Captain's log, September 17, 2026, reef work before the wet weather gets pushy

Thursday, September 17. NOAA Key West issued the 4:32 AM coastal waters forecast, and today gives us a fishable reef window with a wet sky hanging over it.

The wind starts northeast to east near 10 knots in Hawk Channel and builds near 15 knots. Seas on the reef are around 2 feet, with nearshore waters running light to moderate chop. The Straits are east at 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet and a northeast to east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds.

That is not ugly. It is also not a free pass to run blind and call it a plan. Reef first, short outside look only if the water earns it.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	northeast to east near 10 knots, increasing near 15 knots on the reef
Hawk Channel	seas around 2 feet, nearshore waters light to moderate chop
Straits	east wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet
Wave detail	northeast to east 3 feet at 5 seconds in the Straits
Florida Bay	light chop becoming moderate chop
Rain	showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms
Nearby reef water	Long Key C-MAN, 86.5 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 88.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef setup early, fair offshore unless there are signs

Long Key C-MAN was showing wind from 70 degrees at about 16 knots, gusting about 19 knots, at 5:18 AM EDT. Water there was 86.5 F. Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 88.0 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is hot September water. Fish it with current, shade when you can get it, and do not waste the best part of the tide getting cute.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

NOAA has northeast to east wind near 10 knots today, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, and showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

That keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play. The trick is not just getting there. The trick is sitting right when the breeze comes up and the current starts moving.

If the boat lies clean, chum and let the slick work. If the current runs wrong against the wind, reset before the bite gets sloppy.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable but not soft. NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, and a northeast to east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

The Gulf Stream edge is close enough to matter. NOAA’s September 11 note puts the shoreward edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light.

That is worth a look if the surface is talking. Birds, bait, weed, a hard color change. If none of that is there, come back inside and make the reef pay.

florida bay

Florida Bay starts with northeast to east wind near 10 knots, then builds near 15 knots. Bay waters go from a light chop to a moderate chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

The bay water is still hot at 88.0 F before sunrise at Vaca Key. Bonefish and permit can still eat, but they need moving water and a quiet approach. Dead water in this heat is just sightseeing with a push pole.

tides for thursday, september 17

Whale Harbor Channel is the closest ocean-side tide read for most Islamorada reef runs. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
High	1:17 AM EDT	1.471 ft	overnight high
Low	8:09 AM EDT	0.444 ft	morning low
High	2:02 PM EDT	1.475 ft	early afternoon high
Low	8:39 PM EDT	0.740 ft	evening low

Whale Harbor Marina gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	1:08 AM EDT	1.621 ft	overnight high
Low	8:00 AM EDT	0.225 ft	morning low
High	1:53 PM EDT	1.625 ft	early afternoon high
Low	8:30 PM EDT	0.375 ft	evening low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay, gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	5:24 AM EDT	1.298 ft	morning high
Low	11:49 AM EDT	0.167 ft	late morning low

For the reef, the cleanest push is the incoming water from the morning low into the early afternoon high. If that water comes in blue and the chum line stretches, yellowtail should play. If the current dies early or runs across the wind, move while you still have the day in front of you.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good grade if the current is right. The Gulf Stream edge is listed 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light, so the outside can be interesting without turning the whole day into a fuel run.

Start in 45 to 75 feet for yellowtail. Keep one eye outside for birds or bait. If the edge looks empty, do not marry it. The reef is the job.

conch reef

Conch is a steady reef call today. The sea state is workable, and the incoming tide should give the chum enough pull to stack fish behind the boat.

Fish 50 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are the base play. Mangroves are fair on the better bottom. Cero mackerel can show up in the slick when the bait gets nervous.

davis reef

Davis is the practical short-run option with showers in the forecast. Short miles matter when the radar starts painting little problems over the reef line.

Fish 40 to 60 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the cleanest targets. If the current lines up early, sit still and work. If it lays down, do not wait around hoping the ocean feels sorry for you.

crocker reef

Crocker gets one of the better snapper reads. It has enough depth and structure to fish well in an east breeze without forcing a longer run than needed.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be fair to good with clean current. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge with a live bait or fresh cut bait. One good bait down there is smart. Turning the whole trip into mutton church is not.

alligator reef

Alligator is a strong option if the crew is good with a little reef chop. NOAA has the Stream edge 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, close enough for a controlled look outside if the signs line up.

Start on the reef in 45 to 75 feet. Yellowtail are the best bet. Muttons are fair deeper. If the outside water has birds, bait, weed, or a sharp edge, take a shot. If it is blank, get back on the snapper program.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable, but I would not run past biting water to get there. Today rewards the boat that sets up clean, not the boat that wins the mileage contest.

Fish 40 to 70 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the plain answer. If the weather starts stacking west of the line, closer water wins.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 feet with chum and clean incoming water
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges and darker bottom with moving water
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait gathers
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only with birds, weed, bait, or color
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water when bait is present
Wahoo	fair	clean Stream-side edge water, not a blind troll
Bonefish	poor to fair	low light and moving bay water before the heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	clean bay-side flow with a quiet approach
Tarpon	fair	channels, bridges, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef is workable and the tide gives us a usable push. Mangroves are fair around better structure. Muttons are worth a bait, not the whole sermon.

The offshore fish stay in the fair box. Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo all need signs today. A close Gulf Stream edge helps, but short-period east water and showers keep it from being a wide-open outside call.

Bay fish are heat limited again. Bonefish and permit need low light, clean flow, and careful boat handling. Tarpon stay fair around bridges and channels when the tide pulls.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the easy short run. Crocker and Alligator get my best working snapper read. Conch should be steady. Molasses is the place to take a quick outside look if the edge shows life.

Tennessee is fine for a westward plan, but I would not drive past biting fish today.

The best window is the incoming tide into the early afternoon high. Keep the radar up. Showers are likely, thunderstorms are possible, and a good reef morning can turn into a wet ride home if you quit paying attention.

midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:14 AM, and the morning plan still holds. No big mercy from the wind, but no ugly surprise either.

Hawk Channel stayed northeast to east near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Seas remain around 2 feet, with nearshore waters going from light chop to light to moderate chop. That is basically the same reef call as sunrise, just with the breeze filling in the way it was supposed to.

The Straits are still east at 10 to 15 knots with seas 2 to 3 feet. The wave detail is northeast to east at 3 feet every 5 seconds, so the outside is not soft. It is fishable for the right boat and the right crew, but it is still a sign-based look, not a blind run.

The bigger midday note is the rain. NOAA kept showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, and the new synopsis leans harder into a wet pattern through at least Sunday as an upper-level low works west toward South Florida and then the Gulf. Friday looks lighter on wind, east at 5 to 10 knots in the Straits, but showers likely stay in the forecast.

For the rest of today, I would keep the reef program tight. Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Davis still make sense if the current is worth fishing. If the radar starts stacking cells over the reef line, get smaller with the plan. Good snapper fishing is nice. A wet, sloppy ride home with thunder around is not hero work.

evening addendum, 5:00 PM EDT

NOAA Key West put out the 4:17 PM coastal waters forecast, and the evening read is about what the day hinted at. The reef stayed workable, but the weather is still the boss.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots, becoming east and decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, then settling to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from a light to moderate chop to a light chop. Showers remain likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

The Straits get a little kinder overnight, but not clean enough to pretend it is calm. NOAA has east wind 10 to 15 knots decreasing to near 10 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet subsiding to around 2 feet, with an east 3 foot wave at 5 seconds. That short-period sea keeps the outside from feeling soft.

The afternoon call was right to keep the day reef-first. Snapper water made the most sense, especially where the current had enough pull to carry chum without making the boat sit crooked. Offshore was still a sign-based look. No birds, no bait, no hard edge, no reason to burn the afternoon chasing a maybe.

Tomorrow, Friday, looks lighter on wind and still wet. Hawk Channel has east wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits are east to southeast near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots, with seas around 2 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east 2 feet at 5 seconds.

That is a better ride, but the rain does not leave the story. NOAA keeps showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms, and the synopsis says the wet pattern should hold through at least Sunday as an upper-level low works west toward South Florida and then the Gulf.

My Friday plan would start on the reef again. Davis is the short leash. Conch, Crocker, and Alligator get the better snapper read if the radar gives room. Molasses gets a look if the Stream edge has life close to the reef, but I would not let a pretty forecast number talk me into ignoring dark sky.

Yellowtail still get the best grade. Mangroves are fair on the right bottom. Muttons are worth one good bait deeper, not the whole morning. Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo stay in the fair box until the water shows birds, weed, bait, or a real color change.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:32 AM EDT and updated 10:14 AM EDT and 4:17 PM EDT Thursday, September 17, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Marina station 8723795, and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. Observations from NDBC Long Key station LKWF1 and NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970. Gulf Stream edge note from NOAA Key West dated September 11, 2026.