Captain's log, September 18, 2026, light east wind, one foot reef water, storm watch

Friday, September 18. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:24 AM EDT, and the Islamorada reef line gets a calm-looking morning with one real catch. The storms still own the veto button.

High pressure in the north Atlantic is weakening today. That lets the breeze slack off across the Keys coastal waters, with light to gentle wind expected through the rest of the week and into the weekend. NOAA also has a wetter pattern building as an upper-level low moves west across Florida and toward the Gulf. That means showers and thunderstorms stay in the daily plan, with gusty wind, lightning, hard rain, and locally rough water near the cells.

For Hawk Channel, NOAA has east wind near 5 knots today, seas around 1 foot, and smooth nearshore water. Tonight goes northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots, still around 1 foot, with smooth to light chop nearshore.

For the Straits, NOAA has east wind near 10 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots today. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with an east 2 foot wave at 5 seconds. Tonight stays east at 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, with a northeast to east 2 foot wave at 5 seconds.

That puts Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play. The ride is not the problem. The sky is.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	east near 5 knots in Hawk Channel, east near 10 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots in the Straits
Hawk Channel	around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	1 to 2 feet, east 2 feet at 5 seconds
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms today, showers likely tonight
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 86.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light as of September 11
Overall call	good reef conditions if storms stay clear, fair outside look, poor plan under dark cells

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the cleanest water choice today. East wind near 5 knots and seas around 1 foot is about as friendly as September gets on paper. Molasses through Tennessee should all be workable for a normal reef trip.

The catch is weather. A thunderstorm can turn smooth water into junk fast, and NOAA is clear about gusty wind, lightning, hard rain, and locally hazardous seas around stronger activity. So the play is simple. Fish the window, watch the radar, and do not let flat water at the dock talk you into ignoring the clouds.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair to good for a short look. NOAA has 1 to 2 feet with an east 2 foot wave at 5 seconds. That is not big water, but it is still short-period stuff. It can slap more than the number suggests, especially if a shower line leans on it.

The Gulf Stream edge from the September 11 NOAA note sits close to the reef line, 6 NM southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 2 NM southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That keeps blue-water possibilities within reach. It does not make a blind offshore run smart if the reef bite is working or the sky is building.

florida bay

Florida Bay is smooth today with east wind near 5 knots. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 86.0 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is warm water, but it is a little more forgiving than the worst summer heat.

Bonefish, permit, and tarpon still need timing. Moving water matters. Low light helps. Midday slack with storms nearby is not where I would spend the best bait.

tides for friday, september 18

Whale Harbor Channel gives the closer ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	2:03 AM EDT	1.40 ft	overnight high
Low	9:04 AM EDT	0.54 ft	morning low
High	2:55 PM EDT	1.41 ft	afternoon high
Low	9:39 PM EDT	0.81 ft	late low

Vaca Key, Florida Bay gives the nearby bay-side read.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	6:09 AM EDT	1.26 ft	morning high
Low	12:44 PM EDT	0.18 ft	midday low
High	6:58 AM EDT Saturday	1.21 ft	next morning high
Low	1:42 PM EDT Saturday	0.23 ft	next midday low

For the reef, the cleaner window should be the incoming water from the 9:04 AM Whale Harbor low toward the 2:55 PM high. If the current stretches the chum and the storms give us room, that is enough to work with.

For the bay, the water falls through late morning into the 12:44 PM low. That can move fish, but do not force a hot, dead flat if the water stalls.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good grade today. The Gulf Stream edge is listed 2 NM southeast of the light, so clean water can sit close to the outside edge. Yellowtail snapper are the first bet in 45 to 75 feet if the current behaves.

Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper side. Cero mackerel are fair if bait gets nervous in the slick. I would not leave a working snapper bite just to wander outside unless birds, weed, bait, or a hard color change show close.

conch reef

Conch should fish good if the morning storms stay broken up. One foot in Hawk Channel makes the run easy, and the incoming tide after the morning low gives the chum line a chance to set.

Yellowtail are the main target. Mangrove snapper are fair around the harder pieces. A mutton bait on the deeper edge is worth the soak, but it needs clean current more than wishful thinking.

davis reef

Davis is the practical half-day call. It gives you reef water without burning time, and the light east wind should make it comfortable for mixed crews.

Start with yellowtail. If the current hangs straight down, move or change depth. Davis fishes a lot better when the slick leaves the boat with purpose.

crocker reef

Crocker is a good working option today. The forecast is soft enough to anchor clean and give the chum time to work. Yellowtail should be fair to good, with mangroves possible on structure and lower-light periods.

The storm pattern matters here too. Crocker can look perfect until one cell walks across the reef line. Keep an exit in mind.

alligator reef

Alligator gets a good call if the sky stays open. NOAA has the Gulf Stream edge 6 NM southeast of the light, which is close enough to make the outside edge interesting without turning the day into an offshore gamble.

Yellowtail are the honest money. Mutton snapper are fair deeper. Mahi mahi are possible outside only if there are signs. Do not let the tower pull you past fish that are already behind the boat.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable and comfortable in this setup. With light east wind and one foot reef water, it is a clean reef option for boats already leaning west.

Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are fair to good if the water moves. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge. If the tide gets lazy around the middle of the day, do not sit there feeding ghosts.

species outlook

Species	Outlook	Best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	chum 45 to 75 feet while the incoming tide moves
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with fresh bait
Mangrove snapper	fair	structure and lower-light windows
Cero mackerel	fair	active slicks when bait shows
Mahi mahi	fair	short outside look near Molasses or Alligator if signs show
Blackfin tuna	fair	early deeper edges with bait and clean current
Bonefish	fair	moving bay water before midday heat
Permit	fair	deeper edges and clean current
Tarpon	fair	channels, bridges, and evening water movement

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet today. Light wind, low sea state, and an incoming ocean-side tide give the reef program a good foundation. The only bad plan is getting lazy with the radar.

Mutton snapper are fair from Conch through Tennessee on the deeper edge. Fresh bait and patience matter. Mangrove snapper are fair around structure, especially if cloud cover softens the light.

Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are both possible, but I would treat them as a bonus. The Straits are fishable, and the Gulf Stream edge is close near Molasses and Alligator. Still, the reef is the more reliable way to put fish in the box today.

Florida Bay is warm but not cooked beyond hope. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon need moving water, lower light, and a little common sense about storm cover.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Davis is the easy move. Crocker and Alligator are good working calls. Molasses has the clean-water upside with the Gulf Stream edge close, but only if the sky allows it.

This is a good September fishing day with a normal September warning label. The numbers are friendly. The storms are not. Run the trip around the weather, not the other way around.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:25 AM EDT. The main idea did not change much. Light wind still runs the day, but the afternoon breeze has a little more north in it near the reef line.

Hawk Channel is now northeast to east near 5 knots this afternoon, with seas 1 to 2 feet subsiding to around 1 foot. The morning package had east wind near 5 knots and seas around 1 foot, so call it a small bump early, then settling back down.

The Straits are still fishable on paper. NOAA has east wind near 10 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots, seas around 2 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet, and an east 2 foot wave at 5 seconds. That is basically the same outside call from this morning, just written a little more clearly for the afternoon.

Florida Bay is the wetter change. The morning forecast had a chance of showers and storms. The midday update now says showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms, northeast to east wind near 5 knots, and smooth bay water.

So the call stays the same. Good reef window if the radar behaves. Fair outside look if you have a reason to go. Bad idea anywhere a thunderstorm is already standing up.

evening addendum, 4:25 PM NOAA update

NOAA Key West put out the late afternoon coastal waters forecast at 4:25 PM EDT. The water is still small. The weather is still the part that can bite.

For tonight, Hawk Channel has northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits sit at east wind 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is northeast to east 2 feet at 5 seconds. Florida Bay is also northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots, with smooth to light chop.

That fits the day we had on paper. The reef stayed the honest call, with small seas and enough light wind to make Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Molasses workable when the current behaved. The outside was a maybe, not a mission. If the surface showed birds, weed, bait, or a hard color edge, fine. If not, the reef deserved the time.

The wet pattern is the whole story for the evening. NOAA says scattered to occasional numerous showers and thunderstorms remain in the daily mix through early next week. Gusty winds, lightning, blinding downpours, and locally hazardous seas are still the hazards near the cells. Flat water between squalls does not make a thunderstorm polite.

tomorrow’s outlook

Saturday looks fishable, but it is not a sleepwalk. NOAA has Hawk Channel east winds near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, smooth nearshore water, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday night turns east 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south, with seas around 1 foot and showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

The Straits are light too. Saturday has east winds near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and east wave detail 1 foot at 4 seconds. Saturday night builds back to 1 to 2 feet, with east to southeast wave detail 1 foot at 4 seconds. That is friendly enough for a controlled look outside if the radar is clean and the ocean gives you a reason.

Florida Bay gets east wind near 5 knots Saturday with smooth water, then southeast 5 to 10 knots Saturday night with smooth to light chop. NOAA has showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms for the bay through the day and into the night.

My Saturday call is reef first again. Start practical, keep the radar open, and make the current tell you where to sit. Yellowtail should still be the best meat bet if the chum line stretches. Muttons are fair deeper. Mahi and blackfin stay in the bonus column unless the signs are already there.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:24 AM EDT and updated 10:25 AM EDT and 4:25 PM EDT Friday, September 18, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of September 11, 2026, using RTOFS and NASA SPoRT SST.