Captain's log, September 24, 2026, near calm reef water, wet sky, big swell coming for the weekend

Thursday, September 24. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 10:26 PM EDT Wednesday night, and it still reads like a small-water day on the Islamorada reef. The wind is barely worth a mention. The sky and the weekend are the parts that need attention.

the quick read

factor	today
wind	west to northwest near 5 knots on Hawk Channel, variable at times
hawk channel	seas 1 ft or less, nearshore waters smooth
straits	west 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 ft or less, southwest 1 ft at 3 seconds
rain	showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms
observed wind	Long Key, northwest wind about 5 knots, gusting about 6 knots at 4:42 AM EDT
water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 84.9 F at 5:54 AM EDT
gulf stream	15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light
overall call	good reef window, fair outside look, storms and weekend swell both deserve respect

Long Key C-MAN was showing wind from 310 degrees at 2.6 meters per second at 4:42 AM EDT, which is about 5 knots, gusting about 6 knots. Vaca Key, Florida Bay, showed 84.9 F water at 5:54 AM EDT. Sombrero Key was reading 340 degrees at about 3 knots. Nobody is losing sleep over the breeze today.

That is the trap. A near flat ocean in September gets people comfortable, and comfortable is how you end up twenty miles out watching a black cell build on the horizon. The sea state is the easy part of this forecast.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is clean. NOAA has west to northwest winds near 5 knots, variable at times, with seas 1 foot or less and nearshore waters smooth from Ocean Reef through Craig Key and west toward Seven Mile.

That puts Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee in play. The difference today is current, not wind. With almost no breeze to push the boat, the boat sits however the tide decides to sit, and that is either perfect or useless depending on where you set up. Watch the chum before you commit an hour to a spot.

straits of florida

The Straits are fishable outside. NOAA has west winds 5 to 10 knots, seas 1 foot or less, and a southwest 1 foot wave at 3 seconds. That is about as gentle as the Florida Straits get.

It changes fast, though. NOAA has a frontal boundary pushing south across the Keys waters after Thursday, and seas in the eastern Straits are forecast to build to 4 to 5 feet in a northerly swell by the end of the week and into the weekend. That is not a today problem. It is a Saturday problem, and it is the reason today is the better offshore look if you want one.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream note from September 15 puts the shoreward edge 15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Close enough to matter for an Upper Keys outside look if the water shows life.

florida bay

Florida Bay is light. NOAA has west to northwest wind near 5 knots, variable at times, with smooth bay water. That is about as kind as it gets for a flats skiff.

Water is still warm at 84.9 F. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can feed in September, but I want moving water and an early start. Flat calm and hot with no tide is mostly a lesson in patience.

tides for thursday, september 24

Whale Harbor Channel is the closest NOAA ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
low	2:04 AM EDT	0.482 ft	overnight low, already passed
high	7:48 AM EDT	1.625 ft	morning high
low	2:22 PM EDT	0.389 ft	early afternoon low
high	8:10 PM EDT	1.672 ft	evening high

The morning high already came through, so most of the fishing day runs on falling water. That is fine for reef snapper if the current runs clean behind the boat. When it goes slack in the lower afternoon stages, move rather than wait it out. The evening high lines up with the last hour of light for anyone fishing late.

reef call from molasses to tennessee

reef	call	read
molasses	good	near flat water and the closest reef to the Stream edge, worth a look if the water shows color or birds
conch	good	best bet if the current lays the chum line straight
davis	good	short run, easy to leave if a cell builds
crocker	fair to good	solid middle option, workable current most of the day
alligator	fair	the Stream edge is 15 NM off here, so offshore is more of a run than at Molasses
tennessee	fair	fishable, but watch weather building to the west

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper is the honest reef target today. Flat water makes the anchor and the chum setup easy, but the current still has to do the work. Mangrove snapper should chew if the water moves and the chum brings life up. Muttons are worth a deeper drop on sand and rock edges around the tide turns.

Cero mackerel and small kings can show if bait stacks up. Keep a live bait ready once the slick starts looking nervous.

Offshore, mahi are possible on the edge but not automatic. At 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses, the Stream edge is close enough for a supervised look, not a blind run. Blackfin tuna stay a Hump and current-edge conversation. Wahoo can turn up on clean edges around current and moon windows, but today is a watch-and-react setup.

Sailfish are not the September play. A stray fish around the reef edge with bait and weather in the mix is possible. This is snapper, mackerel, mahi, and tuna season before it is sailfish season.

captain’s call

Use today. The reef is the first stop, and the outside look is the bonus if the water gives you a reason.

If the current is right and the radar is clean, a controlled run to the edge for weed, bait, birds, or a color line is worth the fuel. If the sky starts stacking, come home with the fish you have. And plan the weekend now, because the northerly swell is going to change the conversation for the eastern Straits.

tomorrow’s outlook

Friday is a transition day. NOAA has north winds near 10 knots early, easing to 5 to 10 knots, with seas 1 to 2 feet in Hawk Channel and nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. The Straits build to 2 to 4 feet off the Upper Keys in a north swell, and Florida Bay sits at a light chop.

Rain chance stays in the plan. NOAA has showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in Florida Bay and a chance of showers and thunderstorms for Hawk Channel and the Straits.

The fishing call stays reef first. Molasses, Conch, Davis, and Crocker all deserve a look if the current lines up. Yellowtail snapper get first billing. Mangroves and muttons are worth the time on the right bottom. The outside is a look, not a promise.

By Friday night and Saturday the picture turns. NOAA has north to northeast winds building to 10 to 15 knots, with seas in the eastern Straits running 3 to 5 feet in a north swell off the Upper Keys. If you want the small-water shot this week, Thursday is it.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 10:26 PM EDT Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797. Observations from NDBC Long Key station LKWF1, Sombrero Key station SMKF1, and NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970. Gulf Stream edge positions from the NOAA Key West forecast as of September 15, 2026.

midday update, 3:30 PM EDT

NOAA updated the forecast at 10:21 AM EDT with one clear shift. The frontal boundary is now tracking south across the Keys on Friday rather than after Thursday. That tightens the window for any outside run this week.

Hawk Channel and the reef stayed exactly as described: near flat water, light north to northwest wind near 5 knots, seas 1 foot or less. No surprise today, no change.

The Straits are still fishable on the edge with west winds 5 to 10 knots, but the build is coming fast. NOAA has seas jumping to 2 to 4 feet off the Upper Keys by Friday and pushing into 3 to 5 feet in a northerly swell Saturday. That north swell does not play nice with snapper boats trying to hold position over a reef.

Rain stays on the schedule through the end of the week as deep tropical moisture lingers across the region. The afternoon showed scattered showers moving through, which is normal for late September but adds another reason to know your turnaround time.

Bottom line today: the reef is still open if the radar stays clear. The eastern Straits are a look with an exit strategy, not a commitment. Plan around Friday’s front and Saturday’s 4 to 5 foot northerly swell. If you want the small-water shot this week, it is happening now.