Captain's log, September 21, 2026, small seas, wet skies, light south wind

Monday, September 21. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:27 AM EDT, and the ocean is not big today. The catch is the sky.

We have light south flow across the Keys, small seas on the reef and in the Straits, and a sloppy tropical moisture pattern parked over the area. NOAA is calling for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. That means the ride can be fine and still turn nasty fast under a cell.

For a charter day, I would fish it with my head up. Reef first, watch the radar, and do not pretend lightning is just part of the ambience. The reef line from Molasses through Tennessee is in play if you can work around the weather.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	south to southwest near 10 knots in Hawk Channel, becoming south
Hawk Channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters a light chop
Straits	south wind 5 to 10 knots
Straits seas	1 to 2 feet
Wave detail	southeast to south 1 foot at 3 seconds
Florida Bay	south to southwest 5 to 10 knots, smooth to a light chop
Rain	showers likely on the reef side, chance of thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 86.9 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Buoy read	41122 southeast of Key Largo, 1.0 foot at 2 seconds, water 85.3 F at 5:30 AM EDT
Overall call	good sea state, fair fishing window, poor lightning patience

wind and sea state

hawk channel

NOAA has Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the Middle Keys with south to southwest wind near 10 knots, becoming south. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are a light chop. Showers are likely, with a chance of thunderstorms.

That is fishable water. It is not a beatdown forecast. But the rain language matters more than the sea height today. A one foot sea does not help much if a black cloud is dragging lightning over the reef.

The smart play is to start on structure that gives you options. If the weather stacks up east of you, slide. If the water looks clean and the current is moving, settle in and fish. If the sky starts talking, move before it gets rude.

straits of florida

The Straits forecast is friendly on paper. South wind 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 to 2 feet, with a southeast to south 1 foot wave at 3 seconds. That is small water for September.

The Gulf Stream edge is close enough to matter but not sitting on the reef. NOAA listed the shoreward edge as of September 15 at 15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That can put bluewater life within a reasonable look if the radar lets you go and the ocean shows signs.

I would not run blind offshore today just because the seas are low. Find birds, weed, bait, a hard edge, or color. Without that, the reef is the honest program.

florida bay

Florida Bay has south to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop. Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 86.9 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is still warm water. The bay bite needs moving water and timing. Standing around in hot, slack water is a good way to learn patience the hard way.

tides for monday, september 21

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef trip. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
High	5:06 AM EDT	1.367 ft	early high
Low	12:05 PM EDT	0.577 ft	midday low
High	5:55 PM EDT	1.450 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	1:39 AM EDT	0.436 ft	overnight low
High	6:57 AM EDT	0.725 ft	morning high
Low	3:39 PM EDT	0.232 ft	afternoon low
High	9:04 PM EDT	0.523 ft	evening high

For the reef, the morning starts on the back side of the 5:06 AM high and drains toward the 12:05 PM low. If the current keeps a clean slide, yellowtail can chew. If it falls out and the slick starts hanging under the boat, do not fall in love with the anchor drop.

The late afternoon rise toward 5:55 PM is the second window. It is also the part of the day when storms can get annoying, so the tide is useful only if the sky behaves.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses is in play today. The ride should be easy enough with Hawk Channel around 1 foot, and the Gulf Stream edge was listed 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light on the latest NOAA note.

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet on the reef. Keep the chum steady and fish light. Cero mackerel are fair if bait pushes through the slick. If the outside edge shows birds or weed and the radar is clean, a short look past the reef is worth it. Do not force it.

conch reef

Conch should fish fair to good if the current has enough push. South wind is fine for the setup, but showers can make the morning uneven.

Start with yellowtail snapper. Keep a deeper bait ready for mutton snapper if the small fish are not stealing everything before it gets down. Conch can be a good working stop today because you can adjust east or west without committing to a long run.

davis reef

Davis is a practical call when the weather is moving around. It keeps you on the reef line, close enough to make smart changes, with the same small sea state NOAA has across Hawk Channel.

Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Yellowtail snapper are fair if the chum line cleans up. A mutton bait on the deeper side is worth soaking, but I would not sit through dead current waiting for it to become something it is not.

crocker reef

Crocker is fair today. The sea state is not the problem. The question is current and water color.

If the tide is moving and the water has that clean blue-green look, work the yellowtail program. If it gets milky after rain or the slick falls flat, move. There are enough reef options today that stubborn is not a strategy.

alligator reef

Alligator gets one of the better looks on the map. NOAA had the Gulf Stream edge 15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of September 15, so the reef and edge both deserve attention if the weather gives you room.

Yellowtail snapper are the first call. Mutton snapper are fair deeper. Kingfish and cero mackerel are possible when bait is present. Outside of the light, mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible if birds, weed, bait, or a hard color change show up. Small seas do not replace signs of life.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable for boats already working that way or looking for a little room from the Islamorada crowd. Expect the same light chop and the same weather problem.

Yellowtail snapper and mangrove snapper are the sensible targets. If the water gets dirty from passing showers, keep moving until the chum line looks right. Tennessee can pay, but today is not a day to ignore clouds just because the reef looks pretty.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet. The wind is light enough, the sea is small enough, and the tide gives a morning drain into midday plus an evening rise.

Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper reef edge when the current lets a bait settle where it belongs.

Cero mackerel and kingfish are fair if bait is on the reef. Watch the slick. If bait starts scattering and the water has a little shine to it, put something flashy to work.

Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible but not the plan unless the outside gives you real signs. The Straits are only 1 to 2 feet, and the Gulf Stream edge is close enough near Molasses and Alligator to tempt a look. Still, I would make the ocean earn the fuel.

Sailfish are a low to fair shot. September can produce a fish on the edge, but this is not winter sailfish water. If one shows up while you are working bait or the color change, take the gift.

the call from the dock

Fish today, but keep it honest. Reef gear, rain jacket, radar, and a short leash on the weather.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all have a shot because the ocean is small. The winning boat is the one that stays on moving water and does not try to out-tough lightning.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:15 AM EDT. The ocean is still fishable, but the midday package came in a touch bumpier than the early read.

Hawk Channel is now south to southwest 10 to 15 knots early this afternoon, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 3 feet, and nearshore waters go from a light to moderate chop back down to smooth to a light chop. That is not ugly water, but it is more boat motion than the morning forecast’s around 1 foot call.

The Straits also moved up. NOAA now has south to southwest wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast to south 5 to 10 knots late. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with southeast to south wave detail still listed at 1 foot at 3 seconds. This is still manageable for a good crew, but it is no longer the same soft 1 to 2 foot line we had before daylight.

Florida Bay did not change much. South to southwest wind is near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots, with bay waters a light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.

The weather story is the same. NOAA still has a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, then showers likely tonight. Fish the window, keep the radar open, and do not let a small sea state talk you into staying too long under black clouds.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:27 AM EDT and updated 10:15 AM EDT Monday, September 21, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA NDBC station 41122 observation at 5:30 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of September 15, 2026.

evening addendum, 4:24 PM NOAA update

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:24 PM EDT. The afternoon stayed in the same kind of September box. Fishable water, plenty of moisture, and no reason to get lazy with the radar.

The late-day buoy read matched the general feel. Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed 0.5 meters of sea height at 4 seconds at 4:30 PM EDT, which is about 1.6 feet. Water temperature there was 30.4 C, about 86.7 F. Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 87.4 F water at 4:54 PM EDT.

For tonight, NOAA has Hawk Channel south to southwest 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with nearshore waters going from smooth to a light chop to a light to moderate chop. Florida Bay follows the same wind trend, smooth to a light chop building to a light to moderate chop. The Straits are south to southwest 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, building to around 2 feet, with an east to southeast 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

The sky is still the main problem. NOAA keeps showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms over Florida Bay and Hawk Channel tonight. The Straits carry a chance of showers and thunderstorms. That is enough to keep the evening plan simple. If you are not already on fish with clean sky around you, do not go hunting for a late hero run.

tomorrow’s outlook

Tuesday looks fishable, but wet. Hawk Channel gets south to southwest wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas start around 2 feet and settle toward around 1 foot, with nearshore waters easing from a light to moderate chop back to smooth to a light chop.

The Straits get south wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas are around 2 feet, then 1 to 2 feet later. NOAA lists the wave detail as southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Florida Bay is south to southwest near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots, with bay waters a light chop becoming smooth to a light chop.

So the Tuesday plan is still reef first. Start with yellowtail if the current gives the chum line some shape. Keep mangrove and mutton baits honest around structure and the deeper edge. The outside is worth a look only if the ocean shows birds, weed, bait, or a real color edge. Small seas are not the same thing as a sure offshore bite.

NOAA’s bigger setup has unsettled weather hanging around for several days with a broad upper trough over the Gulf waters and Eastern Seaboard. Light to gentle breezes should hold outside of storms, with brief moderate pushes mainly in the evening and overnight. Later in the week, a front starts pushing south and the breeze turns more northerly. Seas should build by late week into the weekend as northeast swell increases, especially in the Straits.

Source note, evening update: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:24 PM EDT Monday, September 21, 2026. NOAA NDBC station 41122 observation at 4:30 PM EDT. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970 at 4:54 PM EDT.