Captain's log, September 20, 2026, small reef water, wet sky, southerly breeze

Sunday, September 20. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:32 AM EDT, and the Islamorada reef line gets another small-water morning with a wet September sky hanging over it.

The base forecast is friendly. Hawk Channel has south to southwest wind near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, and smooth nearshore water today. The Straits sit at 1 to 2 feet with a southeast 1 foot wave at 4 seconds. Florida Bay is smooth with variable wind near 5 knots, becoming south to southwest.

But the weather is still the boss. NOAA has a wet pattern holding across the Keys as an upper-level low lingers in the eastern Gulf waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms stay in the plan, and any cell can bring gusty wind, lightning, blinding rain, and locally rough seas.

So yes, the ride can be nice. And no, that does not mean ignore the radar.

the quick read

factor	today
wind	south to southwest near 5 knots in Hawk Channel, 5 to 10 knots in the Straits
hawk channel	seas 1 foot or less, nearshore waters smooth
straits	seas 1 to 2 feet, southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds
florida bay	variable wind near 5 knots, becoming south to southwest, bay waters smooth
rain	showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms
reef buoy	station 41122, 0.7 ft seas and 86.4 F water at 5:30 AM EDT
nearby wind	Sombrero Key, southeast wind near 8 knots, gusting near 11 knots at 5:40 AM EDT
bay water	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 86.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT
gulf stream	15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light
overall call	good reef comfort, fair outside look, storm watch required

Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed 0.2 meters of sea height, about 0.7 feet, with 86.4 F water at 5:30 AM EDT. That is a soft ocean number. It is also only one piece of the day.

Sombrero Key was showing southeast wind near 8 knots, gusting near 11 knots, at 5:40 AM EDT. That still fits the light pattern, but it is enough to remind you that the reef line is never one single reading from Key Largo to Marathon.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel gets the cleanest comfort call. NOAA has south to southwest wind near 5 knots today, seas 1 foot or less, and smooth nearshore waters. That keeps Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play for normal reef fishing.

The catch is not the ride. It is the clouds. With showers likely and thunderstorms in the forecast, I would fish close enough to make smart moves. If a black wall starts building, do not sit there admiring your chum slick.

straits of florida

The Straits are fair for a measured look. NOAA has south to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, and southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds.

The Gulf Stream edge from the September 15 NOAA note sits 15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That puts clean outside water close enough to matter, especially up toward Molasses, but not close enough to make blind running smart.

If you see birds, weed, bait, flyers, or a hard color edge, take a look. If it is just pretty blue water with no life on it, the reef is the better use of fuel.

florida bay

Florida Bay is calm on paper. NOAA has variable wind near 5 knots becoming south to southwest, with bay waters smooth. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 86.0 F water at 5:54 AM EDT.

That is warm water. Bonefish and permit need moving water, clean edges, and quick handling. Tarpon stay more of a channel and bridge game when the current gives them something to sit in.

tides for sunday, september 20

Whale Harbor Channel is the closest ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
High	4:00 AM EDT	1.34 ft	early high
Low	11:08 AM EDT	0.608 ft	late morning low
High	4:58 PM EDT	1.396 ft	afternoon high
Low	11:45 PM EDT	0.800 ft	late low

Whale Harbor, Windley Key, gives another nearby ocean-side read.

event	time	height	notes
High	3:51 AM EDT	1.477 ft	early high
Low	10:59 AM EDT	0.308 ft	late morning low
High	4:49 PM EDT	1.538 ft	afternoon high
Low	11:36 PM EDT	0.406 ft	late low

Islamorada, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay, gives the bay-side timing.

event	time	height	notes
Low	12:00 AM EDT	0.435 ft	overnight low
High	5:40 AM EDT	0.705 ft	morning high
Low	2:46 PM EDT	0.235 ft	afternoon low
High	8:45 PM EDT	0.479 ft	evening high

For the reef, the turn around the late morning low and the push toward the afternoon high should be the best water to watch. If the current stretches the chum and the water stays clean, yellowtail should cooperate. If the slick hangs under the boat, move before the day gets stale.

reef notes

molasses reef

Molasses gets a good call today. The ride should be comfortable, and the Gulf Stream edge is listed 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light.

Start with yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet if the current behaves. Keep one deeper bait honest for a mutton, but do not turn a working yellowtail bite into a waiting room. The outside is worth a look only if it shows real signs.

conch reef

Conch should be fishable and comfortable in the light southerly setup. The main question is current, not sea height.

Work 50 to 80 feet. Yellowtail are the first play. Mangroves are fair around harder bottom and lower light. Cero mackerel can show in the slick if bait gets nervous.

davis reef

Davis is the practical short-run choice. With storms in the forecast, that matters. You can fish it hard and still keep the day easy to adjust.

Fish 40 to 60 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the cleanest targets. If rain dirties the water or the current gets lazy, slide until the chum line starts acting right.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a good working snapper read. The forecast is small enough to anchor clean, and the incoming water after the late morning low gives the afternoon bite a chance.

Work 55 to 80 feet. Yellowtail should be good with clean current. Muttons are fair on the deeper side. I would keep the plan simple and let the reef tell you if it deserves more time.

alligator reef

Alligator is one of the better balanced options today. NOAA has the Stream edge 15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light, which keeps the outside in the conversation without making it the whole plan.

Fish the reef first. Yellowtail in 45 to 75 feet should be the base play. Muttons are fair deeper. If birds or a hard edge show outside, take a controlled look and come back before weather starts stacking up.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable. I just would not run past biting water to prove a point.

Fish 40 to 70 feet. Yellowtail and mangroves are the main targets. If you are already working west, it makes sense. If Davis, Crocker, or Alligator are doing their job, stay put and fill the box.

species outlook

species	outlook	best play
yellowtail snapper	good	reef line in 40 to 80 feet with chum and clean current
mangrove snapper	fair	ledges and structure where shade and current line up
mutton snapper	fair	deeper reef edge with live bait or fresh cut bait
cero mackerel	fair	chum slicks where bait gathers
mahi mahi	fair	outside only with birds, weed, bait, or color
blackfin tuna	fair	early edge water when bait is present
wahoo	fair	cleaner Stream-side edge water, not a blind promise
bonefish	poor to fair	early moving bay water before the heat builds
permit	poor to fair	clean flow and low light on the bay side
tarpon	fair	channels, bridges, and evening current

Yellowtail get the best grade because the reef sea state is small and the tide gives us usable water. Mangroves are fair around structure. Muttons are possible, but they are not a reason to ignore a steady slick bite.

Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo need signs outside. The Stream is close enough near Molasses to tempt you, but the fish still have to show themselves. Do not let a pretty forecast talk you into empty water.

The bay side is warm. Bonefish and permit need careful timing and quick releases. Tarpon stay fair around bridges and channels where the water is moving.

captain’s call

Reef first. Davis is the easy close play. Crocker and Alligator get my best snapper read. Conch is steady. Molasses is the better upper-end option if you want a short outside check without making the day about offshore water.

Tennessee is fine if the westward move already fits the plan. Otherwise, do not leave biting water just because another reef name is on the chart.

Fish the late morning low and the push toward the afternoon high. Keep the radar up. September can hand you slick-calm reef water, then throw lightning into the picture before your next bait hits bottom.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:32 AM EDT Sunday, September 20, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797, Whale Harbor Windley Key station 8723795, and Islamorada Upper Matecumbe Key Florida Bay station 8723808. Observations from NDBC station 41122, NDBC Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:31 AM EDT, and the broad call did not move much. It is still a light-wind, small-sea setup, with the wet weather doing most of the arguing.

The main change is a little less push outside this afternoon. The morning Straits forecast had south to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and a southeast 1 foot wave at 4 seconds. The midday update brings the Straits down to south to southwest wind near 5 knots, seas around 1 foot, and a southeast 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

Hawk Channel stays friendly on paper. NOAA now has winds becoming south to southwest near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, and smooth nearshore water this afternoon. Florida Bay stays smooth too, with variable wind near 5 knots becoming south to southwest late this morning and afternoon.

But the rain chance is still the part to respect. Showers remain likely, thunderstorms stay in the forecast, and NOAA is still calling out gusty wind, lightning, blinding downpours, and locally hazardous seas around the cells. So the ride can be easy between squalls, but I would keep the day close and keep one eye on the radar.

For the afternoon, the reef call does not change much. Davis, Crocker, Alligator, Conch, and Molasses are still fishable if the sky gives you room. The outside look got a little cleaner on sea height, not safer on storms.

Midday source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:31 AM EDT Sunday, September 20, 2026.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 4:38 PM EDT, and the afternoon story held together about like expected. Light wind, small seas, and a wet September sky that still gets the final vote.

For tonight, Hawk Channel is forecast for variable wind near 5 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots late this evening and overnight. Seas stay 1 foot or less, with nearshore waters smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop. Florida Bay follows the same light pattern, with smooth water building to a light chop. The Straits get south wind near 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight, seas around 1 foot, and a southeast to south 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

That is comfortable water on paper. But NOAA still has showers and thunderstorms in the mix, and the synopsis did not back away from the real hazard: gusty wind, lightning, blinding downpours, and locally hazardous seas around the cells. The boat ride can be easy in the open spaces between weather. The wrong cloud can make it ugly fast.

For Monday, the marine forecast stays fishable if the sky gives us room. Hawk Channel gets south to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and smooth to light chop nearshore water. The Straits get southwest wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and a southeast to south 1 foot wave at 3 seconds. Florida Bay stays smooth to a light chop with south to southwest wind 5 to 10 knots.

The reef plan for tomorrow is still the plain one. Start close, make the reef bite prove itself, and do not turn a good yellowtail setup into a weather gamble. Davis, Crocker, Conch, Alligator, and Molasses all stay in play if the radar behaves. The outside is worth a look only with birds, weed, bait, or a clean edge that is actually holding life.

Monday’s best fishing window should come when the current gives the chum line some shape. If the water is clean and moving, yellowtail get first crack. Mangroves and muttons stay fair around structure and deeper edge. Mahi, blackfin, and wahoo are possible outside, but tomorrow is not a blind-run day. It is a read-the-water day.

Evening source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:38 PM EDT Sunday, September 20, 2026.