Captain's log, September 13, 2026, light reef water before the breeze builds

Sunday, September 13. NOAA Key West put out the 4:40 AM coastal waters forecast, and Islamorada gets a soft morning on the reef line before the next northeast to east breeze starts building into the week.

The pressure pattern is weak today, so the wind gets light and a little undecided. NOAA has light and varying breeze for the Keys coastal waters, with low level moisture still hanging around. That keeps showers and storms above normal today. Early week looks a little drier, then the ridge gets reinforced and the northeast to east wind freshens.

So today is not rough water. It is September water. Pretty until a cell stacks up, then it gets loud in a hurry.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	variable near 5 knots on Hawk Channel after a light southeast to south start
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	southeast to south near 10 knots becoming variable near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot
Florida Bay	variable near 5 knots, bay waters smooth
Rain	showers likely in the Bay, chance of showers and thunderstorms on the reef and outside
Nearby ocean water	Long Key C-MAN, 87.1 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 87.3 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef morning, fair outside look, watch storms

Long Key C-MAN was showing wind from 300 degrees at about 5 knots, gusting 6 knots, at 5:18 AM EDT. Water there was 87.1 F. Sombrero Key was showing wind from 160 degrees at about 6 knots, gusting 8 knots, at 5:40 AM EDT. Vaca Key, Florida Bay, had 87.3 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is light air. The reef ride should be friendly. The bite still needs moving water, clean enough color, and a chum line that does not fall under the boat like a wet towel.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the best working water today. NOAA has southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots becoming variable near 5 knots. Seas are around 1 foot, and nearshore waters go from smooth to a light chop back to smooth.

That keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play. It is a good setup for a reef trip, especially if you fish the tide instead of just the clock.

Storms are the only real tax on the day. A light forecast does not mean a free pass. If the western sky starts building or the radar gets spotty near the reef line, shorten the leash.

straits of florida

The Straits get a fair to good call, depending on what the surface shows. NOAA has southeast to south winds near 10 knots becoming variable near 5 knots. Seas are around 1 foot, with an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

That is small, short water. Easy enough on paper, but still not worth a blind offshore run if the birds, weed, bait, and color are missing.

The Gulf Stream edge remains close on the Upper Keys side. NOAA’s September 11 note puts the shoreward edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps Molasses and Alligator interesting if the outside gives you a reason.

florida bay

Florida Bay is calm on paper. NOAA has variable winds near 5 knots and smooth bay waters today. Showers are likely, with a chance of thunderstorms.

The bay water is still hot. Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 87.3 F before sunrise. Bonefish and permit can still be caught in this stuff, but I would want low light and moving water. Sitting on dead hot water is how a pretty morning turns into a long one.

tides for sunday, september 13

Whale Harbor Channel is the closest ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	5:14 AM EDT	0.042 ft	early low
High	11:08 AM EDT	1.817 ft	late morning high
Low	5:38 PM EDT	0.265 ft	afternoon low
High	11:18 PM EDT	1.713 ft	late high

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
Low	5:05 AM EDT	0.021 ft	early low
High	10:59 AM EDT	2.002 ft	late morning high
Low	5:29 PM EDT	0.135 ft	afternoon low
High	11:09 PM EDT	1.888 ft	late high

Vaca Key, Florida Bay, gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	3:20 AM EDT	1.188 ft	early high
Low	8:27 AM EDT	0.459 ft	morning low
High	5:05 PM EDT	1.156 ft	afternoon high
Low	8:32 PM EDT	0.823 ft	evening low

For the reef, I like the push into the late morning high, then the fall through midday and afternoon. That gives yellowtail the best chance to settle into the slick. If the current runs straight, stay with it. If it wanders, move before the chum bill gets stupid.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good call today. The sea state is small, and the Gulf Stream edge is listed 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light on the latest NOAA note.

Start on yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet. If the water has blue color and the current points right, keep a deeper bait down for a mutton. If the outside looks alive, make a controlled peek. Do not turn a good reef morning into an empty cooler tour.

conch reef

Conch should be comfortable in this breeze. Light wind and around 1 foot seas give you room to anchor cleanly and fish the slick without fighting the boat.

Work 50 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are the main play. Mangroves are fair where the bottom has shade and the current has enough muscle. Cero mackerel can show if bait piles up behind the boat.

davis reef

Davis is the practical short run. On a day with storms in the forecast, that counts.

Fish 40 to 60 feet and keep the plan simple. Yellowtail and mangroves are the best bet. If the chum line lays out nice after the morning low, give it time. If it dies, slide.

crocker reef

Crocker gets one of the better snapper reads today. The ride should be easy, so the decision comes down to color and current.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be good if the water moves cleanly. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge, but they need a bait that sits right. If the current goes lazy, do not wait there all morning hoping it remembers its job.

alligator reef

Alligator is a strong call. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, close enough to keep the outside in the conversation without making it the whole day.

Fish the reef first. Yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet should be the base plan. Muttons are fair deeper. If there are birds, weed, bait, or a hard color edge outside, take a look and come back to the reef before storms make the decision for you.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today. I just would not drive past biting water to prove it.

Fish 40 to 70 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the cleanest targets. If you already have a westward plan, Tennessee makes sense. If Davis, Crocker, or Alligator are working, stay with the nearer bite and save the miles.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 feet with chum and clean current
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges and structure with enough shade and water movement
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait gathers
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only with birds, weed, bait, or color
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water when bait is present
Wahoo	fair	cleaner Stream-side edge water, not a blind promise
Bonefish	poor to fair	early moving bay water before the heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	clean flow and low light on the bay side
Tarpon	fair	channels, bridges, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef has light wind, small seas, and useful tide. Mangroves are fair around better bottom. Muttons can happen, but I would not let one deep rod slow down a working yellowtail bite.

Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo are not off the table. The Stream is close enough near Molasses and Alligator to tempt you. Still, the outside needs signs. No birds, no weed, no bait, no reason to donate fuel.

The bay side is heat limited again. Bonefish and permit need moving water and careful pressure. Tarpon stay fair around channels and bridges when the tide starts talking.

captain’s call

Reef first today. Davis is the easy short run. Crocker and Alligator get my best working snapper read. Conch is steady. Molasses is the better reef if you want the option to peek outside because the Stream edge is close.

Tennessee is fishable, but I would not make it stop one unless the closer water looks empty.

Fish the late morning high and the fall after it. Keep the radar up. The ocean is giving you a light wind window, but September still charges interest.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:27 AM EDT. The day is still light, but the midday wording cleaned up the wind a little. Hawk Channel is now simply variable near 5 knots this afternoon, with seas 1 to 2 feet subsiding to around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go smooth.

The Straits got bumped a touch on the sea read. The morning forecast had seas around 1 foot. The midday package has seas around 2 feet, then easing to 1 to 2 feet, with a short east to southeast 1 foot wave at 3 seconds. That is still small water, just not quite as flat as the first read made it sound.

Florida Bay did not change much. Variable near 5 knots, smooth bay waters, showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Same September warning applies. Light wind is nice until a storm cell parks over your slick.

For the rest of today, I would still fish the reef first. Crocker, Davis, Alligator, and Conch stay in the good working window. The outside is worth a look only if it shows birds, weed, bait, or a clean edge. No signs, no fuel donation.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:40 AM EDT and updated 10:27 AM EDT Sunday, September 13, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Windley Key station 8723795, and Vaca Key Florida Bay station 8723970. Observations from NDBC Long Key station LKWF1, NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the 4:24 PM EDT coastal waters forecast, and the evening read keeps the same basic story. Light air tonight, a soft Monday, then the northeast to east breeze starts getting more serious Tuesday into midweek.

The weak pressure pattern is still over the Keys tonight. NOAA has light and varying breezes, with low level moisture keeping rain chances above normal through at least this evening. That fits the day. Pretty enough water when the sky behaved, but you still had to respect the cells. September does not care how clean the morning looked.

For tonight, Hawk Channel has variable winds near 5 knots becoming east to southeast, seas around 1 foot, and smooth nearshore waters. The Straits have variable winds near 5 knots becoming east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet, with an east 1 foot wave at 3 seconds. Florida Bay stays smooth with variable winds near 5 knots becoming east to southeast.

Monday is still the friendly window. Hawk Channel has east winds near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and smooth nearshore waters. The Straits have northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, with an east 1 foot wave at 3 seconds. Florida Bay is east to southeast near 5 knots and smooth.

So tomorrow starts as another reef-first day. Davis, Conch, Crocker, Alligator, and Molasses all stay in play if the rain lets you work. Yellowtail are still the cleanest bet. Mangroves are fair where the bottom has enough shade and current. Muttons stay possible on the deeper edge, but I would not let one rod make the whole plan slow.

The outside gets a fair look, not a green light. The Gulf Stream edge from NOAA’s September 11 note is still close, 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. If Monday gives you birds, weed, bait, or a sharp color change, take the look. If it is empty blue with no life on it, come back to the reef and make groceries.

Tuesday is when the room starts changing. NOAA has east winds near 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in Hawk Channel, with seas 1 to 2 feet building to around 2 feet. In the Straits, east winds near 10 knots increase to 10 to 15 knots and seas run around 2 feet. By Tuesday night, the Straits build to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with northeast to east winds near 15 knots.

My call for Monday: fish early, keep the radar open, and do not overrun biting reef water. The ocean is giving one more soft day before the breeze firms up.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:24 PM EDT Sunday, September 13, 2026. Gulf Stream edge from NOAA Key West September 11, 2026 note using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.