Captain's log, September 15, 2026, reef first before the east wind fills in, midday update

Tuesday, September 15. NOAA Key West issued the 4:22 AM coastal waters forecast, and the easy morning is still there if you use it right. The breeze starts light east to southeast, then it comes around northeast to east and freshens later in the day.

That makes today a reef-first day out of Islamorada. Not a shutdown. Not a hero run either.

NOAA has Hawk Channel seas at 1 to 2 feet today, then 2 to 3 feet tonight. The Straits start at 1 to 2 feet and build to 3 to 4 feet tonight, occasionally to 5 feet. If you are looking offshore, make the look early and make it earn the fuel. The reef gives the better working plan.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast to east 10 to 15 knots
Hawk Channel	seas 1 to 2 feet, nearshore waters smooth to light chop becoming light to moderate chop
Straits	seas 1 to 2 feet today, building to 3 to 4 feet tonight
Florida Bay	smooth to light chop early, light to moderate chop late
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms today, showers likely tonight
Nearby reef water	Long Key C-MAN, 88.0 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.3 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good early reef window, fair outside look, rougher tonight

Long Key C-MAN was showing wind from 180 degrees at about 9 knots, gusting 10 knots, at 5:18 AM EDT. Water there was 88.0 F. Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 88.3 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is hot water again. The comfort comes from the morning sea state, not from the water temperature. Fish need moving water and clean current. Dead hot water can make a pretty ocean fish like it has a headache.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

NOAA has east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots this morning, becoming northeast to east 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters start smooth to a light chop, then become a light to moderate chop.

That keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs fishable. I would rather be set up early than leaving late with the breeze already filling in. The anchor work should still be reasonable, but the afternoon will not be as soft as sunrise.

Tonight gets bumpier. NOAA has northeast to east winds near 15 knots in Hawk Channel, seas 2 to 3 feet, and moderate chop nearshore. That is the ocean telling you to get your work done in the daylight window.

straits of florida

The Straits are the tricky call. NOAA has east to southeast winds near 10 knots becoming northeast to east 10 to 15 knots today. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with an east to southeast 2 foot wave at 4 seconds.

That is fishable water early, but the night forecast matters. Tonight, NOAA builds east wind near 15 knots and seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with an east 4 foot wave at 5 seconds.

The Gulf Stream edge is close enough to tempt you. NOAA’s September 11 note puts it 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. If you see birds, weed, bait, or a clean color change outside Molasses or Alligator, take a controlled look. If it is empty, get back on the reef before the east wind makes the ride home uglier than it needs to be.

florida bay

Florida Bay starts easy enough. NOAA has east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast to east 10 to 15 knots late. Bay waters go from smooth to a light chop to a light to moderate chop.

That is not bad water for a short bay plan, but the temperature is high. Vaca Key had 88.3 F before sunrise. Bonefish and permit need low light, moving water, and a quiet boat. If the tide quits, do not sit there cooking.

tides for tuesday, september 15

Whale Harbor Channel is the closest ocean-side tide read for most Islamorada reef runs. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
Low	6:37 AM EDT	0.211 ft	early low
High	12:31 PM EDT	1.659 ft	midday high
Low	7:03 PM EDT	0.510 ft	evening low

Whale Harbor Marina gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
Low	6:28 AM EDT	0.107 ft	early low
High	12:22 PM EDT	1.828 ft	midday high
Low	6:54 PM EDT	0.259 ft	evening low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay, gives a bay-side timing read.

event	time	height	notes
High	4:04 AM EDT	1.311 ft	early high
Low	10:07 AM EDT	0.263 ft	morning low
High	6:57 PM EDT	0.934 ft	evening high
Low	9:47 PM EDT	0.792 ft	late low

For the reef, I like the incoming water from the early low into the midday high. That is your cleanest yellowtail window. The first part of the fall can work too, but the wind will be more involved by then.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good early call. The reef is fishable, and the Gulf Stream edge is listed 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light.

Start on yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet. Keep one deeper bait honest if the current lays out right. If the outside edge shows life, take a short look. Do not let the close Stream turn the day into a long search with a building east wind behind you.

conch reef

Conch should fish fine this morning. It is a good reef to work before the breeze gets into the moderate range.

Fish 50 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are the base plan. Mangroves are fair on the better ledges. Cero mackerel can slide into the slick if bait stacks up behind the boat.

davis reef

Davis is the practical play today. Short run, good bottom, easy exit if the weather starts throwing dark water over the reef line.

Fish 40 to 60 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the best targets. Give the chum time if the current is clean. If it gets lazy or squirrely, move before the bait bill starts laughing at you.

crocker reef

Crocker gets one of the better snapper reads again. The morning water should be comfortable enough, and the incoming tide gives it something to work with.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be good where the current runs straight. Muttons are fair deeper, but they need a bait that sits naturally. If the boat swings around in the building breeze, reset instead of forcing it.

alligator reef

Alligator is a strong working option. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, close enough to keep the outside interesting without making it the main plan.

Start on the reef. Yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet should be the best bet. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. If the outside has birds or a hard color break, give it a look early and keep the ride home in mind.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but I would not make it the first choice unless your plan already points west.

Fish 40 to 70 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the cleanest calls. If Davis, Crocker, or Alligator are biting, stay with closer water. Miles do not make a reef bite better by themselves.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 feet with chum and clean current
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges and structure with moving water
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait gathers
Mahi mahi	fair	early outside look only with birds, weed, bait, or color
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water when bait is present
Wahoo	fair	cleaner Stream-side edge water, not a blind troll
Bonefish	poor to fair	low light and moving bay water before the heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	clean bay-side flow with a quiet approach
Tarpon	fair	channels, bridges, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef has enough sea room early and a useful incoming tide. Mangroves are fair around better structure. Muttons are worth a bait, not the whole day.

The outside species stay in the fair box. Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo all need signs. A close Gulf Stream edge is helpful. It is not a guarantee. If the surface looks dead, the reef is the smarter paycheck.

The bay side is still heat limited. Bonefish and permit can eat when the water moves, but you need timing. Tarpon stay fair around channels and bridges once the tide gets some pull.

captain’s call

Fish the reef early. Davis is the easy short run. Crocker and Alligator get my best working snapper read. Conch is steady. Molasses is the best controlled peek outside because the Stream edge is close.

Tennessee is fine if your day is already leaning west, but I would not drive past biting water to get there.

The best window is the incoming water into the midday high. After that, the northeast to east breeze matters more. Keep the radar up, keep the plan tight, and do not wait until the Straits are wearing tonight’s forecast before you point the bow home.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:24 AM EDT. The direction of the day has not changed much, but the soft part is mostly behind us now.

Hawk Channel is still manageable, just not as easy as the morning read. NOAA now has east to southeast wind 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast to east 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, with seas building to around 2 feet and nearshore waters becoming a light to moderate chop. That is a small bump from the early call, which held Hawk Channel at 1 to 2 feet through the day.

The Straits also ticked up for this afternoon. The morning forecast had 1 to 2 feet before the rougher night. The midday forecast now has seas around 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet, with an east to southeast 2 foot wave at 4 seconds. Tonight still looks like the real bite, east wind near 15 knots with seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.

Florida Bay is about the same story as this morning. Smooth to a light chop gives way to a light to moderate chop as the northeast to east breeze fills in. Rain is still in play this afternoon, and NOAA keeps showers likely tonight with a chance of thunderstorms.

For the rest of today, I would keep it reef-side and practical. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Conch still make sense. The outside look needs to be short and honest. If there is no life on the edge, do not donate the ride home to a building east wind.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:22 AM EDT and updated 10:24 AM EDT Tuesday, September 15, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Marina station 8723795, and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. Observations from NDBC Long Key station LKWF1 and NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970. Gulf Stream edge note from NOAA Key West dated September 11, 2026.