Captain's log, September 14, 2026, light reef water before the east breeze

Monday, September 14. NOAA Key West issued the 4:17 AM coastal waters forecast, and Islamorada gets another soft morning on the reef before the northeast to east breeze starts putting a little more back into the ocean later this week.

The pattern is weak today. Light and varying breezes, smooth bay water, small Hawk Channel seas, and a fair chance of showers and storms. That is fishable water, but it is still September. A pretty slick can turn into a dark wall fast when one cell decides to sit on the reef line.

Today is a reef-first call. Fish the moving water. Keep the radar where you can see it. Do not run past biting bottom just because the Straits look friendly on paper.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	variable near 5 knots in Hawk Channel, northeast to east 5 to 10 knots in the Straits
Hawk Channel	seas 1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	seas around 1 foot, east 1 foot at 3 seconds
Florida Bay	variable winds near 5 knots, bay waters smooth
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms
Nearby reef water	Long Key C-MAN, 87.6 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef morning, fair outside look, storms are the tax

Long Key C-MAN was showing wind from 300 degrees at 5 knots, gusting 7 knots, at 5:18 AM EDT. Water there was 87.6 F. Sombrero Key had calm wind at 5:40 AM EDT. Long Key was light out of the south before that, around 3 to 5 knots. Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 88.0 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is hot water and light air. Nice for the ride. Not always magic for the bite unless the tide gives you current.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

NOAA has variable winds near 5 knots in Hawk Channel today. Seas are 1 foot or less, and nearshore waters are smooth. Tonight, the breeze turns east at 5 to 10 knots, with seas around 1 foot and smooth to light chop nearshore water.

That keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs open. Anchoring should be easy. The chum should lay out if the current behaves. The only reason to get cute is weather. If a cell starts building, shorten the leash and keep a clean ride home.

Tuesday is the start of the change. NOAA brings east winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with Hawk Channel seas 1 to 2 feet. That is still fishable, just not as lazy as today.

straits of florida

The Straits are small this morning. NOAA has northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and an east 1 foot wave at 3 seconds. Tonight goes east near 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet.

That is a fair outside look, but not a blank check. Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo need signs. Birds matter. Weed matters. Bait matters. A hard edge matters. Empty blue water with no life on it is just expensive sightseeing.

The Gulf Stream edge is close enough to be part of the conversation. NOAA’s September 11 note puts the shoreward edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. If the outside of Alligator or Molasses shows a clean edge, it is worth a controlled look. If it does not show life, come back to the reef.

florida bay

Florida Bay is calm on paper today. NOAA has variable winds near 5 knots and smooth bay waters, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Tonight turns east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots, still smooth to light chop.

The bay water is hot. Vaca Key had 88.0 F before sunrise. Bonefish and permit can still eat in this, but I would want low light, moving water, and a quiet approach. Dead hot water is not your friend.

tides for monday, september 14

Whale Harbor Channel is the closest ocean-side tide read for most Islamorada reef runs. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	5:55 AM EDT	0.111 ft	early low
High	11:50 AM EDT	1.748 ft	late morning high
Low	6:20 PM EDT	0.383 ft	evening low
High	11:56 PM EDT	1.635 ft	late high

Whale Harbor Marina gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
Low	5:46 AM EDT	0.056 ft	early low
High	11:41 AM EDT	1.926 ft	late morning high
Low	6:11 PM EDT	0.194 ft	evening low
High	11:47 PM EDT	1.801 ft	late high

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay, gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	12:46 AM EDT	0.813 ft	overnight high
Low	8:28 AM EDT	0.115 ft	morning low
High	1:38 PM EDT	0.652 ft	early afternoon high
Low	8:17 PM EDT	0.289 ft	evening low

For the reef, I like the push into the late morning high, then the fall through early afternoon. If the current runs clean, stay on the bite. If it wanders around and your chum falls under the boat, do not sit there burning bait for pride.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good call today. The wind is light, the sea state is small, and the Gulf Stream edge is listed 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light.

Start with yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet. Keep a deeper bait down if the current has enough direction for a mutton. If the outside shows birds, weed, bait, or a hard color line, take a careful look. If it looks empty, do not let the Stream steal the morning.

conch reef

Conch should be comfortable in this setup. Variable wind near 5 knots and smooth nearshore water make it a clean anchoring day.

Fish 50 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are the best base plan. Mangroves are fair around darker bottom and better ledges. Cero mackerel can slide into the slick when bait is stacked behind the boat.

davis reef

Davis is the practical move, especially with storms in the forecast. It gives you a short run, plenty of reef to work, and no reason to overcomplicate the morning.

Fish 40 to 60 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the cleanest targets. If the late morning water starts moving right, give the slick time to build. If it never straightens out, slide before the chum bill gets stupid.

crocker reef

Crocker gets one of my better snapper reads today. Small seas and light wind make the ride easy, so the real call is water color and current.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be good where the flow is clean. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge, but do not turn the whole trip into waiting on one bite. Let the reef tell you if it is worth staying.

alligator reef

Alligator is a strong working option. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, close enough to make the outside tempting without making it the main plan.

Start on the reef. Yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet should be steady if the water moves. Muttons are fair deeper. If the outside edge shows life, take the look and keep it honest.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today. The water is small enough for the run, but I would not drive past biting water to prove a point.

Fish 40 to 70 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the best bets. If you already have a westward plan, Tennessee makes sense. If Davis, Crocker, or Alligator are producing, stay with the closer bite.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 feet with chum and clean current
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges and structure with shade and moving water
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait gathers
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only with birds, weed, bait, or color
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water when bait is present
Wahoo	fair	cleaner Stream-side edge water, not a blind promise
Bonefish	poor to fair	low light and moving bay water before the heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	clean flow on the bay side
Tarpon	fair	channels, bridges, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef has the right sea state and enough tide to work with. Mangroves are fair around better bottom. Muttons can happen, but they need a bait that sits right and current that does not wander.

The outside species are a maybe, not a promise. Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo all get a fair grade because the Stream is close and the Straits are small. Still, there has to be life on the surface. No signs, no fuel donation.

Bay species are heat limited again. Bonefish and permit need careful timing. Tarpon stay fair around channels and bridges when the tide starts moving.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the easy short run. Crocker and Alligator get my best working snapper read. Conch is steady. Molasses is the better reef if you want a controlled peek outside because the Stream edge is close.

Tennessee is fine if your day already points west, but I would not pass good water to get there.

The late morning high and the first part of the fall are the best windows. Keep the radar up. Light wind makes the ocean friendly, but September still keeps a bill in its pocket.

midday addendum, 10:09 AM NOAA update

NOAA Key West refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 10:09 AM EDT, and the ocean did not pull any big tricks on us. The morning call still holds.

Hawk Channel stays light this afternoon. NOAA has variable winds near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, and smooth nearshore waters from Ocean Reef through the Seven Mile Bridge stretch. That is still good reef water, as long as you keep one eye on the sky.

The Straits are also about the same as the first read. Northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, with an east 1 foot wave at 3 seconds. That keeps the outside in play, but only if the water gives you birds, weed, bait, or a real edge. No signs, no hero run.

Florida Bay stays soft, with variable wind near 5 knots and smooth bay water this afternoon. The bigger note is later in the week. NOAA still builds the northeast to east breeze into the moderate range late Tuesday and late Wednesday, and rain chances come up hard through midweek as moisture moves in from the east.

So the call has not changed much since sunrise. Reef first. Use the falling water after the late morning high. Keep the radar open because September can make a flat ocean look guilty in a hurry.

evening addendum, 4:20 PM NOAA update

NOAA Key West put out the afternoon coastal waters forecast at 4:20 PM EDT. The short version is that today stayed soft, but tomorrow starts the turn.

For tonight, Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the Seven Mile Bridge stretch gets variable winds near 5 knots early, becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from smooth to smooth to a light chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Straits are still manageable tonight. NOAA has northeast to east winds 5 to 10 knots early, increasing to near 10 knots. Seas run 1 to 2 feet, with an east 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. That is not rough water, but it is a little more ocean than the sunrise read.

Florida Bay stays easy for the evening, with variable wind near 5 knots early, then east 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop. The evening low at Whale Harbor Channel is 6:20 PM EDT at 0.383 feet, then the next high is 11:56 PM EDT at 1.635 feet.

Tomorrow is not a shutdown, but it is less lazy. NOAA has east winds near 10 knots in Hawk Channel, increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet. The Straits get east wind near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots, with seas around 2 feet and an east 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. Tuesday night bumps up again, with northeast to east wind 10 to 15 knots in the Straits and seas 2 to 3 feet.

So the afternoon recap is simple. If you had reef plans today, you got the better part of the window. For Tuesday, I would still fish, but I would plan it like a working day instead of a joyride. Reef first, watch the east breeze as it fills in, and do not ignore the shower line if it starts stacking up from the east.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:17 AM EDT and updated 10:09 AM EDT and 4:20 PM EDT Monday, September 14, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Marina station 8723795, and Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. Observations from NDBC Long Key station LKWF1, NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1, NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970, and NOAA Key West Gulf Stream edge note dated September 11, 2026.