Captain's log, September 19, 2026, light east breeze, small reef seas, stormy September sky

Saturday, September 19. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:33 AM EDT, and Islamorada gets another small-water September day on paper.

The breeze stays light to gentle through the weekend. NOAA has wind mostly out of the east today, then sliding more southeast and south into Sunday. The catch is the sky. An upper-level low moving west across Florida is bringing deeper moisture over the Keys, so scattered to occasional numerous showers and thunderstorms stay in the plan through early next week.

So the reef ride is friendly. The storm cells are not. That is the whole day in one clean sentence.

the quick read

factor	today
Wind	east near 5 knots on Hawk Channel, east near 5 knots in the Straits
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters smooth
Straits	seas 1 to 2 feet, east 1 foot at 4 seconds
Florida Bay	east winds near 5 knots, bay waters smooth
Rain	chance of showers and thunderstorms, locally rough near storms
Reef buoy	station 41122, 1.3 ft seas and 86.7 F water at 5:30 AM EDT
Nearby ocean water	Long Key C-MAN, 85.3 F at 5:18 AM EDT
Bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 86.2 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Gulf Stream	15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light
Overall call	good reef comfort, fair outside look, storm watch required

Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed 1.3 ft seas, a 3 second period, and 86.7 F water at 5:30 AM EDT. Long Key C-MAN showed wind from 330 degrees near 7 knots, gusting near 8 knots, at 5:18 AM EDT. Sombrero Key was a little punchier, showing east wind near 18 knots, gusting near 21 knots, at 5:40 AM EDT.

That tells me the forecast is still small, but do not treat the whole reef line like a glass pond. Local wind and rain cells can make their own day.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel gets a good comfort call. NOAA has east winds near 5 knots today, seas around 1 foot, and smooth nearshore waters. That keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play.

The better reef bite still needs moving water. Light wind helps the ride, but it can make the boat lazy on anchor if the current is weak. If the chum hangs under the stern, reset. If the slick stretches and bait starts flashing behind the boat, stay put and work.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair to good if the outside gives you signs. NOAA has east winds near 5 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet. The wave detail is east 1 foot at 4 seconds.

The Gulf Stream edge is not sitting on the reef, but it is close enough to matter. NOAA’s September 15 note puts the shoreward edge 15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light.

That makes Molasses and Alligator the better reefs for a controlled outside peek. I would still want birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a hard color change before burning the morning offshore. Pretty blue water with nothing alive on it is still empty water.

florida bay

Florida Bay is calm on the NOAA read. East winds near 5 knots and smooth bay waters today, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The bay water is hot, but not crazy compared with some of the early September readings. Vaca Key, Florida Bay, was 86.2 F at 5:54 AM EDT. Bonefish and permit need clean moving water and careful handling. Tarpon stay a channel and bridge game when the tide gives them something to sit in.

tides for saturday, september 19

Whale Harbor Channel is the closest ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
High	2:57 AM EDT	1.356 ft	overnight high
Low	10:05 AM EDT	0.598 ft	morning low
High	3:55 PM EDT	1.380 ft	afternoon high
Low	10:43 PM EDT	0.835 ft	late low

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, gives another nearby reef-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	2:48 AM EDT	1.494 ft	overnight high
Low	9:56 AM EDT	0.303 ft	morning low
High	3:46 PM EDT	1.521 ft	afternoon high
Low	10:34 PM EDT	0.424 ft	late low

Islamorada, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay, gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
High	4:22 AM EDT	0.709 ft	early high
Low	1:38 PM EDT	0.234 ft	early afternoon low
High	8:12 PM EDT	0.443 ft	evening high

For the reef, I like the water around the morning low and the push toward the afternoon high. If the current straightens out after breakfast, yellowtail should settle into a chum line. If it wanders, do not spend half the day teaching dead water how to fish.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good call today. The NOAA sea state is small, and the Gulf Stream edge is listed 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light.

Start with yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet. Keep one deeper bait honest for a mutton if the current lets it sit right. The outside is worth a look only if it shows life. If not, the reef is the better paycheck.

conch reef

Conch should be comfortable in the light east breeze. Seas around 1 foot make it easy to anchor, but the bite still depends on current.

Work 50 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are the main play. Mangroves are fair around better bottom, especially if clouds or rain keep the light down. Cero mackerel can show in the slick if bait stacks up.

davis reef

Davis is the practical short run, and that matters with storms in the forecast. You can fish it hard and still keep an easy exit.

Fish 40 to 60 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the cleanest targets. If the water looks milky after rain, slide until the color and current make sense.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good snapper read today. The setup is small enough to work carefully, and the tide gives you a morning low followed by an afternoon high.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be good if the current runs clean. Muttons are fair on the deeper edge. Do not let one slow rod ruin a working yellowtail bite.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better choices today. NOAA has the Stream edge 15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light, not tight, but close enough to keep the outside in the conversation.

Fish the reef first. Yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet should be the base plan. Muttons are fair deeper. If birds or a hard edge show outside, take a measured look and come back before the weather starts writing checks.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable. I just would not run past biting water to get there.

Fish 40 to 70 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the main targets. If you are already working west, it makes sense. If Davis, Crocker, or Alligator are doing their job, stay with the closer bite.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
Yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 feet with chum and clean current
Mangrove snapper	fair	ledges and structure where shade and current line up
Mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
Cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait gathers
Mahi mahi	fair	outside only with birds, weed, bait, or color
Blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water when bait is present
Wahoo	fair	cleaner Stream-side edge water, not a blind promise
Bonefish	poor to fair	early moving bay water before the heat builds
Permit	poor to fair	clean flow and low light on the bay side
Tarpon	fair	channels, bridges, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef has small seas and usable tide. Mangroves are fair where the bottom has shade. Muttons can happen, but today is not a reason to ignore a steady slick bite.

Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo need signs outside. The Stream is close enough near Molasses to tempt you, but not close enough to make promises. If the life is not there, turn around and make the reef pay.

The bay side is still warm. Bonefish and permit need moving water and quick releases. Tarpon stay fair around bridge and channel current, especially later in the day.

captain’s call

Reef first. Davis is the easy safe play. Crocker and Alligator get my best working snapper read. Conch is steady. Molasses is the better upper-end option if you want to peek outside without making the whole day about offshore water.

Tennessee is fine if the westward run already fits the plan. Otherwise, do not leave biting water just because the map has another name on it.

Fish the morning low, then the push toward the afternoon high. Keep the radar up. September can give you a pretty reef ride and still throw a black cloud right into your chum line.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:26 AM EDT. The big change from the morning read is the wind direction. The early forecast had east winds near 5 knots for Hawk Channel, the Straits, and Florida Bay. The midday package backs that off to variable winds near 5 knots for this afternoon.

The sea state did not really move. Hawk Channel is still around 1 foot with smooth nearshore waters. The Straits are still 1 to 2 feet, with the wave detail holding at east 1 foot at 4 seconds. Florida Bay stays smooth.

So the ride is still friendly, but the sky is still the part to respect. The forecast keeps a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, then east to southeast wind returns tonight at 5 to 10 knots before sliding more southeast and south. Any storm that parks on the reef can make its own wind, lightning, hard rain, and sloppy local water fast.

For the rest of today, I would still fish the reef first and keep the day nimble. If the afternoon high gets the current lined up, work it. If the radar starts stacking up dark, do not get cute with it.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast again at 4:43 PM EDT. The water still looks small. The problem is not the base sea state. It is the weather sitting over the Keys.

For tonight, Hawk Channel gets variable winds near 5 knots, becoming southeast to south, with seas around 1 foot and smooth nearshore water. The Straits get east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south, with seas 1 to 2 feet. NOAA’s wave detail for the Straits is east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Florida Bay stays smooth with variable wind near 5 knots, becoming southeast to south.

The afternoon recap is pretty simple. If you stayed reef-minded and watched the sky, the day gave you fishable water. The wind was light enough that Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Molasses all stayed in the conversation. But the radar mattered more than the ride. NOAA kept showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, with higher winds and rougher water near storms, and that is exactly the kind of September setup where a nice slick can turn into a wet mess fast.

Tomorrow is not a blowout. Sunday has south to southwest winds near 5 knots. Hawk Channel seas stay around 1 foot, the Straits fall around 1 foot with southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds, and Florida Bay stays smooth. That is a good comfort forecast for the reef and patch reefs if the storms give us windows.

The catch is rain coverage. NOAA has showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms for Florida Bay and the offshore Gulf zones, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms for Hawk Channel and the Straits. So I would plan Sunday as a flexible reef day. Start close, make the fish prove the next move, and do not run past clean current for a prettier idea on the chart.

Best early plan for Sunday is still snapper. Yellowtail should be the first honest target in 40 to 80 feet if the current runs clean. Mangroves are fair around structure, especially if cloud cover knocks the light down. Muttons are a maybe on the deeper edge. The outside is worth a look only if there are birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a hard color change. If it is just blue and empty, leave it alone.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecasts FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:33 AM EDT, 10:26 AM EDT, and 4:43 PM EDT Saturday, September 19, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Windley Key station 8723795, and Islamorada Upper Matecumbe Key Florida Bay station 8723808. Observations from NDBC station 41122, NDBC Long Key station LKWF1, NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970.