Captain's log, September 12, 2026, reef water stays friendly

Saturday, September 12. NOAA Key West put out the 4:17 AM coastal waters forecast, and Islamorada gets a clean little reef window as long as the sky behaves.

The pattern is still ridging across the southeastern United States and Florida. That keeps light to gentle east to southeasterly breeze over the Keys for the next few days. NOAA also says low level moisture stays abundant today, so shower and thunderstorm chances sit a little above normal before the lower levels dry some early next week.

That is September. The water can look nice, then one cell throws a tantrum over the reef line. Leave early, keep the radar up, and do not get married to any one spot if the weather starts talking.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	southeast near 10 knots easing east near 5 knots on Hawk Channel
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, light chop becoming smooth
Straits	southeast 10 to 15 knots easing east 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet
Florida Bay	east to southeast near 10 knots easing near 5 knots, light chop becoming smooth
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Nearby ocean water	Long Key C-MAN, 86.2 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 87.8 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef plan, fair outside plan, watch storms

Long Key C-MAN was showing wind from 150 degrees at 12 knots, gusting 14 knots, at 5:18 AM EDT. Water there was 86.2 F. Sombrero Key was showing wind from 120 degrees at about 10 knots, gusting 12 knots, at 5:40 AM EDT. Vaca Key, Florida Bay, had 87.8 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

Those readings match the forecast well enough. The reef is the first call. The outside is not closed, but it needs signs before it gets the whole morning.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel has the best ride today. NOAA has southeast winds near 10 knots becoming east near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters going from a light chop to smooth.

That keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play. Comfortable water does not guarantee biting fish, though. The current still has to run clean enough to stretch the chum line behind the boat.

If the stern sits right and the bait stacks up, stay with it. If the slick slides under the hull or dies out, move. September reef fishing punishes stubborn.

straits of florida

The Straits get a fair call. NOAA has southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with an east to southeast 2 foot wave at 4 seconds.

A 4 second wave is short. The height is not ugly, but it can still feel busy when showers are around. I would not make a blind bluewater run the main plan today.

The Gulf Stream edge is close enough to pay attention to. NOAA’s September 11 note puts it 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That gives the Upper Keys a decent excuse to peek outside if there are birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a real color edge.

florida bay

Florida Bay is manageable on paper. NOAA has east to southeast wind near 10 knots dropping near 5 knots, with bay waters a light chop becoming smooth.

The problem is heat. Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 87.8 F water before sunrise. Bay fishing can still happen, but I would want moving water, low light, and a clean reason to keep working it. Dead hot water is a bad place to practice optimism.

tides for saturday, september 12

Whale Harbor Channel is the closest ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	4:31 AM EDT	0.018 ft	early low
High	10:25 AM EDT	1.856 ft	morning high
Low	4:55 PM EDT	0.167 ft	afternoon low
High	10:39 PM EDT	1.777 ft	evening high

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
Low	4:22 AM EDT	0.009 ft	early low
High	10:16 AM EDT	2.045 ft	morning high
Low	4:46 PM EDT	0.085 ft	afternoon low
High	10:30 PM EDT	1.957 ft	evening high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay, gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	3:38 AM EDT	1.112 ft	early high
Low	7:37 AM EDT	0.564 ft	morning low
High	4:14 PM EDT	1.241 ft	afternoon high
Low	7:55 PM EDT	0.810 ft	evening low

For the reef, I like the falling water after the 10:25 AM Whale Harbor Channel high. That gives the chum line something to work with through midday and into the afternoon low. If the current lines up, yellowtail should cooperate.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good call today. It has fishable Hawk Channel conditions, and the Gulf Stream edge note puts the shoreward edge 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light.

Start with yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet. Keep the setup simple. If the water looks clean and the current lays out straight, a deeper bait is worth soaking for a mutton. If the outside shows life, take a measured look instead of turning the whole trip into a fuel donation.

conch reef

Conch is steady in this breeze. Southeast near 10 knots early and lighter east later should keep the ride reasonable.

Fish 50 to 80 feet and let the current make the decision. Yellowtail are the main target. Mangroves are fair around better bottom. Cero mackerel can show in the slick when bait gets nervous.

davis reef

Davis is the practical short run. On a day with storms in the forecast, that matters.

Fish 40 to 60 feet first. Yellowtail and mangroves are the cleanest bet. If the bite is slow, do not sit there trying to prove a point. Slide until the chum line looks alive.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good snapper look if the water has decent color and enough push. The sea state should not be the issue today.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be the bread and butter. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge, but only if the current gives you a clean bait presentation.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better calls. The reef water is fishable, and NOAA puts the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light.

Reef first. Yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet should be the main plan. Muttons are fair deeper. If there is a hard color change or birds on the outside, Alligator gives you a useful place to check without forgetting the snapper box.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but I would not run past biting water to get there. The forecast supports it, the storm chance keeps it from being a casual joyride.

Fish 40 to 70 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the better targets. If the current is lazy, work back toward a reef that has cleaner flow instead of waiting on a miracle.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 feet with chum and clean current
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges, shade, and structure with moving water
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait gathers
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only with birds, weed, bait, or color
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water when bait is present
Wahoo	fair	cleaner Stream-side edge water, not a blind promise
Bonefish	poor to fair	early moving water before the flats heat up
Permit	poor to fair	cleaner bay flow and low light
Tarpon	fair	channels, bridges, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef has the best mix of tide and sea state. Mangroves are fair where the bottom has life. Muttons can happen, but today is not a sit-all-day mutton mission unless the current earns it.

Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo stay in the maybe pile. The Stream is close near Molasses and Alligator, but close water is only useful if it has bait or a visible edge. No signs, no hero run.

The bay side is hot. Bonefish and permit need moving water and quiet approaches. Tarpon stay fair around bridges and channels when the current turns on.

captain’s call

Reef first today. Davis is the clean short run. Crocker and Alligator get my best working snapper read. Conch is steady. Molasses is the best reef if you want an outside peek because the Stream edge is close.

Tennessee is fine if the plan already points west, but I would not make it the first stop from Islamorada with good water closer to home.

This is good working charter weather, not free rein. Fish the falling water after the morning high, keep an eye on storms, and make the ocean show you life before you chase it.

midday addendum, 10:37 AM NOAA update

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 10:37 AM EDT. The big picture did not break. It just got a little more specific for the afternoon.

The early wind is more south to southwest than the 4:17 AM forecast had it, then it bends back east to southeast and lightens up. Hawk Channel now has south to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east to southeast near 5 knots. Seas stay around 1 foot, and nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop back to smooth. That is still a good reef ride if the storms leave you alone.

The Straits eased a touch from the morning call. NOAA now has south wind near 10 knots early, becoming east and dropping to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot this afternoon. Wave detail is still short, east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds, so it can feel busy under a shower even when the numbers look polite.

Florida Bay also shifted lighter. Instead of east to southeast near 10 knots early, the update has south to southwest wind near 5 knots early, becoming east to southeast. Bay waters stay smooth with a shower or storm chance. The bay is not rough. It is just hot, and hot bay water still needs moving tide to be worth your time.

No change to the Gulf Stream note. NOAA is still using the September 11 edge, with the shoreward side 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Reef first still makes the most sense. Peek outside only if the water shows birds, bait, weed, or a real color edge.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:17 AM EDT and updated 10:37 AM EDT Saturday, September 12, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Windley Key station 8723795, and Vaca Key Florida Bay station 8723970. Observations from NDBC Long Key station LKWF1, NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970.

evening addendum, 4:26 PM NOAA update

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 4:26 PM EDT. The reef water held together this afternoon. No big wind surprise, no nasty sea state in the forecast, just the usual September warning label sitting over everything: showers and thunderstorms can still build fast.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the Seven Mile Bridge has southeast to south wind 5 to 10 knots, dropping near 5 knots. Seas stay around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop back to smooth, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. That is easy water until a storm cell decides otherwise.

The Straits are also reasonable tonight. NOAA has southeast wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and wave detail from the east to southeast at 1 foot every 4 seconds. That is not a scary number. But at 4 seconds it is still short water, so any rain pileup can make it feel more annoying than it looks from the dock.

Florida Bay stays soft tonight, with south wind near 5 knots and smooth bay waters. The bay is calm on paper. The catch is the heat and the leftover storm chance, so I would still want moving water before calling it anything better than fair.

tomorrow’s outlook

Sunday looks like another light wind day. Hawk Channel has southeast to south wind near 5 knots, turning east in the afternoon. Seas are 1 foot or less and nearshore waters stay smooth. That keeps the reef plan alive.

The Straits get southeast to south wind near 5 knots, turning northeast to east in the afternoon. Seas are around 1 foot with an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 4 seconds. NOAA lowered the wording there to a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, which is nice, but not a free pass.

Florida Bay has southeast to south wind near 5 knots Sunday, with smooth bay waters and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Same advice as today: fish early, fish current, and do not waste pretty light wind on dead water.

Reef still gets the first call tomorrow. Davis is the easy short run. Crocker, Alligator, and Molasses are all worth a look if the water has color and the current is doing its job. The Gulf Stream edge note is still from September 11, with the shoreward edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps the outside tempting, but I would make the ocean show birds, bait, weed, or a real edge before spending the fuel.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:26 PM EDT Saturday, September 12, 2026. Gulf Stream position from the NOAA September 11, 2026 note in the same forecast package.