Captain's log, September 5, 2026, small seas and a southeast breeze

Saturday, September 5. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:32 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets another fishable reef morning.

The setup is still weak steering flow over the Keys waters. Light to gentle southeast breeze holds through the weekend, with elevated rain and thunder chances through Sunday. That is September. You can have pretty water and still need to keep one eye on the sky.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots today. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are small too. NOAA has southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and wave detail east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. That is rideable water if the storms stay away.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	southeast to south 5 to 10 knots nearshore, southeast 5 to 10 knots in the Straits
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth to a light chop
Straits	seas around 1 foot, east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast to south 5 to 10 knots, bay waters smooth to a light chop becoming smooth late
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Reef buoy	station 41122, 1.0 ft seas and 86.2 F water at 5:30 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 91.2 F at 2:06 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside look only if the water shows life

Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed 1.0 ft seas, a 3 second dominant period, a 2.4 second average period, and 86.2 F water at 5:30 AM EDT. Long Key was showing southeast wind near 8 knots with gusts near 10 knots at 5:40 AM EDT. Sombrero Key was showing east-southeast wind near 8 knots with gusts near 10 knots at 5:40 AM EDT.

That fits the forecast clean. Small sea, light breeze, hot water. The ride is the easy part. The bite still needs current.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel gets a good call today. Southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 foot put Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play.

The catch is the same one we keep getting with this light pattern. If the current is too soft, the chum line can hang under the stern and make good bottom look quiet. Do not marry a spot just because the anchor set was pretty.

The best reef window should be the water coming off the late morning low and building into the late afternoon high. If it starts running right, stay put and feed the slick.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair on paper. Southeast 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 foot make the ride easy enough for a look, but I would still want a reason before turning it into a full offshore plan.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream note, dated September 2, puts the shoreward edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close enough to check. Not close enough to promise a box.

Birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a hard color edge are worth attention. Empty blue water is still empty blue water.

florida bay

Florida Bay is smooth to a light chop, becoming smooth late. NOAA has southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots today, easing near 5 knots tonight.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 91.2 F water at 2:06 AM EDT. That is hot water in the dark. Bay fish can still eat, but early moving water matters, and fish handling needs to be quick.

tides for saturday, september 5

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean side tide read closest to the Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
High	3:35 AM EDT	1.461 ft	overnight high
Low	10:31 AM EDT	0.209 ft	late morning low
High	4:42 PM EDT	1.526 ft	late afternoon high
Low	11:10 PM EDT	0.559 ft	late evening low

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	3:26 AM EDT	1.609 ft	overnight high
Low	10:22 AM EDT	0.106 ft	late morning low
High	4:33 PM EDT	1.681 ft	late afternoon high
Low	11:01 PM EDT	0.283 ft	late evening low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	7:10 AM EDT	1.316 ft	morning high
Low	2:16 PM EDT	0.149 ft	afternoon low

For the reef, I like the late morning low into the afternoon high. That gives the yellowtail and mangrove bite a cleaner shot if the water starts sliding down the line.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good grade today. Station 41122 is showing 1.0 ft seas and 86.2 F water, and the Gulf Stream edge was listed 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light on the latest NOAA note.

Yellowtail should be the main play in 45 to 75 feet. Muttons are fair on the deeper side if the current has enough push. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks in the slick.

Molasses also has the best short outside argument. Short means short. If the surface does not show life, get back to the reef and make the day honest.

conch reef

Conch should fish steady in this light southeast pattern. The sea state is small, the tide gives a usable window, and the reef line should be comfortable.

Fish 50 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair around harder structure. A deeper bait is worth soaking, but the chum line is the main job.

davis reef

Davis is the smart half day call. It is close, manageable, and easy to fish while watching weather build over the island chain.

Work 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. If the slick runs clean, stay patient. If the current dies, move before the heat turns the bite into a waiting room.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look today. Southeast to south 5 to 10 knots and a 1 foot Hawk Channel sea make the anchor work reasonable.

Fish 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be good where the chum stretches. Muttons are fair deeper, especially on fresh bait. Ceros are fair if the small bait shows up.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better calls. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so you can fish the reef and still keep an outside option in your pocket.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair around ledges and structure. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge if the current is right.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today. The run is not the issue with this forecast. The question is whether it is worth driving past closer biting water.

Fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Put a deeper bait down if the current is steady. If the slick falls apart, reset instead of hoping the ocean changes its mind for free.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 ft with chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and cleaner current
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks when bait gathers behind the boat
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water with bait present
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat stacks up
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay water with flow
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade. Small seas let you fish the reef correctly, and the tide gives a real window after the late morning low.

Mangroves are fair on structure. Muttons are a deeper bonus rod. Cero mackerel are fair if bait settles into the slick.

Mahi and blackfin are fair because the Straits are rideable and the Stream edge is not far off Molasses and Alligator. Fair does not mean blind-run good. Find life first.

The bay side is heat limited. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but 91 degree water says early, careful, and no long fights in stale water.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the clean half day move. Crocker and Alligator have the better snapper feel if the current behaves. Conch is steady. Molasses gets the best outside-water argument, but only if the ocean gives you something to chase.

Tennessee is fine if you are already pointed that way. I would not make it the first stop from Islamorada unless the closer reefs look dead.

Today is good reef weather with a fair outside maybe. Southeast breeze, around 1 foot seas, hot water, and the normal September thunderstorm watch. Go early, fish the moving water, and do not let a flat ocean talk you into ignoring the sky.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West put out the midday coastal waters forecast at 10:19 AM EDT.

The reef call did not change much. Hawk Channel is still southeast to south 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. Florida Bay is still southeast to south 5 to 10 knots with smooth to light chop water.

The outside wording came up a touch. This morning the Straits were listed around 1 foot. The midday package has the Straits at 1 to 2 feet, with east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 4 seconds. That is not a big sea, but it is enough to keep the offshore plan honest. If the sky starts building or the water looks empty, the reef is still the better money.

Rain and thunder are still in the forecast through tonight. The breeze stays light, so storms can be the real problem even when the ocean looks easy.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:32 AM EDT and updated 10:19 AM EDT Saturday, September 5, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Windley Key station 8723795, and Vaca Key Florida Bay station 8723970. Observations from NDBC station 41122, Long Key station LONF1, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and NOAA station 8723970.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 4:17 PM EDT, and the evening read stays soft on wind but not clean on weather.

The afternoon did not give me a reason to change the main call. This is still reef-first water. Hawk Channel is listed tonight with southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits are southeast to south 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet, and the wave detail is east 1 foot at 4 seconds.

Florida Bay stays easy on the hull tonight, southeast to south winds near 5 knots and smooth bay waters. But the rain and thunder chance is still there across the zones, so flat water does not mean a free pass after dark.

For Sunday, the setup is about as gentle as September gets on paper. Hawk Channel gets south winds near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, and smooth nearshore waters. The Straits get southeast winds near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, with east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds. Florida Bay gets south winds near 5 knots and smooth bay waters.

That makes Sunday a good reef morning if the sky behaves. I would start with yellowtail and mangroves on the reef line, keep the deeper bait honest for a mutton, and only poke outside if there is life on top. Birds, weed, bait, or color. No signs, no long ride.

The catch is the same one from this morning. Weak steering flow means storms can sit around and make their own rules. Go early, fish moving water, and do not let smooth seas talk you into sleeping on thunder.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY updated 4:17 PM EDT Saturday, September 5, 2026.