Captain's log, September 11, 2026, reef water stays in play

Friday, September 11. NOAA Key West corrected the 4:38 AM coastal waters forecast, and the Islamorada reef line gets another workable September setup.

The breeze is mostly east to southeast. Hawk Channel is forecast near 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and nearshore waters a light chop. The Straits start a little busier at 10 to 15 knots, easing to 5 to 10 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to around 2 feet. The wave detail outside is east to southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds.

That is fishable water. It is also September water, so do not sleep on the sky. NOAA still has a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Bay, Hawk Channel, and the Straits. Go early, keep the radar where you can see it, and do not turn a clean half day into a weather argument.

NOAA’s larger pattern has ridging across the southeastern United States and Florida. That keeps mostly gentle east to southeasterly breeze around for the next few days. The same forecast says the breeze should peak in the evening and overnight, then lull during the day. Low level moisture stays around, so shower chances are not going away.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east to southeast near 10 knots on the reef
Hawk Channel	seas 1 to 2 ft, nearshore waters a light chop
Straits	10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots, seas 2 to 3 ft subsiding near 2 ft
Florida Bay	east to southeast near 10 knots, light chop
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Nearby ocean water	Long Key C-MAN, 85.6 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef plan, fair outside plan, watch storms

Long Key C-MAN was showing wind from 150 degrees at about 13 knots, gusting 15 knots, at 5:18 AM EDT. Sombrero Key was showing east-southeast wind around 10 knots, gusting 12 knots, at 5:40 AM EDT. Vaca Key, Florida Bay, had 88.0 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

Those readings line up with the forecast. The reef is the cleanest plan. The outside can be worth a look from the Upper Keys if the surface gives you something real, but I would not burn the morning blind.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel gets the best call today. NOAA has east to southeast winds near 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light chop from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile.

That keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs fishable. It should be a comfortable enough ride for most charter crews, but the bite still comes down to current. If the chum line lays out and the stern sits right, stay. If the slick drops under the boat or runs sideways, move before the box stays empty too long.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair, not bad. NOAA has east to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to around 2 feet, with an east to southeast 2 foot wave at 5 seconds.

A 5-second sea can feel busier than the number looks. With storms in the forecast, the outside edge should be treated like a bonus, not the whole plan. Birds, weed, bait, flyers, color, something has to be there.

The Gulf Stream edge is close enough to matter on the Upper Keys side. NOAA’s September 11 note puts the shoreward edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That makes Molasses and Alligator the better places to keep an eye offshore without forgetting why you left the dock.

florida bay

Florida Bay is manageable on paper. NOAA has east to southeast winds near 10 knots and bay waters a light chop.

The heat is the limiter. Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 88.0 F water before sunrise. Bay fishing can still happen, but I want moving water, shade when I can get it, and an early start. Dead hot water is not worth grinding just because the boat can float there.

tides for friday, september 11

Whale Harbor Channel is the closest ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	3:47 AM EDT	0.044 ft	overnight low
High	9:41 AM EDT	1.858 ft	morning high
Low	4:11 PM EDT	0.097 ft	afternoon low
High	9:59 PM EDT	1.814 ft	evening high

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
Low	3:38 AM EDT	0.022 ft	overnight low
High	9:32 AM EDT	2.047 ft	morning high
Low	4:02 PM EDT	0.049 ft	afternoon low
High	9:50 PM EDT	1.999 ft	evening high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay, gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	3:25 AM EDT	1.051 ft	overnight high
Low	6:46 AM EDT	0.662 ft	early low
High	3:20 PM EDT	1.293 ft	afternoon high
Low	7:19 PM EDT	0.765 ft	evening low

For the reef, the fall after the morning high is the window I like on paper. That gives you midmorning through the afternoon low to find moving water. If the current sets clean, yellowtail should show. If the wind and current fight, keep the anchor decision quick.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good call today. The Gulf Stream edge note has it 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, so this is the easiest reef on the list to pair with a disciplined outside check.

Fish 45 to 75 feet for yellowtail. Keep a deeper bait down if the current gives you a clean line. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge, but I would not let one big-fish rod slow down a working snapper bite.

conch reef

Conch is steady in this wind. East to southeast near 10 knots should keep the ride reasonable, and Hawk Channel at 1 to 2 feet gives you room to work.

Start around 50 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are the main play. Mangroves are fair where the bottom has shade and enough water movement. If bait piles up in the chum, keep a wire-ready rod close for cero mackerel.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half day call. It keeps the run short, gives you good bottom, and lets you work around weather without making the day more dramatic than it needs to be.

Fish 40 to 60 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the cleanest targets. The best part of the day should be after the morning high when the water starts falling toward the 4:11 PM Whale Harbor Channel low.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good snapper look if the water is clean. The sea state is fine. The question is current.

Work 55 to 80 feet and do not babysit a dead slick. If the chum pulls right, yellowtail should be the bread and butter. If it goes soft, pick up and find a better edge.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better calls today. NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, close enough to keep the outside in the conversation without making it the whole trip.

Reef first. Yellowtail should be good in 45 to 75 feet with clean flow. Muttons are fair deeper. If the outside has birds or a color edge, take a smart look and come back to the reef before the clock gets away from you.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but I would not drive past biting water to get there. With the same east to southeast breeze and storms still possible, closer productive reef is worth more than extra miles.

Fish 40 to 70 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the best bet. Deeper edge muttons are fair when the current runs straight enough to fish a bait clean.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 ft with chum and clean current
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure, ledges, and shaded current edges
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait stacks up
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only with birds, weed, bait, or color
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water or humps when bait is present
Wahoo	fair	cleaner edge water near the Stream, not a blind guarantee
Bonefish	poor to fair	early bay-side moving water before the heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay flow and low-light windows
Tarpon	fair	channels, bridges, and evening current

Yellowtail get the top grade because the reef has the best mix of fishable seas and useful tide. Mangroves are fair around better structure. Muttons are fair if the deeper line has enough push.

Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo stay in the maybe pile. The Stream is close to Molasses and Alligator, but close water is not the same as good water. Make the ocean prove itself before you donate fuel to it.

The bay side is heat limited. Bonefish and permit need moving water and a careful approach. Tarpon are still fair around channels and bridges, especially if the evening current lines up before storms get bossy.

captain’s call

Reef first today. Davis is the clean short run. Crocker and Alligator get my best working snapper read. Conch is steady. Molasses is the better call if you want to peek outside because the Stream edge is close on NOAA’s morning note.

Tennessee is fine if the plan already points west, but I would not make it stop one from Islamorada unless the closer reefs look empty.

This is good working water. Not slick calm. Not ugly. Fish the fall after the morning high, keep the weather honest, and do not get cute with the outside unless it shows you life.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:26 AM EDT. The reef call did not move much. Hawk Channel is still east to southeast near 10 knots this afternoon, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light chop.

The outside got a small tweak. The morning Straits forecast had east to southeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots. The midday forecast keeps the Straits at 10 to 15 knots early, then only backs down to near 10 knots, with seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to around 2 feet. Wave detail is still east to southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds.

Florida Bay stays about the same on paper, east to southeast near 10 knots with a light chop. The shower and thunderstorm chance is still in there for the Bay, Hawk Channel, and the Straits. So the plan stays simple: reef first, watch the sky, and make the outside earn the fuel.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:38 AM EDT and updated 10:26 AM EDT Friday, September 11, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Windley Key station 8723795, and Vaca Key Florida Bay station 8723970. Observations from NDBC Long Key station LKWF1, NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the 4:20 PM coastal waters forecast, and the evening read still favors a reef-first plan. The ridge is holding across the southeastern United States and Florida, so the Keys stay under mostly gentle east to southeast breeze for the next few days. NOAA still expects the breeze to peak in the evening and overnight, then lull during the day.

For tonight, Hawk Channel gets east to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. That is still workable reef water, but it is not a night to get lazy with storms. NOAA keeps a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

The Straits are a little bigger. Tonight calls for east to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and an east wave at 3 feet with a 4 second period. A 4 second sea can stack up and make the ride feel busier than the number. If you are running outside, make the ocean show you birds, weed, bait, or a hard color change before you keep burning south.

Florida Bay stays manageable with east wind near 10 knots becoming southeast, bay waters a light chop, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. It is usable water, but the hot bay side still needs moving tide and a clean reason to stay.

tomorrow’s outlook

Saturday looks fishable, with the usual September warning label. Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the reef line gets southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. That keeps Davis, Crocker, Conch, Alligator, and Molasses in play if the current runs right.

The Straits back down Saturday. NOAA has southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and an east to southeast wave at 2 feet with a 5 second period. That gives the outside a better shot than tonight, but showers and thunderstorms stay in the forecast. Do not make mahi the whole plan unless the water gives you real signs.

Florida Bay gets southeast winds near 10 knots and a light chop Saturday, with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. The bay can still produce in the right window, but I would keep the morning built around reef current first and let the rest earn its time.

Saturday preview:

area	forecast	call
Hawk Channel	southeast 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 ft	good
Straits	southeast 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 ft	fair to good
Florida Bay	southeast near 10 knots, light chop	fair
Weather	showers likely in the Bay, chance of showers and thunderstorms elsewhere	watch the sky

Evening source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:20 PM EDT Friday, September 11, 2026.