Captain's log, September 6, 2026, light breeze and small reef seas

Sunday, September 6. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:30 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets a light wind morning with small water on the reef.

The pattern is weak steering flow over the Keys. Light to gentle southeast breeze holds through mid week, then the breeze freshens a little as high pressure builds in. Rain and thunder chances stay higher through this afternoon, so the ride looks easy but the sky still gets a vote.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has southeast to south winds near 5 knots today. Seas are 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters are smooth, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are small too. NOAA has southeast to south winds near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and wave detail east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. That is good enough to look around if the weather behaves. But I would still fish the reef first unless the outside water shows life.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	southeast to south near 5 knots
Hawk Channel	seas 1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	seas around 1 foot, east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds
Florida Bay	southeast to south near 5 knots, bay waters smooth
Rain	showers likely in the Straits, chance of showers and thunderstorms nearshore and bay
Reef buoy	station 41122, 0.3 ft seas and 86.2 F water at 4:30 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.4 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside only if you find signs

Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed 0.3 ft seas, a 2.8 second average period, and 86.2 F water at 4:30 AM EDT. Long Key was showing southeast wind near 5 knots with gusts near 8 knots at 4:50 AM EDT. Sombrero Key was showing east-southeast wind near 7 knots with gusts near 9 knots at 5:40 AM EDT.

That is soft water. The catch is current. Light wind makes the ride easy, but it can also make a chum slick lazy if the tide is not helping.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel gets the best grade today. Southeast to south wind near 5 knots and seas 1 foot or less put Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play.

This is anchor-and-pay-attention weather. If the current runs, the yellowtail should cooperate. If the current lays down, do not sit there admiring pretty water while the baits hang straight under the boat.

The best reef window looks like the late morning low turning into the late afternoon high. Start early, watch the sky, and be ready to reset if a cell parks over the reef line.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair. NOAA has southeast to south winds near 5 knots with seas around 1 foot, and the wave detail is east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream note, dated September 2, puts the shoreward edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps the outside option close enough to check, especially from Molasses or Alligator.

I would not make a blind offshore run out of it. Birds, weed, bait, flying fish, or a hard color edge need to be there. If it looks dead, turn back to the reef and make the day count.

florida bay

Florida Bay is easy on the hull today. NOAA has southeast to south winds near 5 knots and smooth bay waters, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 89.4 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is still hot enough to make the early moving water matter. Handle fish quick, especially on the flats and in skinny water.

tides for sunday, september 6

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read closest to the Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
High	4:49 AM EDT	1.487 ft	early morning high
Low	11:41 AM EDT	0.190 ft	late morning low
High	5:50 PM EDT	1.575 ft	late afternoon high

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	4:40 AM EDT	1.638 ft	early morning high
Low	11:32 AM EDT	0.096 ft	late morning low
High	5:41 PM EDT	1.735 ft	late afternoon high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	8:08 AM EDT	1.321 ft	morning high
Low	7:10 PM EDT	0.243 ft	evening low

For the reef, I like the low around midday and the push back toward the late afternoon high. If the current starts sliding right, stay with it.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good call today. Station 41122 is showing 0.3 ft seas and 86.2 F water, and the Gulf Stream edge was listed 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light on the latest NOAA note.

Yellowtail should be the main target in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair around harder bottom. A mutton bait is worth keeping down if the current is steady.

Molasses also has the best quick outside look. Quick means quick. If there are no birds or weed, do not burn the morning proving empty water is empty.

conch reef

Conch should fish clean in this light southeast pattern. The sea is small, the anchor work should be easy, and the tide gives a usable window after the late morning low.

Fish 50 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair tight to structure. Cero mackerel are fair if bait stacks up in the slick.

davis reef

Davis is the smart half day reef call. Short run, smooth water, and plenty of room to keep an eye on weather building over the island chain.

Work 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. If the slick stretches, stay patient. If it folds under the stern, move before the heat makes everyone stubborn.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look today. Southeast to south near 5 knots and a 1 foot or less Hawk Channel sea make it easy to set up right.

Fish 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be good where the chum runs. Muttons are fair on the deeper side with live bait or fresh cut bait.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better calls. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so you can fish the reef and keep one outside option in your pocket.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair on ledges and hard bottom. Muttons are fair if the current has enough push to keep the baits honest.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today. The run is not the problem with this forecast. The question is whether it is worth passing closer reef water that should also be good.

Fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Drop a deeper bait if the water moves. If the current dies, reset instead of hoping the same anchor line turns into magic.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 ft with chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and clean current
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks when bait gathers behind the boat
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water with bait present
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat stacks up
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay water with flow
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade. The reef is calm enough to fish correctly, and the tide gives a better chance once water starts moving after the late morning low.

Mangroves are fair on structure. Muttons are a deeper bonus rod. Cero mackerel are fair if bait settles in the slick instead of scattering.

Mahi and blackfin stay fair, not great. The Straits are rideable and the Stream edge is close on paper, but I would need surface life before turning today into an offshore hunt.

The bay side is heat limited again. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but near 90 degree water says early, careful, and no long fights in stale water.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the clean half day move. Crocker and Alligator have the better snapper feel if the current behaves. Conch is steady. Molasses gets the best outside-water argument because the Stream edge is close, but the signs need to be real.

Tennessee is fine if you are already pointed that way. I would not drive past biting water just to say I ran farther.

Today is good reef weather with a fair outside maybe. Southeast to south near 5 knots, 1 foot or less in Hawk Channel, around 1 foot in the Straits, hot water, and normal September thunderstorm risk. Go early, fish the moving water, and do not let slick-calm water talk you into ignoring thunder.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:30 AM EDT Sunday, September 6, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Windley Key station 8723795, and Vaca Key Florida Bay station 8723970. Observations from NDBC station 41122, Long Key station LONF1, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and NOAA station 8723970.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:13 AM EDT. The water did not get bigger. If anything, the inshore and reef-side wind backed off a touch.

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile is now light and variable near 5 knots this afternoon, with seas 1 foot or less and nearshore waters smooth. That is a small change from the morning southeast to south wind near 5 knots. Same easy ride, less direction to the breeze.

Florida Bay made the same move, variable near 5 knots with smooth bay waters. The Gulfside and bayside waters from Craig Key toward Seven Mile are also light and variable near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth.

The Straits did not change much. NOAA still has southeast to south winds near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and wave detail east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. The bigger note is weather, showers are likely in the Straits this afternoon with a chance of thunderstorms. Nearshore, bay, and Gulfside waters carry a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

So the call stays about the same. Reef first. Keep the outside look honest if birds, weed, bait, or a color edge show up. But do not ignore the sky just because the sea is laying down flat.

Midday source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:13 AM EDT Sunday, September 6, 2026.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 4:21 PM EDT. The evening read stayed small, but the weather still has teeth.

The afternoon did not change the main call much. Hawk Channel stays light tonight with variable winds near 5 knots becoming southeast to south. Seas are 1 foot or less, and nearshore waters stay smooth. Florida Bay gets the same soft setup, variable winds near 5 knots becoming southeast to south, with smooth bay waters.

The Straits are still rideable on the numbers. NOAA has southeast to south winds near 5 knots tonight, seas around 1 foot, and wave detail east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. That is easy water for the ride, but NOAA keeps a chance of showers and thunderstorms in every local zone. September can look flat and still make you pay attention.

For Monday, the water stays gentle. Hawk Channel is forecast southeast to south near 5 knots with seas 1 foot or less and smooth nearshore waters. The Straits stay around 1 foot, with east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds. Florida Bay has south winds near 5 knots becoming variable, and bay waters stay smooth.

That makes tomorrow another reef-first day. Davis, Crocker, Conch, Alligator, and Molasses are all fishable if the sky behaves. Yellowtail still get the best look in 40 to 80 feet if the current runs. Mangroves are fair on structure, and a deeper bait for a mutton is worth the space if the slick stretches right.

The outside is a maybe, not a promise. NOAA’s September 2 Gulf Stream note still has the shoreward edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close enough to check from the reef line. Not close enough to burn fuel without birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a color edge.

The simple plan for Monday is early reef, moving water, and one eye on the clouds. Light wind helps the crew. It does not cancel the thunderstorm risk.

Evening source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:21 PM EDT Sunday, September 6, 2026. Gulf Stream edge positions from the NOAA Key West forecast as of September 2, 2026, courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.