Captain's log, September 4, 2026, southeast breeze and clean reef water

Friday, September 4. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:32 AM EDT, and the Islamorada reef line has another fishable morning.

The same weak North Atlantic high is still loosely holding the Keys waters. That keeps the breeze light to gentle for most of the day, with southeast flow early and some variable behavior expected later in the cycle.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has southeast winds 5 to 10 knots today. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are rideable too. NOAA has southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and wave detail east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. That is small water. Still September, though. A thunderstorm can make its own weather faster than you can explain it to a crew.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	southeast 5 to 10 knots
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth to a light chop
Straits	seas around 1 foot, east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast to south 5 to 10 knots, bay waters smooth to a light chop
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Reef buoy	station 41122, 1.3 ft seas and 86.5 F water at 5:30 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 91.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look if the ocean shows life

Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed 1.3 ft seas, a 3 second dominant period, a 2.4 second average period, and 86.5 F water at 5:30 AM EDT. Long Key was showing southeast wind near 10 knots with gusts near 14 knots at 5:40 AM EDT. Sombrero Key was showing southeast wind near 6 knots with gusts near 8 knots at 5:40 AM EDT.

That all lines up with the forecast. Light southeast breeze, small reef seas, hot water. The ride is friendly. The bite still needs moving water and a clean chum line.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel gets a good grade today. Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 foot put Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play.

That southeast breeze can lay nice on the reef, but it is not much pressure. If the current is soft, the boat may wander and the slick may not stretch. Watch the line behind the boat before you decide the fish are not there.

The best snapper window should be the push off the morning low and into the midafternoon high. If the water starts moving right, do not spend the whole tide looking for somewhere prettier.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair on the numbers. Southeast 5 to 10 knots with seas around 1 foot is easy enough for a look outside, especially if the reef bite is slow or the edge shows signs.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream note, dated September 2, puts the shoreward edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close enough to matter, but not close enough to promise fish.

Birds, weed, bait, flyers, and a real color edge get my attention. Empty blue water still gets treated like empty blue water.

florida bay

Florida Bay is smooth to a light chop today. NOAA has southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 91.0 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is hot water before the day even gets its teeth in. Bay fish can still eat, but the cleaner shot is early moving water. Handle fish fast and do not waste time on dead water.

tides for friday, september 4

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean side tide read closest to the Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
High	2:27 AM EDT	1.475 ft	overnight high
Low	9:19 AM EDT	0.188 ft	morning low
High	3:31 PM EDT	1.522 ft	afternoon high
Low	9:58 PM EDT	0.573 ft	evening low

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	2:18 AM EDT	1.625 ft	overnight high
Low	9:10 AM EDT	0.095 ft	morning low
High	3:22 PM EDT	1.677 ft	afternoon high
Low	9:49 PM EDT	0.291 ft	evening low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	6:22 AM EDT	1.300 ft	morning high
Low	1:08 PM EDT	0.095 ft	early afternoon low

For the reef, I like the water coming off the 9 AM low and building into the 3 PM high. That gives the morning bite a real window. If the current lines up, fish it hard.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good call. The reef buoy has small seas and hot water, and NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light.

Yellowtail are the first play in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge if the current is moving. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks behind the boat.

Molasses also has the best reason for a short outside check. Short means short. If the ocean does not show birds, weed, bait, or color, get back to the reef and make dinner.

conch reef

Conch should fish steady in this setup. The sea is small, the wind is manageable, and the tide gives you a morning push into the afternoon high.

Fish 50 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around structure. Keep a deeper bait down for a mutton, but let the chum line do the main work.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half day call. It is close, comfortable, and easy to fish while keeping an eye on the sky.

Work 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. If the chum slick stretches clean, stay with it. If it hangs under the stern, move before the heat eats the morning.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look today. Southeast 5 to 10 knots and a 1 foot reef sea make the anchor work reasonable, as long as the current is not lazy.

Fish 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be good where the slick runs right. Muttons are fair deeper. Cero mackerel are fair if bait shows up and stays in the chum.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better calls. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so you can fish the reef and still know outside water is not a fantasy.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair around harder bottom. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. Offshore gets a look only if the surface gives you a reason.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today. The run is not the problem on this forecast, but I still would not drive past biting water closer to Islamorada just to keep running west.

Fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Put a deeper bait down if the current is right. If it goes slack, pick up and reset instead of waiting on a dead slick.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 ft with chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure and ledges while the current runs
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks with bait behind the boat
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water with bait present
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat stacks up
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay water with flow
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade. The sea is small enough to fish properly, and the tide gives the reef a usable window from the morning low into the afternoon high.

Mangroves are fair on structure. Muttons are a deeper bonus rod. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gathers in the slick.

Mahi and blackfin are fair because the outside is rideable and the Stream edge is not far off Molasses and Alligator. That does not make it a blind-run day. Find life first.

The bay side is heat limited. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but 91.0 F water at Vaca Key says early, careful, and no long games in stale water.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Crocker and Alligator have the cleanest snapper look if the current behaves. Davis is the smart half day move. Conch is steady. Molasses gets the best outside-water argument, but only if the ocean shows something worth chasing.

Tennessee is fine if you are already pointed that way. I would not make it the first stop from Islamorada unless the closer reefs look asleep.

Today is good reef weather with a fair outside maybe. Southeast breeze, small seas, hot water, and the normal September thunderstorm watch. Go early, fish moving water, and keep the sky close.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:18 AM EDT. No big ugly turn, but the wording did shift enough to note.

Florida Bay eased a little from the morning read. The morning had southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots with bay waters smooth to a light chop. The midday update has southeast to south winds near 5 knots, becoming east to southeast, with bay waters smooth. That is a better bay ride, still with the same shower and thunderstorm chance.

Hawk Channel stayed small. The midday forecast has southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast, with seas around 1 foot and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. That is basically the same reef sea state as the morning, just a little more south in the wind before it bends back east-southeast.

The Straits ticked up a touch. Morning had seas around 1 foot. The 10:18 AM update has seas 1 to 2 feet, with east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds. Still fishable water, but not quite as flat on paper as the first call.

So the midday call is simple. Reef still gets the best look. Bay is a little cleaner on the wording. Outside is still fair, but the Straits got just enough extra sea in the forecast that I would want birds, weed, bait, or a real edge before burning time out there.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:32 AM EDT and updated 10:18 AM EDT Friday, September 4, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Windley Key station 8723795, and Vaca Key Florida Bay station 8723970. Observations from NDBC station 41122, Long Key station LONF1, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and NOAA station 8723970.

evening addendum, 4:19 PM forecast

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:19 PM EDT, and the day did not take a hard turn. The weak North Atlantic high is still loosely running the Keys waters. Light to gentle east to southeast breeze stays in the plan overnight into Saturday morning, then the wind gets light and a little variable again during the afternoon and evening.

That is about what we saw on the water this afternoon. Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed 1.3 ft seas, a 4 second dominant period, a 3.1 second average period, and 86.5 F water at 4:30 PM EDT. Long Key had northeast wind near 2 knots with gusts near 4 knots at 4:40 PM EDT. Sombrero Key had northeast wind near 2 knots with gusts near 4 knots at 4:40 PM EDT. Vaca Key, Florida Bay was still hot, 92.8 F at 4:54 PM EDT.

For tonight, NOAA has Hawk Channel going from variable wind near 5 knots to southeast near 10 knots. Seas build from 1 foot or less to around 1 foot, with nearshore waters becoming a light chop. The Straits go east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, increasing near 10 knots, with seas building from around 1 foot to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east 2 feet at 3 seconds. Florida Bay has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots increasing near 10 knots, with bay waters becoming a light chop.

The afternoon recap is still reef first. The numbers stayed small, but the bay water is smoking hot and the forecast keeps a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the waters. Yellowtail and mangrove snapper made the cleanest sense on the reef if the current stretched the chum. A deeper mutton bait was worth soaking. Offshore stayed a maybe, not a plan, unless the surface showed birds, weed, bait, or a real color edge.

tomorrow’s outlook

Saturday looks fishable, with the same September warning label.

Hawk Channel gets east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday and Saturday night. Seas run around 1 foot, and nearshore waters stay smooth to a light chop. The Straits are also east to southeast 5 to 10 knots Saturday, with seas 1 to 2 feet and wave detail east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Saturday night holds 1 to 2 feet, with east wave detail 1 foot at 4 seconds.

Florida Bay stays easy on paper. NOAA has southeast winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday, with bay waters smooth to a light chop. Saturday night goes east to southeast 5 to 10 knots with the same smooth to light chop read.

Rain is still part of the call. NOAA keeps a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight, Saturday, and Saturday night. That does not ruin the day. It just means do not let the little sea make you lazy.

My Saturday call is Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Conch before I get cute offshore. Molasses still has an outside argument because NOAA’s September 2 Gulf Stream note puts the shoreward edge 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light and 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light. But the reef gets the first honest shot. Fish moving water, watch the sky, and make the outside earn the fuel.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:19 PM EDT Friday, September 4, 2026. Observations checked Friday evening from NDBC station 41122, Long Key station LONF1, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and NOAA station 8723970.