Captain's log, September 16, 2026, reef work in a wet east breeze

Wednesday, September 16. NOAA Key West issued the 4:28 AM coastal waters forecast, and the ocean is not flat, but it is workable if you keep the plan honest.

The breeze is northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots across the reef line. Hawk Channel is sitting at 2 to 3 feet. The Straits are 2 to 4 feet, with a northeast to east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. That is fishable water for a charter crew that knows what they are doing. It is not the morning to go wandering around offshore just because the fuel tanks are full.

Reef first. Short leash offshore. Watch the rain.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	northeast to east 10 to 15 knots
Hawk Channel	seas 2 to 3 feet, nearshore waters light to moderate chop
Straits	seas 2 to 4 feet, northeast to east 3 feet at 5 seconds
Florida Bay	light to moderate chop
Rain	showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms
Nearby reef water	Long Key C-MAN, 87.8 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.2 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	fair to good reef day, fair outside look only if the water shows life

Long Key C-MAN was showing east wind at about 10 knots, gusting 12 knots, at 5:18 AM EDT. Water there was 87.8 F. Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 88.2 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is still hot September water. The ride is controlled by the breeze. The bite is controlled by current, water color, and how long the sky lets you work.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

NOAA has northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots in Hawk Channel today. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. Showers are likely, with a chance of thunderstorms.

That keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play, but it favors a clean setup. Get the anchor right. Let the chum work. If the current runs crooked against the breeze, do not spend half the morning pretending the boat is sitting better than it is.

Tonight stays about the same on the reef line. NOAA has northeast to east winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late, with seas 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters start moderate chop, then ease back to light to moderate chop. Showers stay in the forecast.

straits of florida

The Straits get a shorter leash today. NOAA has northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 4 feet, and a northeast to east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.

The Gulf Stream edge is close enough to matter. NOAA’s September 11 note puts the shoreward edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That can make the outside of Molasses and Alligator interesting.

But a close edge is not a guarantee. If you do not see birds, bait, weed, or a hard color change, come back inside and make the reef pay. Blind trolling in short-period east chop is how a decent day turns into a fuel receipt.

florida bay

Florida Bay is not ugly, but it is not slick either. NOAA has northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots with bay waters a light to moderate chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

The bay water is 88.2 F at Vaca Key before sunrise. Bonefish and permit can still eat in hot water, but they need low light, moving water, and a quiet push. Dead water in the heat is a tough sell.

tides for wednesday, september 16

Whale Harbor Channel is the closest ocean-side tide read for most Islamorada reef runs. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
High	12:35 AM EDT	1.551 ft	overnight high
Low	7:21 AM EDT	0.328 ft	morning low
High	1:15 PM EDT	1.563 ft	early afternoon high
Low	7:49 PM EDT	0.634 ft	evening low

Whale Harbor Marina gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	12:26 AM EDT	1.709 ft	overnight high
Low	7:12 AM EDT	0.166 ft	morning low
High	1:06 PM EDT	1.722 ft	early afternoon high
Low	7:40 PM EDT	0.321 ft	evening low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay, gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	4:43 AM EDT	1.320 ft	early high
Low	10:57 AM EDT	0.196 ft	late morning low
High	8:19 PM EDT	0.835 ft	evening high
Low	10:24 PM EDT	0.777 ft	late low

For the reef, the better working window is the incoming water from the morning low into the early afternoon high. If the current comes clean, yellowtail should show. If the tide goes soft or starts running across the breeze, move before the day gets expensive.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses is fishable, but it will not be glassy. The close Gulf Stream edge makes the outside tempting, especially with the shoreward edge listed 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light.

Start with yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet. Keep the outside look short unless the water gives you signs. If birds or bait are stacked on the edge, take a look. If it is empty, the reef is the job.

conch reef

Conch gets a fair to good call. The sea state is workable, and the incoming tide should give the chum a chance to stretch out.

Fish 50 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are the base play. Mangroves are fair on better ledges. Cero mackerel can show in the slick if bait gets nervous behind the boat.

davis reef

Davis is the practical short-run option today. With showers likely and the east breeze already in the forecast, shorter miles are worth something.

Fish 40 to 60 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the cleanest targets. If the current lines up, sit on it. If the boat starts lying wrong in the chop, reset instead of forcing it.

crocker reef

Crocker gets one of the better snapper reads. It has enough depth and structure to work in this breeze without making the ride longer than it needs to be.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be fair to good with clean current. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Fish one honest bait down there, but do not let one maybe-fish steal the whole morning.

alligator reef

Alligator is a strong option if the crew is comfortable in 2 to 3 foot reef water. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, close enough for a controlled peek outside.

Start on the reef in 45 to 75 feet. Yellowtail are the best bet. Muttons are fair deeper. The outside is worth checking only if the surface has life on it.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but it is not my first pick unless the day already points west. The reef should work, but the extra run does not buy you much if Davis, Crocker, or Alligator are already giving you clean water.

Fish 40 to 70 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the plain answer. If the weather starts stacking up, closer water wins.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 feet with chum and clean incoming water
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges and darker bottom with moving water
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait gathers
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only with birds, weed, bait, or color
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water when bait is present
Wahoo	fair	clean Stream-side edge water, not a blind troll
Bonefish	poor to fair	low light and moving bay water before the heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	clean bay-side flow with a quiet approach
Tarpon	fair	channels, bridges, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef is still workable and the tide gives us something to fish. Mangroves are fair around better structure. Muttons are worth a bait, not a sermon.

Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo all stay in the fair box. The edge is close, which helps. The short-period east chop and wet pattern keep it from being a wide-open offshore call.

Bay species are heat limited again. Bonefish and permit need timing. Tarpon stay fair around bridges and channels when the tide pulls.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the easy short run. Crocker and Alligator get my best working snapper read. Conch should be steady. Molasses is the place to take a short outside look if the edge shows life.

Tennessee is fine for a westward plan, but I would not drive past biting water today.

The cleanest window is the incoming tide into the early afternoon high. Keep the radar open. The forecast is wet, and a 2 to 3 foot reef day gets a lot less charming when a thunderstorm parks over the line.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:28 AM EDT Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Marina station 8723795, and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. Observations from NDBC Long Key station LKWF1 and NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970. Gulf Stream edge note from NOAA Key West dated September 11, 2026.

midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:22 AM EDT, and the morning call still holds. No big swing in the wind. No surprise calm-down either.

For this afternoon, Hawk Channel is still northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, with nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. The Straits are still northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with a northeast to east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds.

The wet part of the forecast did not back off. Showers are likely on the reef and in Hawk Channel, and the Straits keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms. That means the fishing plan stays mobile. Work the reef while it gives you room, but keep an eye over your shoulder.

The only thing I would tighten up from sunrise is tonight’s outside call. NOAA now has the Straits building to 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with east wind near 15 knots easing late. Gulf-side waters around the Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel may build to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, as the breeze nudges 15 to 20 knots tonight.

So the midday read is simple. Reef water is still fishable. Offshore is still a short-look deal, not a long wander. If the sky gets dark or the current gets ugly, get back inside and make the snapper bite pay.

Source note for midday addendum: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:22 AM EDT Wednesday, September 16, 2026.

evening addendum, 5:00 PM EDT

NOAA Key West pushed the afternoon coastal waters forecast at 4:16 PM EDT. The day did not turn into anything magic, but it stayed inside the lane we expected. East breeze, warm water, scattered weather, and a reef plan that made more sense than trying to force a long offshore run.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is northeast to east near 15 knots, easing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas stay 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters start with a moderate chop and settle back to a light to moderate chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

The Straits are a little sportier. NOAA has east to southeast winds near 15 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots, seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with a northeast to east 4 foot wave at 5 seconds. That is not the place to be making casual nighttime decisions.

The afternoon recap is pretty much what the morning told us. Reef water was the honest work. Yellowtail and mangrove snapper stayed the cleaner call where the current lined up. Anything outside needed signs first, birds, bait, weed, or a hard color edge. No signs, no reason to burn fuel.

thursday outlook

Thursday still looks fishable, but it is not a lazy forecast. NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots in Hawk Channel, seas 2 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters a light to moderate chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

The Straits should come down a notch from tonight, with east wind 10 to 15 knots and seas subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. The wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. Better than tonight, still short-period east water, so do not sell it as pretty.

Florida Bay gets northeast to east wind near 10 knots Thursday, bay waters a light chop, and showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. That is workable for a careful bay plan if the weather gives you windows.

My call for tomorrow is reef first again. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Conch all stay in play if the radar behaves. The offshore edge can get a look only if the surface is talking. If it is quiet out there, stay inside, chum hard, and make the reef earn its keep.

Source note for evening addendum: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:16 PM EDT Wednesday, September 16, 2026.