Captain's log, September 7, 2026, small water and a soft southeast breeze

Monday, September 7. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:31 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets another small-water morning.

The pattern is weak steering flow over the Keys. Light to gentle southeast breezes hold through mid week, then the breeze freshens a little as high pressure builds in. Rain and thunder chances stay elevated through Tuesday, so this is good riding weather with the usual September warning attached.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile, NOAA has variable winds near 5 knots becoming southeast today. Seas are 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters are smooth, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are easy on the numbers. NOAA has southeast winds near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and wave detail east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. That is enough to look outside if the sky behaves, but I would still make the reef earn the first part of the morning.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	variable near 5 knots becoming southeast
Hawk Channel	seas 1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	seas around 1 foot, east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds
Florida Bay	variable near 5 knots becoming southeast, bay waters smooth
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Reef buoy	station 41122, 0.7 ft seas and 86.5 F water at 4:00 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Overall call	good reef day, fair outside only with signs

Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed 0.7 ft seas, a 2.1 second average period, and 86.5 F water at 4:00 AM EDT. The next reading at 4:30 AM EDT showed 86.0 F water, but wave height was not reported. Long Key was showing southwest wind near 8 knots with gusts near 9 knots at 5:40 AM EDT. Sombrero Key was showing south wind near 3 knots with gusts near 5 knots at 5:40 AM EDT.

That is light water. The ride should not be the hard part. The hard part is finding enough moving water to make the chum work and staying honest when clouds start stacking.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel gets the best call today. Variable wind near 5 knots becoming southeast and seas 1 foot or less put Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play.

This is comfortable anchor weather. It can also get lazy if the current quits. If the chum line runs clean, stay with it. If the baits hang under the boat, move before the heat makes the crew quiet.

The better reef window looks like the midday low turning into the evening high. Start early, watch the sky, and use the moving water when it shows up.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair. Southeast winds near 5 knots and seas around 1 foot make it rideable, with NOAA calling east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream note, dated September 2, puts the shoreward edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps the outside option close enough to check from the reef line.

I would not call it a blind-run offshore day. Birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a hard color edge need to be there. If the surface looks empty, turn back to the reef and make the day count.

florida bay

Florida Bay is smooth today. NOAA has variable winds near 5 knots becoming southeast, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 88.5 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is still hot water. Flats fish can eat, but early moving water matters, and fish handling needs to be quick.

tides for monday, september 7

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read closest to the Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	12:18 AM EDT	0.480 ft	overnight low
High	6:01 AM EDT	1.557 ft	morning high
Low	12:46 PM EDT	0.143 ft	midday low
High	6:51 PM EDT	1.651 ft	evening high

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
Low	12:09 AM EDT	0.244 ft	overnight low
High	5:52 AM EDT	1.716 ft	morning high
Low	12:37 PM EDT	0.072 ft	midday low
High	6:42 PM EDT	1.819 ft	evening high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	9:14 AM EDT	1.320 ft	morning high
Low	8:10 PM EDT	0.312 ft	evening low

For the reef, I like the water coming off the midday low and building toward the evening high. If it starts sliding right, stay in the slick and feed them.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good call today. Station 41122 showed small seas and reef water in the mid 80s, and the Gulf Stream edge was listed 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light on the latest NOAA note.

Yellowtail should be the main target in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair around harder bottom. A mutton bait is worth keeping down if the current has enough push.

Molasses also has the cleanest short outside look. Short means short. If there are no birds, weed, bait, or color, do not spend the morning proving empty water is empty.

conch reef

Conch should fish steady in this light southeast pattern. The sea state is small enough to set up clean, and the afternoon water should give the chum a better chance.

Fish 50 to 80 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair tight to structure. Cero mackerel are fair if small bait stacks in the slick.

davis reef

Davis is the easy half day call. Short run, smooth nearshore water, and plenty of room to keep an eye on weather building over the islands.

Work 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. If the current folds under the stern, pull and reset. Pretty anchor sets do not fill the box by themselves.

crocker reef

Crocker has a good snapper look today. Light wind and 1 foot or less in Hawk Channel make it comfortable, but the bite still needs tide.

Fish 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be good where the chum stretches. Muttons are fair on the deeper side with live bait or fresh cut bait.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better calls. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so you can fish the reef and keep one outside option nearby.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair on ledges and hard bottom. Muttons are fair if the current holds long enough to keep the deeper bait honest.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today. The forecast does not make the run the problem. The question is whether it is worth passing closer reef water that should also be good.

Fish 40 to 70 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Drop a deeper bait if the water moves. If the slick dies, reset instead of waiting for the ocean to apologize.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 ft with chum and moving water
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and clean current
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks when bait gathers behind the boat
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only if birds, weed, bait, or color show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water with bait present
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat stacks up
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay water with flow
Tarpon	fair	bridges, channels, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade. The reef is calm enough to fish correctly, and the tide gives a usable window once water starts moving after the midday low.

Mangroves are fair on structure. Muttons are a deeper bonus rod. Cero mackerel are fair if bait settles into the slick.

Mahi and blackfin stay fair. The Straits are rideable and the Stream edge is close on paper, but I would need real surface life before turning today into an offshore hunt.

The bay side is still heat limited. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but upper 80s bay water says early, careful, and no long fights in dead water.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the clean half day move. Crocker and Alligator have the better snapper feel if the current behaves. Conch is steady. Molasses gets the best outside-water argument because the Stream edge is close, but the signs need to be real.

Tennessee is fine if you are already pointed that way. I would not drive past biting water just to say I ran farther.

Today is good reef weather with a fair outside maybe. Variable wind near 5 knots becoming southeast, 1 foot or less in Hawk Channel, around 1 foot in the Straits, hot water, and normal September thunderstorm risk. Go early, fish the moving water, and do not let slick-calm water talk you into ignoring thunder.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:24 AM EDT.

The main change is the wind direction for this afternoon. The morning forecast had variable wind near 5 knots becoming southeast. The midday package now has southwest winds near 5 knots in Hawk Channel, southwest to west near 5 knots on the Bayside and Gulfside waters, and south to southwest 5 to 10 knots in the Straits.

The sea state did not really move. Hawk Channel is still 1 foot or less with smooth nearshore waters. The Straits are still around 1 foot, with east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 3 seconds. Florida Bay is smooth, now with southwest winds near 5 knots for the afternoon.

Rain chances are still in the forecast. NOAA calls for a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, then a broader chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight. That keeps the reef call mostly the same. Fish the moving water, keep the sky honest, and do not let a light wind report make you lazy.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:31 AM EDT and updated 10:24 AM EDT Monday, September 7, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Windley Key station 8723795, and Vaca Key Florida Bay station 8723970. Observations from NDBC station 41122, Long Key station LONF1, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and NOAA station 8723970.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West issued the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:23 PM EDT.

The afternoon did not turn into a hard-riding mess. It stayed small, just like the morning numbers said it probably would. The better part of the day was still the reef and nearshore water, with enough light wind to make the boat sit right when the current behaved. The September part of the deal was the sky. A light wind forecast does not cancel showers, and NOAA kept rain and thunder chances in the package.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the reef line has variable winds near 5 knots becoming southeast. Seas are 1 foot or less, nearshore waters are smooth, and there is a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

The Straits are still easy on paper tonight. NOAA has variable winds near 5 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 2 seconds. That is clean enough for a ride, but not clean enough to ignore thunderheads.

Florida Bay is smooth tonight with variable winds near 5 knots becoming east to southeast. Same rain story there, a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday keeps the small-water pattern. Hawk Channel gets southeast to south winds near 5 knots becoming variable, seas 1 foot or less, and smooth nearshore waters. The Straits get variable winds near 5 knots becoming northeast to east 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 2 seconds. Florida Bay stays variable near 5 knots with smooth water.

That makes Tuesday another reef-first call. Yellowtail and mangroves get the cleanest setup if the current stretches the chum. Muttons are still a bonus rod on the deeper edge. The outside can be checked from the reef line, but mahi and blackfin still need signs before burning the morning offshore.

Source note, evening update: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:23 PM EDT Monday, September 7, 2026.