Captain's log, September 3, 2026, light south breeze and small reef seas

Thursday, September 3. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:32 AM EDT, and the Islamorada reef line gets another small-water morning.

The western side of a weak North Atlantic high is still loosely in charge around the Keys. That keeps the breeze light. NOAA has the wind southeast to south near 5 knots today in Hawk Channel, with the Straits starting southeast to south near 5 knots and becoming east.

That is friendly water for the reef. It is also September, so do not let the calm look make you careless. NOAA keeps seasonally normal rain and thunder chances in the forecast. A small sea can turn ugly fast under a thunderstorm.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has southeast winds near 5 knots today. Seas are 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters are smooth, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are rideable on the numbers. NOAA has southeast to south winds near 5 knots becoming east, seas around 1 foot, and wave detail east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. That is light, short-period water.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	southeast to south near 5 knots, becoming east in the Straits
Hawk Channel	seas 1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	seas around 1 foot, east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast to south near 5 knots, bay waters smooth
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Reef buoy	station 41122, 0.7 ft seas and 87.1 F water at 5:30 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 90.3 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look only if the water shows life

Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed 0.7 ft seas, a 2.3 second average period, and 87.1 F water at 5:30 AM EDT. Sombrero Key was showing south wind near 5 knots with gusts near 7 knots at 5:20 AM EDT. Long Key was showing southeast wind near 8 knots with gusts near 9 knots at 5:20 AM EDT.

Those readings line up with the forecast. Light south side breeze, little sea, hot water. The boat ride is not the problem today. The problem is picking the right window before the heat and clouds start bossing the day around.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel gets a good grade this morning. Southeast wind near 5 knots and seas 1 foot or less put Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all in play.

Light wind makes the ride comfortable, but it can make the anchor work touchy if the current is soft. Watch the chum. If it hangs under the stern, the slick is not doing its job.

The best reef bite should come on moving water around the morning low and the push toward the afternoon high. When the current lines up, fish it hard. When it quits, reset or move.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair today. NOAA has seas around 1 foot, with an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

The Gulf Stream note from NOAA, dated August 26, puts the shoreward edge 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 1 NM west-northwest of Molasses Reef Light. That means outside water is close on paper, especially around the upper reef.

Paper still does not catch fish. Birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a clean edge get my attention. If the outside looks empty, do not turn a good reef day into a sightseeing bill.

florida bay

Florida Bay is smooth today. NOAA has southeast to south wind near 5 knots and bay waters smooth, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 90.3 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot. Bay side fish can still eat, but the good work is early or on clean moving water. Once it gets still and shiny, the flats get picky in a hurry.

tides for thursday, september 3

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean side tide read closest to the Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
High	1:29 AM EDT	1.510 ft	overnight high
Low	8:14 AM EDT	0.138 ft	morning low
High	2:25 PM EDT	1.555 ft	afternoon high
Low	8:49 PM EDT	0.525 ft	evening low

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	1:20 AM EDT	1.664 ft	overnight high
Low	8:05 AM EDT	0.070 ft	morning low
High	2:16 PM EDT	1.713 ft	afternoon high
Low	8:40 PM EDT	0.266 ft	evening low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	5:41 AM EDT	1.272 ft	early high
Low	12:05 PM EDT	0.087 ft	midday low

For the reef, I like the water coming off the 8 AM low and building into the afternoon high. That gives the morning a real shape if the current has enough pull. The late day fall can fish too, but keep an eye on storms and do not get cute with building weather.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good call today. The sea state is small, the wind is light, and NOAA’s Gulf Stream note still has the shoreward edge close to Molasses Reef Light.

Yellowtail are the main play in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge if the current is honest. Cero mackerel are fair when bait shows behind the boat.

This is also the reef with the best reason for a quick outside look. Quick means quick. If there are no birds, no weed, no bait, and no color, get back to work.

conch reef

Conch should be steady in this setup. Light southeast wind gives you a comfortable ride, and the morning low into the afternoon high gives the reef a usable tide window.

Fish 50 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around harder bottom. A deeper bait for mutton is worth soaking while the boat works the chum line.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half day call. It is close, fishable, and easy to keep the weather in front of you.

Work 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. If the chum slick runs clean, stay with it. If the current lays down, do not sit there feeding ballyhoo and pretending it is strategy.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look today. The water is calm enough to anchor cleanly, and the rising tide should give enough movement for yellowtail if the wind does not swing the boat funny.

Fish 55 to 80 feet. Muttons are fair deeper. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks up in the slick.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better calls. NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 4 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light on the latest note, so you can fish the reef and keep one eye offshore.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. The outside is worth checking only if it shows honest signs.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today. The run is not rough on the forecast, but I still would not pass up biting water closer to Islamorada just to keep running west.

Fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Put a deeper bait out if the current is right. If the reef gets lazy, move instead of waiting for it to remember your schedule.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 ft with chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure and ledges while the current runs
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks with bait behind the boat
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water with bait present
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat stacks up
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay water with flow
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the strongest grade. The reef sea is small enough to fish properly, and the tide gives the morning something to work with.

Mangroves are fair on the structure. Muttons are fair as the deeper bonus rod, not the whole plan. Cero mackerel are worth watching for if the bait gathers in the chum.

Mahi and blackfin are fair because the outside is rideable and the Stream edge is close on NOAA’s note. They are not a blind-run call. Find life first.

The bay side is heat limited. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but that 90.3 F Vaca Key water says fish early, handle them clean, and do not linger on dead water.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Crocker and Alligator have the best snapper look if the current behaves. Davis is the smart half day move. Molasses gets the outside-water argument, but only if the ocean shows something worth chasing.

Conch is steady. Tennessee is fishable, just not where I would start from Islamorada unless the closer reefs look sleepy.

Today is good reef weather with a small outside maybe. Light wind, small seas, hot water, and the usual September thunderstorm warning. Go early, fish moving water, and keep the sky on a short leash.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:30 AM EDT.

The big picture did not change much. The same weak North Atlantic high is still loosely holding the Keys waters, and the same September moisture is still sitting around. That means light breeze, small seas, and enough shower or thunderstorm chances to keep a captain watching the sky instead of getting lazy.

The wind wording did shift some for this afternoon. This morning had Hawk Channel southeast near 5 knots, with the Straits southeast to south near 5 knots becoming east. The midday package has Hawk Channel south to southwest 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south. The Straits are also south to southwest 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast.

Seas are still small. Hawk Channel stays 1 foot or less, with nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits stay around 1 foot, with east to southeast wave detail at 1 foot and 3 seconds. Florida Bay is still smooth, with south to southwest wind near 5 knots becoming southeast to south.

The shower call eased a little for the reef and Straits this afternoon. NOAA now has a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms there, while Florida Bay still carries a chance. I would still treat the late day like September. Fish the moving water, enjoy the soft ride, and do not let a quiet sky talk you out of paying attention.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:32 AM EDT and updated 10:30 AM EDT Thursday, September 3, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Windley Key station 8723795, and Vaca Key Florida Bay station 8723970. Reef-side observations from NDBC station 41122, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, Sand Key station SANF1, and Long Key station LONF1.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:23 PM EDT. Same general setup, with the western side of a weak North Atlantic high still loosely holding the Keys waters. The breeze stayed light enough to keep the reef ride friendly, but September moisture is still around, so showers and thunderstorms stay in the conversation.

For tonight, NOAA has Hawk Channel south to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast to south. Seas stay 1 foot or less, with nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits are south to southwest 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast, seas around 1 foot, with east wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds. Florida Bay has south to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast, with bay waters smooth to a light chop.

That fits the afternoon we expected. Small water, enough breeze direction change to make the anchor set worth watching, and no reason to turn your back on the sky. The reef remained the honest work. Yellowtail, mangroves, and a deeper mutton bait made more sense than a blind run offshore unless the ocean showed birds, weed, bait, or color.

The Gulf Stream note from NOAA was updated September 2. It puts the shoreward edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close enough to check if the surface looks right, not close enough to make promises.

Tomorrow, Friday September 4, still looks fishable. NOAA has Hawk Channel east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots through Friday night, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits are east to southeast 5 to 10 knots Friday, seas around 1 foot, with east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds. Friday night, the Straits build only a little, east to southeast winds near 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and east wave detail 2 feet at 3 seconds.

Florida Bay stays easy on the numbers Friday, southeast winds 5 to 10 knots with bay waters smooth to a light chop. The rain call stays a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the bay, Hawk Channel, and Friday night Straits. The Straits have only a slight chance during the day Friday.

My Friday call is reef first again. Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Davis all make sense if the current gives you a clean chum line. Yellowtail get the best look. Mangroves are fair on structure. Muttons are a deeper bonus, not the whole plan. Offshore is a maybe if the signs are there. If it looks empty, do not make it complicated.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:23 PM EDT Thursday, September 3, 2026. Gulf Stream edge note dated September 2, 2026.