Captain's log, September 10, 2026, reef first with east southeast breeze

Thursday, September 10. NOAA Key West put the 4:26 AM coastal waters forecast on the board, and Islamorada gets another reef-first setup.

The breeze is not mean this morning. It is east to southeast near 10 knots for Hawk Channel, with seas 1 to 2 feet and nearshore waters a light chop. The Straits are a little bigger, 2 to 3 feet, with an east to southeast 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. That is fishable, but it is also the kind of short-period sea that gets old if you run around just hoping.

NOAA’s larger pattern is pretty simple. Ridging over the southeastern United States and Florida keeps gentle to moderate east to southeast breeze in the Keys. The breeze should peak in the evening and overnight, then lull during the day. Moisture moving through the lower levels keeps showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

So the plan is not complicated. Reef first. Watch the radar. If the outside edge has birds, weed, flyers, or a clean color break, take a look. If it is empty, do not donate the morning to blue water.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east to southeast near 10 knots
Hawk Channel	seas 1 to 2 feet, nearshore waters a light chop
Straits	seas 2 to 3 feet, east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds
Florida Bay	light chop
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Nearby ocean water	Long Key C-MAN, 84.6 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 89.1 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef plan, fair outside plan unless the ocean shows life

Long Key C-MAN was showing southeast wind around 9 knots with gusts around 11 knots at 5:18 AM EDT, with water at 84.6 F. Sombrero Key had southeast to east wind around 3 knots with gusts near 9 knots at 5:40 AM EDT, though earlier readings there were jumpier. Vaca Key, Florida Bay had south-southeast wind around 4 knots with gusts near 7 knots and water at 89.1 F at 5:54 AM EDT.

That lines up with the forecast. Light enough early to work, but still east in the pattern. The farther outside you go, the more the 2 to 3 foot Straits forecast matters.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the comfort lane today. NOAA has east to southeast winds near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light chop from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile.

That puts Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play. The ride should be fine for most crews, but the bite still needs current. If the wind and current line up, chum gets honest and the stern settles. If they fight each other, you will know it fast.

Start where you have clean water and good bottom without burning half the morning. September rewards moving when the slick looks dead.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair. NOAA has east to southeast winds near 10 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and an east to southeast 3 foot wave at 5 seconds.

That is not terrible water, but it is not automatic either. A short 5-second sea can feel busier than the number looks, especially near showers. The Gulf Stream edge note from September 2 puts the shoreward edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light, so the Upper Keys get the closest argument for a quick outside look.

Make the ocean prove it. Birds, weed, flyers, bait, color, something. Without that, the reef is the better use of fuel.

florida bay

Florida Bay has east to southeast winds near 10 knots and bay waters a light chop today. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 89.1 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That water is hot. Bay fishing can still happen, but I would want moving water and an early start. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon do not owe anybody a bite in dead warm water.

tides for thursday, september 10

Whale Harbor Channel is the closest ocean-side tide read for the Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	3:01 AM EDT	0.120 ft	overnight low
High	8:54 AM EDT	1.820 ft	morning high
Low	3:25 PM EDT	0.061 ft	afternoon low
High	9:17 PM EDT	1.820 ft	evening high

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
Low	2:52 AM EDT	0.061 ft	overnight low
High	8:45 AM EDT	2.005 ft	morning high
Low	3:16 PM EDT	0.031 ft	afternoon low
High	9:08 PM EDT	2.005 ft	evening high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	3:02 AM EDT	0.991 ft	overnight high
Low	5:50 AM EDT	0.747 ft	early low
High	2:16 PM EDT	1.309 ft	afternoon high
Low	6:44 PM EDT	0.686 ft	evening low

For the reef, the fall after the morning high is the cleanest window on paper. That puts the better current from midmorning into the afternoon low, if the wind lets the boat sit right. The evening rise can work too, but watch the storms and the overnight breeze bump.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good call today, mostly because it gives you reef options and the closest Gulf Stream edge note. NOAA had the shoreward edge 6 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of September 2.

Fish 45 to 75 feet for yellowtail. Mangroves are fair where the structure has shade and life. A deeper bait is worth soaking if the current has enough push, but do not let one mutton rod slow down a working snapper bite.

conch reef

Conch is steady in this setup. East to southeast wind near 10 knots should not beat it up, and Hawk Channel at 1 to 2 feet keeps the ride honest.

Start in 50 to 80 feet. If the chum stretches and the fish rise, stay with it. If the slick falls straight down or slides under the boat, reset before the crew gets bored and sunburned.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half day call. It keeps the run short, gives you good bottom, and lets you work around passing weather without making a production out of it.

Fish 40 to 60 feet for yellowtail and mangroves. Keep fresh baits ready. The better snapper bite should come when the falling tide starts to move.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a fair to good snapper call. The sea state is fine, but it still needs clean water and enough current to keep the chum line alive.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are the main play. Mangroves are fair. Cero mackerel can slide into the slick if bait stacks up.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better calls on the board. NOAA’s Gulf Stream note had the edge 10 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, so there is a real reason to watch the outside water from there.

Reef first. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet if the current behaves. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. If you look offshore, keep it disciplined and come back to the meat if the surface is empty.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but I would not drive past biting water to get there. With east to southeast breeze and a shower chance, closer productive reef is worth more than extra miles.

Fish 40 to 70 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the cleanest targets. Deeper edge muttons are fair when the current gives you a straight bait.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 ft with chum and clean current
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and shaded current edges
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait gathers
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only with birds, weed, bait, or color
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water or humps when bait is present
Wahoo	fair	cleaner edge water near the Stream, not a blind guarantee
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay flow and cooler low-light windows
Tarpon	fair	channels, bridges, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef is workable and the tide range is useful. The whole thing still depends on current. A pretty ocean with no movement is just pretty.

Mangroves and muttons are fair. Cero mackerel are fair where bait gathers in the slick. Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo are possible outside, but the Straits need visible life before they deserve a long leash.

The bay side is heat limited. Vaca Key at 89.1 F before sunrise says plenty. Fish early, handle fish clean, and do not grind hot dead water just because it looked good on a map.

captain’s call

Reef first today. Davis is the smart short run. Crocker and Alligator get my best snapper look if the fall after the morning high sets up right. Conch is steady. Molasses is the best reef for mixing in an outside check, but only if the surface gives you a reason.

Tennessee is fine if the plan already points west. I would not make it the first stop from Islamorada unless the closer reefs are not showing life.

This is good working water, not a free pass. East to southeast breeze stays manageable, seas stay fishable on the reef, and storms are still part of the day. Go early, use the tide, and keep the radar where you can see it.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 AM EDT Thursday, September 10, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Windley Key station 8723795, and Vaca Key Florida Bay station 8723970. Observations from NDBC Long Key station LKWF1, NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970. Molasses Reef station MLRF1 was checked, but the NDBC realtime and latest observation endpoints did not return recent data at publish time.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:25 AM EDT, and the day is still mostly behaving like the morning report called it.

Hawk Channel did not change much. This afternoon still sits at east to southeast wind near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light chop. That keeps the reef in play. It is still a working reef day, not a lounge chair day, but the ride has not taken a bad turn.

The Straits got a little firmer in the wording. The morning read had the outside at east to southeast near 10 knots with 2 to 3 foot seas. The midday update has east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Same sea height, a touch more breeze in the forecast, and still short-period water.

Florida Bay stays manageable on paper with east to southeast wind near 10 knots and bay waters a light chop. The heat is still the issue back there. If the water is dead and hot, move until you find flow.

The real change is the rain wording. NOAA now has showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon for Florida Bay, Hawk Channel, the Gulfside, and the Straits. That does not shut the day down, but it means keep the radar open and do not pretend one dark cell is just scenery.

area	morning call	midday update	read
Hawk Channel	east to southeast near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet	east to southeast near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet	good
Straits	east to southeast near 10 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet	east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, decreasing near 10 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet	fair
Florida Bay	east to southeast near 10 knots, light chop	east to southeast near 10 knots, light chop	good
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms	showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms	fair

For the rest of the afternoon, I would still fish the reef first. The fall toward the 3:25 PM Whale Harbor Channel low is the window to watch. If the current is right and the storms stay split, yellowtail should still be the cleanest bet. If the sky starts stacking up, shorten the run, keep the boat pointed toward home, and do not get married to the outside edge.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:25 AM EDT Thursday, September 10, 2026.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the 4:24 PM coastal waters forecast, and the evening read stays in the same lane. The breeze is still east to southeast. Not flat calm, not ugly, just that steady September push that makes you fish smart instead of wandering.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is forecast east to southeast near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters going from a light chop to a light to moderate chop. The Straits are east to southeast 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet, and the wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds.

That short-period outside water is the part to respect. A 3 foot sea at 5 seconds is fishable for the right crew, but it is not the same thing as a long lazy roll. Add scattered showers and storms, and the outside should stay on a short leash after dark.

The afternoon call held up fine. Reef was still the cleanest plan on paper. Yellowtail and mangrove bottom in 40 to 80 feet stayed the smart meat run, while mahi, blackfin, and wahoo needed visible life outside before they deserved much fuel.

tomorrow’s outlook

Friday looks like another reef-first day. NOAA has Hawk Channel east to southeast near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, nearshore waters a light chop, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The Straits are east to southeast 10 to 15 knots, becoming east near 10 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds.

Florida Bay gets east to southeast winds near 10 knots and a light chop Friday. That is manageable water, but the bay is still warm. I would want an early start and moving water before leaning too hard on the flats.

For the Islamorada reef line, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Molasses all stay in play. Start where the ride and the current make sense. If the chum hangs right and the water is clean, stay with the snapper. If the slick dies or the storms start building, move or shorten the day.

The outside edge can be checked, especially around Molasses and Alligator with the Gulf Stream edge still noted close to the reef earlier this month. But it needs signs. Birds, weed, flyers, bait, or a clean color edge. Without that, Friday is better spent putting fish in the box on the reef.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:24 PM EDT Thursday, September 10, 2026.