Captain's log, September 9, 2026, east breeze building, reef still workable

Wednesday, September 9. NOAA Key West put the 4:26 AM coastal waters forecast on the board, and the Islamorada run is still fishable. Not glassy like yesterday morning, but workable.

The high-pressure ridge is settling back across Florida. That gives us east to southeast breeze, light early and a little firmer as the day goes on. NOAA has east winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to near 10 knots today for Florida Bay, Hawk Channel, and the Straits. The rain chances stay around too, with showers and thunderstorms possible.

Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile is forecast for seas around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop into a light chop. The Straits are a touch bigger, 1 to 2 feet with an east 2 foot wave at 4 seconds.

That is a reef day first. You can run outside, but the reef is the cleaner bet until the ocean shows birds, bait, weed, or a real color change. September lets you make a plan, then throws weather at it just to see if you are paying attention.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east 5 to 10 knots, increasing to near 10 knots
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters becoming a light chop
Straits	seas 1 to 2 feet, east 2 feet at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	smooth to a light chop, becoming a light chop
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Nearby ocean water	Long Key C-MAN, 85.3 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.6 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef comfort early, fair to good bite if the current lines up

Long Key C-MAN showed calm to near calm wind around 5:18 AM EDT, with gusts just under 1 knot and water at 85.3 F. Sombrero Key was already showing more east in it, east wind around 8 knots with gusts near 10 knots at 5:40 AM EDT.

So the trend makes sense. Soft early, more organized east breeze later. The reef should still ride fine, but the anchor set may get fussier as the day gets older.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel gets a good comfort grade this morning. East wind 5 to 10 knots increasing near 10 knots and seas around 1 foot keep Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play.

The east wind matters. If the current runs west or southwest, the boat can lay nice and the chum slick can stretch. If wind and current fight each other, the stern swings, the baits hang wrong, and the bite gets picky fast.

I would not overthink the run. Start with a reef that gives you good bottom and clean water without burning the whole morning. If the slick works, feed it. If it does not, move before the heat gets rude.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable but not automatic. NOAA has east winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and an east 2 foot wave at 4 seconds.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream note, dated September 2, puts the shoreward edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is close enough to make an outside look tempting, especially from the Upper Keys.

Tempting is not a plan by itself. Mahi and blackfin need signs. Birds, flyers, scattered weed, bait dimples, something. If the outside water looks empty, do not donate half the day to blue water just because the ride is decent.

florida bay

Florida Bay has east wind 5 to 10 knots increasing near 10 knots, with bay waters smooth to a light chop becoming a light chop. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 89.6 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is hot water. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still eat, but early moving water is the whole game. Long midday drifts in dead hot water are mostly a good way to cook yourself.

tides for wednesday, september 9

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read closest to the Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	2:12 AM EDT	0.232 ft	overnight low
High	8:02 AM EDT	1.748 ft	morning high
Low	2:37 PM EDT	0.061 ft	afternoon low
High	8:33 PM EDT	1.790 ft	evening high

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
Low	2:03 AM EDT	0.118 ft	overnight low
High	7:53 AM EDT	1.925 ft	morning high
Low	2:28 PM EDT	0.031 ft	afternoon low
High	8:24 PM EDT	1.972 ft	evening high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	2:35 AM EDT	0.933 ft	overnight high
Low	4:48 AM EDT	0.813 ft	early low
High	12:07 PM EDT	1.302 ft	midday high
Low	6:09 PM EDT	0.578 ft	evening low

For the reef, I like the fall after the morning high. The better current window should be from after 8 AM into the early afternoon low, if the wind lets the boat sit right. The first of the evening rise can work too, weather permitting.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses is a good comfort call, especially early. The Gulf Stream edge was noted 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light, so this reef gets the best argument for a quick outside check if the surface has life.

For the reef itself, yellowtail are the first play in 45 to 75 feet. Mangroves are fair tight to structure. Muttons are a fair deeper shot if the current moves and the bait is worth soaking.

conch reef

Conch should fish clean enough in today’s sea state. East breeze near 10 knots is not a problem by itself, but it can make the boat sit funny if the current is weak.

Start in 50 to 80 feet and let the chum tell you what is going on. If the slick stretches and the fish rise, stay. If the chum falls straight down or slides under the boat, reset.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half day call. Shorter run, plenty of bottom, and not much need to gamble if the crew wants steady action.

Fish 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Keep a deeper bait honest when the current gives you room, but do not let one mutton rod slow down a working snapper bite.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a fair to good snapper call. The afternoon low gives it a decent current window if the water stays clean.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be the main target. Mangroves are fair. Cero mackerel can show in the slick if bait piles in and the water has enough motion.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the stronger calls today. NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 10 NM southeast of the light, and the reef should be comfortable with Hawk Channel around 1 foot.

Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet if the current behaves. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. If you peek outside, make it a disciplined look, not a long wander.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but I would not drive past biting water to get there. With east breeze building toward 10 knots, closer productive reef is worth more than extra miles.

Fish 40 to 70 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the cleaner play. Deeper edge muttons are fair, mainly where the current has enough push to keep the baits straight.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 ft with chum and clean current
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and shaded current edges
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait gathers
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only with birds, weed, bait, or color
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water or humps when bait is present
Wahoo	fair	cleaner edge water near the Stream, not a blind guarantee
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner flow on the bay side
Tarpon	fair	channels, bridges, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef is workable and the tide range is useful. The whole deal depends on the current. A pretty ocean with no movement is just pretty.

Mangroves and muttons are fair. Cero mackerel are fair where the bait stacks in the slick. Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo are outside possibilities, but I would make the ocean prove it before leaving good reef water.

The bay side is heat limited. Vaca Key at 89.6 F before sunrise is enough warning. Fish early, handle fish clean, and do not grind hot dead water just to say you tried.

captain’s call

Reef first. Davis is the smart half day move. Crocker and Alligator get my best snapper look if the falling tide sets up right. Conch is steady. Molasses is the best reef for mixing in an outside check, but only if the surface shows something worth chasing.

Tennessee is fine if the plan already points west. I would not make it the first stop from Islamorada unless the closer reefs are not showing life.

Today is good working water, not a free pass. East breeze builds, seas stay manageable, and storms are still on the menu. Go early, use the fall, and keep the radar where you can see it.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:17 AM EDT. The morning read still holds for the afternoon, but the evening bump is a little clearer now.

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through Seven Mile, the afternoon stays east wind near 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters a light chop. That is basically the same reef call from this morning. Fishable water, just pay attention to the sky.

The Straits are still 1 to 2 feet this afternoon with an east 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. Tonight is where the update matters. NOAA now has east wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and an east 3 foot wave at 4 seconds. That is not a blowout, but it is a firmer ride than the morning snapshot suggested for anyone thinking about a late outside run or running home after dark.

Florida Bay also ticks up tonight. The afternoon is east wind near 10 knots with a light chop, then east 10 to 15 knots tonight with a light to moderate chop. The bay is still usable, but the hot water note from this morning did not magically go away.

The bigger pattern did not flip. Ridging across the South is becoming better established over Florida, with light east to southeast breeze this morning becoming gentle to moderate over the next day or so. NOAA also notes the breeze should peak in the evening and overnight, then lull during the day. A series of low-level moisture swaths keeps showers and storms in the forecast.

What changed since morning:

factor	morning read	midday read
Hawk Channel afternoon	east 5 to 10 knots increasing near 10, seas around 1 foot	east near 10 knots, seas around 1 foot
Straits afternoon	east 5 to 10 knots increasing near 10, seas 1 to 2 feet	east near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet
Straits tonight	building breeze expected	east 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet
Florida Bay tonight	breeze building later	east 10 to 15 knots, light to moderate chop
Rain	showers and thunderstorms possible	chance of showers and thunderstorms remains

So the call stays reef first. The afternoon is still workable from Molasses through Alligator and down the chain if the current behaves. But I would tighten up the offshore leash as the day gets older. The Straits get a little punchier tonight, and storms can make a 2 to 3 foot forecast feel like work fast.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West issued the 4:27 PM EDT coastal waters forecast, and the afternoon pretty much played the way the morning chart said it would. The east breeze got more organized, not ugly, just enough to remind everybody that September is still September.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the reef line is east wind 10 to 15 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. That is fishable water for the reef, but it is not the kind of evening where I would get cute with a late outside wander.

The Straits are the firmer side of the board tonight. NOAA has east winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and an east 3 foot wave at 4 seconds. Short-period east sea like that can stack up and make a small forecast feel busier than it looks on paper, especially if a shower line gets involved.

Florida Bay is also up a notch tonight with east winds 10 to 15 knots and bay waters a light to moderate chop. That is still usable, but between the evening breeze and the hot bay water from this morning, I would keep the plan simple.

Tomorrow looks workable. NOAA has east to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots for Hawk Channel with seas 1 to 2 feet and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The Straits stay east to southeast 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet and an east to southeast 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. Florida Bay backs down a little, east to southeast near 10 knots and a light chop.

The best Thursday call is still reef first. Snapper water from Molasses through Alligator should be in play if the current behaves. The outside edge is not off limits, but it needs signs before it deserves fuel. Birds, weed, flyers, color change, something real. Otherwise, grind the reef, keep the chum right, and move when the bite goes stale.

Tomorrow preview:

area	thursday call
Florida Bay	good comfort, east to southeast near 10 knots, light chop
Hawk Channel	good to fair, east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet
Straits	fair, east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Best bet	reef snapper first, outside only with life on the surface

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 AM EDT, updated 10:17 AM EDT, and issued again at 4:27 PM EDT Wednesday, September 9, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Windley Key station 8723795, and Vaca Key Florida Bay station 8723970. Observations from NDBC Long Key station LKWF1, NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970. Molasses Reef station MLRF1 was checked, but the NDBC station page showed no recent data available at publish time.