Captain's log, September 23, 2026, light southwest wind, one foot reef seas, storms around

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Wednesday, September 23. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:47 AM EDT, and the Islamorada reef line gets a soft sea state with wet weather still hanging around.

The wind is not the problem today. NOAA has southwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots across Hawk Channel, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits sit at 1 to 2 feet with a south 1 foot wave at 4 seconds. That is workable water for a charter boat.

The sky is the part to respect. NOAA is calling for showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms, and the larger pattern keeps deep tropical moisture over the Keys for the next few days. A calm ocean can turn mean fast under a September storm cell. Leave early, keep the radar up, and do not let a pretty first hour make the decisions for the rest of the day.

the quick read

factor	today
wind	southwest to west 5 to 10 knots on the reef
hawk channel	seas around 1 ft, nearshore waters smooth to a light chop
straits	seas 1 to 2 ft, south 1 ft at 4 seconds
rain	showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms
observed wind	Long Key, south wind about 14 knots, gusting 17 knots at 4:48 AM EDT
water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 85.8 F at 4:48 AM EDT
gulf stream	15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light
overall call	good reef window, fair outside look, storms decide the schedule

Long Key C-MAN was showing wind from 190 degrees at 7.2 meters per second at 4:48 AM EDT, which is about 14 knots, gusting about 17 knots. Vaca Key, Florida Bay, showed 85.8 F water at the same time. Molasses Reef’s old MLRF1 station has no recent live report because that station was disestablished in 2023, so I am not pretending it gave us a reading.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the cleanest plan today. NOAA has southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west to southwest, with seas around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile.

That puts Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee reefs in play. It does not mean every patch of bottom fishes the same. On a light southwest setup, the boat can sit nice in some spots and wrong in others. If the chum line is not laying out, move. Do not spend an hour feeding fish off the wrong corner.

Molasses and Conch get the best shot at clean reef water if the tide and current agree. Davis and Crocker are good middle-ground calls when the sky looks unsettled because you can work without getting married to one long run. Alligator and Tennessee are worth a look if the current is right and the radar gives you room.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable, but I would treat the outside as a look, not the whole game plan. NOAA has southwest to west winds 5 to 10 knots and seas 1 to 2 feet, with a south 1 foot wave at 4 seconds.

That is not much sea. The issue is the weather pattern. Tropical moisture is still parked over the Keys, and NOAA has scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times through the next few days. If you see birds, flyers, weed, bait, color change, or a real edge, go investigate. If it is just empty pretty water, the reef deserves the time.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream note from September 15 puts the shoreward edge 15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light. That is not glued to the reef, but it is close enough to matter for an Upper Keys offshore look if the signs are there.

florida bay

Florida Bay is light on paper. The broader Keys forecast has bay waters smooth to a light chop under southwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots.

The water is still warm. Vaca Key showed 85.8 F before sunrise. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still feed in September, but I want moving water and an early window. Midday hot water with no current is mostly a good way to practice patience.

tides for wednesday, september 23

Whale Harbor Channel is the closest NOAA ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
low	1:23 AM EDT	0.608 ft	overnight low
high	7:00 AM EDT	1.523 ft	morning high
low	1:41 PM EDT	0.453 ft	early afternoon low
high	7:29 PM EDT	1.603 ft	evening high

That falling water through late morning and early afternoon should matter on the reef. If the current runs clean, yellowtails and mangroves get more honest behind the boat. If it goes slack or sideways, do not get sentimental.

reef call from molasses to tennessee

reef	call	read
molasses	good	light southwest wind, close enough to the Stream for a look if the water shows life
conch	good	good reef plan if current lays the chum straight
davis	good	short enough run and sensible with storms around
crocker	good	solid middle reef option, especially if the sky looks better west
alligator	fair to good	watch the radar, the Stream edge is farther offshore than earlier summer setups
tennessee	fair	still fishable, but do not ignore building weather west of Islamorada

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper is the first honest reef target today. One foot seas and light wind help the setup, but the current still has to do its job. Mangrove snapper can chew if the water moves and the chum brings life up. Muttons are worth a deeper drop around sand and reef edges, especially around the tide turns.

Cero mackerel, small kingfish, and the usual reef speedsters are possible if bait stacks up. Keep a live bait ready when the slick starts looking nervous.

Offshore, mahi are possible but not automatic. The Gulf Stream edge is listed 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses and 15 NM east-southeast of Alligator, so do not run blind unless the ocean gives you signs. Blackfin tuna are still a Hump and edge-of-current conversation. Wahoo can show up on clean edges and around moon/current windows, but today is more of a watch-and-react setup than a high-speed hero day.

Sailfish are not the main September play. A stray fish can happen around the reef edge, especially with bait and weather in the mix, but this is still snapper, mackerel, mahi, and tuna season before it is sailfish season.

captain’s call

Fish the reef first. Start where the current and weather give you the cleanest hour, not where yesterday’s story sounded best.

If the reef is alive, stay on it. If the water goes dead and the radar gives you a clean lane, take a controlled look outside for weed, bait, birds, or a color edge. And if the storms start stacking up, come home with the fish you have instead of trying to win an argument with September.

midday addendum

NOAA Key West updated the coastal waters forecast at 10:16 AM EDT. The midday read did not move the goalposts much for Islamorada, but it did keep the weather leash short.

For this afternoon, Hawk Channel is still southwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits are still southwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet and a south 1 foot wave at 4 seconds. Florida Bay is also southwest to west 5 to 10 knots with smooth to light chop water.

So the wind and sea call is basically steady from the morning report. The change is not a harder breeze. It is NOAA keeping showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms through the afternoon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight. That means the reef is still the smart working plan, but only with eyes on the radar and an easy way home.

The other midday note is later in the week. NOAA now has winds briefly going light and variable on Thursday, then taking a northerly heading after a frontal boundary pushes south across the Keys waters late in the week. Seas are expected to start building by the end of the week and into the weekend as northerly swell builds, especially in the eastern Straits of Florida.

For today, nothing about that changes the call. Fish the clean reef window, do not trust a dark cloud, and be glad the sea state is not the problem.

evening addendum

NOAA Key West put out the evening coastal waters forecast at 4:52 PM EDT. The afternoon did not turn into a wind fight. It stayed a light southwest to west setup with small water and the same September problem sitting over it, scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Tonight, Hawk Channel gets southwest wind 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. Florida Bay has southwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots with smooth to light chop bay water. The Straits are also southwest at 5 to 10 knots, seas around 1 foot, with a south to southwest 1 foot wave at 4 seconds.

That is good working water if the sky leaves you alone. And that is the whole deal. A soft sea state does not make lightning harmless, and it does not make a storm cell polite. The boats that kept a reef-first plan and stayed loose had the right idea. Yellowtail and mangrove snapper were still the cleanest grocery bet when the current behaved. A short outside look made sense only where the water showed birds, weed, bait, or a real edge.

tomorrow’s outlook

Thursday looks light, but wet. NOAA has Hawk Channel west to northwest near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less, and nearshore waters smooth. Florida Bay goes west to northwest near 5 knots, variable at times, with smooth bay water. The Straits run west 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 foot or less and a southwest 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

The rain chance stays in the plan. NOAA has showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in Florida Bay, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms for Hawk Channel and the Straits. So tomorrow is not a lazy green light. It is a small-water day where the radar still gets a vote.

The fishing call stays reef first. Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, and Alligator all deserve a look if the current lines up. Yellowtail snapper get first billing. Mangroves and muttons are worth the time around the right bottom. Offshore is a look, not a promise. The Gulf Stream edge is still listed 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light and 15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light from NOAA’s September 15 note, close enough to matter if the ocean shows life.

Late week is the part to watch. NOAA expects a frontal boundary to push south across the Keys waters, turning winds northerly after Thursday. Seas in the eastern Straits are expected to build at the end of the week and into the weekend on an incoming 4 to 5 foot northerly swell. If you want the cleaner small-water shot, Thursday is the better-looking window before that swell starts talking.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:47 AM EDT, 10:16 AM EDT, and 4:52 PM EDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797. Observations from NDBC Long Key station LKWF1 and NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970. Gulf Stream edge positions from the NOAA Key West forecast as of September 15, 2026.