Captain's log, September 22, 2026, small reef seas, south wind, wet sky

Tuesday, September 22. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 10:19 PM EDT last night, and this morning’s report is pretty simple. The ocean is not the bully today. The sky is.

South wind is still on the Keys, reef seas are small, and showers are likely. That is a fishable setup if you keep the radar open and do not get stubborn under a dark cell.

For an Islamorada charter, I would start reef first. Molasses through Tennessee all have a look today. The best boat is the one that finds moving water, keeps the chum working, and leaves itself room to slide when the weather starts walking across the reef.

the quick read

Factor	Today
Wind	south to southwest 10 to 15 knots, becoming 5 to 10 knots this afternoon
Hawk Channel	seas around 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot
Straits	south wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming 5 to 10 knots this afternoon
Straits seas	around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet
Wave detail	southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds
Florida Bay	south to southwest near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots
Rain	showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms
Water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 86.2 F at 5:54 AM EDT
Buoy read	41122 southeast of Key Largo, 1.0 foot at 3 seconds, water 85.8 F at 5:00 AM EDT
Overall call	good sea state, fair weather window, reef first

wind and sea state

hawk channel

NOAA has Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef through the Middle Keys with south to southwest wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas are around 2 feet early, then around 1 foot. Nearshore waters go from a light to moderate chop to smooth to a light chop. Showers are likely, with a chance of thunderstorms.

That is workable reef water. It is not flat, but it is not ugly either. The ride should settle through the day if the forecast verifies.

The catch is the weather. A two foot sea is one thing. A thunderstorm over the reef is another. Fish the clear lanes and do not let a pretty slick talk you into staying too long when the sky starts stacking up.

straits of florida

The Straits are also manageable on paper. NOAA has south wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas are around 2 feet, then 1 to 2 feet later. The listed wave detail is southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds.

Station 41122 southeast of Key Largo showed 0.3 meters at 3 seconds at 5:00 AM EDT, about 1.0 foot. Water temperature there was 29.9 C, which is 85.8 F.

The Gulf Stream edge is close enough to keep things interesting. NOAA listed the shoreward edge as of September 15 at 15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That does not mean burn fuel just because the chart looks tempting. Look for birds, bait, weed, a hard color change, or life on the edge. Without that, the reef is the honest program.

florida bay

Florida Bay is quieter. NOAA has south to southwest wind near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are a light chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

Vaca Key, Florida Bay reported 86.2 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. That is warm water. The bay bite still needs moving tide. Sitting in hot slack water is usually just a lesson in patience.

tides for tuesday, september 22

Whale Harbor Channel gives the ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef trip. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	12:38 AM EDT	0.719 ft	overnight low
High	6:06 AM EDT	1.432 ft	early morning high
Low	12:56 PM EDT	0.520 ft	midday low
High	6:45 PM EDT	1.525 ft	evening high

Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay gives the bay-side picture.

Event	Time	Height	Notes
Low	2:49 AM EDT	0.414 ft	overnight low
High	8:00 AM EDT	0.759 ft	morning high
Low	4:19 PM EDT	0.232 ft	afternoon low
High	9:25 PM EDT	0.575 ft	evening high

For the reef, the morning starts on the back side of the 6:06 AM high and drains toward the 12:56 PM low. If that current holds a clean slide, yellowtail should get a fair chance to chew. If the slick hangs under the boat, move before the small fish and frustration take over.

The evening rise toward 6:45 PM is the second ocean-side window. It is also the time of day when passing weather can make a simple plan complicated. Tide only matters if the sky lets you stay there.

reef reports

molasses reef

Molasses is one of the better calls today because the sea state is small and the Gulf Stream edge was listed 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light on the latest NOAA note.

Start with yellowtail snapper. Keep the chum steady and fish light if the water is clean. Cero mackerel are fair if bait shows in the slick. A short look outside can make sense if the radar is clean and the edge has birds or weed on it. Do not force it just because the seas are kind.

conch reef

Conch should be fair to good if the current keeps moving. South wind is fine for the setup, but showers can dirty the water or break up the morning rhythm.

Yellowtail snapper are the first target. Keep a deeper bait ready for mutton snapper if the current lets it get down without getting mugged. Conch is also practical today because you can adjust east or west without turning the whole trip into a long run.

davis reef

Davis is a sensible weather-day reef. It keeps you in the line of fishable structure and gives you room to change gears without getting married to one drop.

Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Yellowtail snapper are fair when the slick shapes up. A mutton bait on the deeper side is worth soaking, but I would not sit through dead water hoping it becomes a bite.

crocker reef

Crocker gets a fair report today. The forecast sea state is not the issue. Current, water color, and passing showers will decide how long you stay.

If the tide is moving and the water has a clean blue-green look, work the yellowtail program. If the water gets milky or the slick falls flat, move. There are enough options on this reef line today that stubborn is expensive.

alligator reef

Alligator has a good shot if the weather gives you a clean lane. NOAA had the Gulf Stream edge 15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of September 15, so the reef and the nearby outside water both deserve attention.

Yellowtail snapper are the main call. Mutton snapper are fair deeper. Kingfish and cero mackerel are possible if bait is around. Outside the light, mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible when the ocean shows signs. Birds matter. Weed matters. A hard color edge matters. Empty blue water is just fuel burn with a nicer view.

tennessee reef

Tennessee is fishable today for boats already working that direction or trying to get a little room from the Islamorada crowd. Expect the same small seas and the same wet-weather problem.

Yellowtail snapper and mangrove snapper are the practical targets. If passing showers dirty the water, keep moving until the chum line looks right. Tennessee can pay, but it is not a day to ignore clouds because the reef looks friendly.

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper are the best bet. The sea is small enough, the tide gives a morning drain plus an evening rise, and the reef line has enough room to hunt for clean water.

Mangrove snapper are fair around structure. Mutton snapper are fair on the deeper edge when the current lets a bait settle where it belongs.

Cero mackerel and kingfish are fair if bait is on the reef. Watch the slick. If bait starts flashing or scattering, get something moving through it.

Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna are possible, not promised. The Straits are fishable, and the Gulf Stream edge is close enough near Molasses and Alligator to tempt a look. I would still make the ocean show me birds, weed, bait, or a real color change before committing.

Sailfish are a low to fair shot. This is not winter sailfish water, but September can still hand you one around bait or an edge. If it happens while you are doing the right things anyway, take the gift.

the call from the dock

Fish it, but keep it tight. Reef gear, rain jacket, radar, and a plan that can change fast.

Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee are all in play because the ocean is small. The winning move is finding moving water and leaving before the weather makes the decision for you.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA Key West issued a new coastal waters forecast at 10:17 AM EDT, and the sea state still looks friendly. The bigger thing is the rain chance hanging around the day.

Hawk Channel improved on paper. This morning’s report had south to southwest wind 10 to 15 knots, becoming 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, with seas around 2 feet early and around 1 foot later. The midday update keeps the wind south at 10 to 15 knots, but now puts seas around 1 foot for this afternoon. Nearshore waters are still a light to moderate chop, and showers remain likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

The Straits did not ease as much as the morning forecast suggested. NOAA now has south winds 10 to 15 knots this afternoon with seas around 1 foot and a southeast 1 foot wave at 3 seconds. Tonight goes southeast to south 10 to 15 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet. That is still fishable water, but it is not the afternoon drop to 5 to 10 knots that was in the early report.

Florida Bay also shifted a little. The morning had south to southwest wind near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. The new forecast has southeast to south wind near 10 knots this afternoon, with bay waters a light chop. Tonight drops to 5 to 10 knots and smooth to a light chop.

So the call has not changed much. Reef first still makes sense, especially with Hawk Channel and the reef edge sitting small. But the weather is still the boss. Keep the radar close, work clean water when you get it, and do not trust a dark cell just because the ocean is laying down.

Source notes: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecasts FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:19 PM EDT Monday, September 21, 2026 and 10:17 AM EDT Tuesday, September 22, 2026. NOAA CO-OPS tide predictions from Islamorada, Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797 and Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay station 8723808. NOAA CO-OPS water temperature from Vaca Key, Florida Bay station 8723970. NOAA NDBC station 41122 observation at 5:00 AM EDT. Gulf Stream edge positions from NWS Key West as of September 15, 2026.