. If the outside is blank, go back to the reef and make dinner happen.

The bay species are heat limited. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but the cleaner bite is early or later with moving water. Hot, still water turns everything picky.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Alligator and Crocker get the strongest snapper look if the current behaves. Davis is the smart half day choice. Molasses has the best argument for a quick outside check, but only if the ocean shows bait, birds, weed, or color.

Conch is steady. Tennessee is fishable, but closer good water should get the first shot.

Today is good reef weather with a fair outside option. The sea is small, the breeze is light, and the tide gives you something to work with. Keep an eye on the clouds. September storms do not care how nice the forecast looked at the dock.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 9:51 AM EDT. The general setup has not moved much. The western edge of the Atlantic high is still running the show, the breeze is still light, and the storm note still matters.

The small change is in the wind wording. This morning had Hawk Channel east near 5 knots. The midday package now has variable winds near 5 knots for Hawk Channel this afternoon, with seas still 1 foot or less and nearshore waters smooth. That is a little less organized than the early read, but not rougher.

The Straits did not take a bad turn. NOAA still has east to southeast winds near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and wave detail northeast to east 1 foot at 3 seconds for this afternoon. That keeps the outside rideable on paper.

Florida Bay also eased into variable winds near 5 knots this afternoon, with smooth bay waters. Tonight NOAA has the bay going northeast near 5 knots, then southeast, while Hawk Channel goes northeast to east near 5 knots. The water stays small unless a thunderstorm gets on top of you.

So the call stays about the same. Reef first, outside only if it shows birds, weed, bait, or a color edge. The midday high has passed, and the next move is the slide toward the evening low. If the current quits, do not admire pretty water too long.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:27 PM EDT. The short version is that the water stayed in the same small September pattern. No big wind event showed up in the package. Just light breeze, hot water, and that daily thunderstorm risk that can turn a friendly ride into a mess if you stop watching the sky.

For tonight, NOAA has variable winds near 5 knots becoming southeast to south. Hawk Channel is still 1 foot or less with nearshore waters smooth. The Straits are around 1 foot, with northeast to east wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds. Florida Bay stays smooth.

That matches the day we were looking at this morning. The reef side had the best working shape. Not because it was fancy, just because small seas let you fish the chum line right and keep the boat where it belongs. The outside was rideable, but rideable is not the same as worth burning fuel. It still needed birds, weed, bait, color, or some other honest sign before I would give it much rope.

Tomorrow, Thursday September 3, keeps the door open. NOAA has Hawk Channel southeast to south winds near 5 knots becoming variable, seas 1 foot or less, and nearshore waters smooth. The Straits are also southeast to south near 5 knots becoming variable, seas around 1 foot, with east wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds. Florida Bay is smooth with southeast to south winds near 5 knots.

The catch is the same one we have had all week. There is still a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Fish early, keep the weather on a short leash, and do not let calm water talk you into ignoring a building cloud.

My call for Thursday is reef first again. Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Davis all make sense if the current gives you enough push. Yellowtail get the best look, mangroves are fair on the structure, and a mutton rod belongs deeper if the tide is moving. The outside is a maybe, not a plan, unless the ocean shows life.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 AM EDT, updated 9:51 AM EDT, and updated 4:27 PM EDT Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Windley Key station 8723795, and Vaca Key Florida Bay station 8723970. Reef-side observations from NDBC station 41122, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and Sand Key station SANF1.