Captain's Log, September 25, 2026, front moved through, north wind on the reef, 4 to 5 foot swell building offshore for the weekend

Friday, September 25. NOAA Key West issued the coastal waters forecast at 4:36 AM EDT, and the front that has been hanging over the Keys all week finally pushed through. The wind shifted north and freshened behind it. That is the headline for today. The reef is still workable, but it is not the flat water we had Thursday, and there is a serious swell coming for the weekend.

the quick read

factor	today
wind	north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots on Hawk Channel
hawk channel	seas around 1 foot, nearshore waters a light to moderate chop becoming smooth to light chop
straits	north to northeast 10 to 15 knots, seas 2 to 3 feet, 3 to 5 feet off the Upper Keys in a northerly swell
rain	chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms
observed wind	Vaca Key, north-northeast wind about 13 knots, gusting about 15 knots at 5:54 AM EDT
water temperature	Vaca Key, Florida Bay, 85.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT
gulf stream	15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light, 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light
overall call	reef fishable with a breeze, outside is a 3 to 5 foot build, and the weekend swell changes the plan

Vaca Key, Florida Bay, was showing wind from 32 degrees at 13 knots, gusting to 15 knots, at 5:54 AM EDT. The same station read 85.5 F water. Small craft caution was up in the Gulf waters this morning until the wind settled. This is a post-frontal morning, so the wind will ease through the day but the sea state offshore will not follow it down.

wind and sea state

hawk channel

Hawk Channel is the play today. NOAA has north to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north to northwest and decreasing to 5 to 10 knots, with seas around 1 foot and nearshore waters going from a light to moderate chop to smooth to a light chop.

That puts Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee all in reach. The morning will be the windiest part, so plan the first anchor for later if you can. By midday the breeze backs off and the reef settles. A north wind on this coast is not the kiss of death it is other places. It lays the boat one way and the chum line the other, and the snapper do not care.

straits of florida

The Straits are not the easy look they were Thursday. NOAA has north to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10, with seas 2 to 3 feet and 3 to 5 feet off the Upper Keys in a northerly swell. Wave detail shows a north 1 foot wave at 3 seconds.

That 3 to 5 foot number is the part to respect. NOAA is tracking an incoming 4 to 5 foot northerly swell following the frontal passage, and it builds in the eastern Straits today and into the weekend. For a snapper boat trying to hold over a reef, that is uncomfortable and often unworkable. If you run outside today, treat it as a supervised look with an exit, not a full offshore day.

NOAA’s Gulf Stream note from September 15 puts the shoreward edge 15 NM east-southeast of Alligator Reef Light and 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses Reef Light. The edge is close enough to matter, but the swell is going to be the deciding factor.

florida bay

Florida Bay is fishable but breezy. NOAA has north winds near 10 knots decreasing to near 5, with bay waters a light chop becoming smooth and a chance of showers.

Water is 85.5 F, so the temperature is fine. The wind is the issue, and it backs off through the day. Bonefish, permit, and tarpon can still move in September, but with a north breeze early the flats are a later-morning play. Let the chop lie down and take the first good hour.

tides for friday, september 25

Whale Harbor Channel is the closest NOAA ocean-side tide read for an Islamorada reef run. Times are local EDT and heights are feet above MLLW.

event	time	height	notes
low	2:42 AM EDT	0.354 ft	overnight low, already passed
high	8:32 AM EDT	1.724 ft	morning high
low	3:02 PM EDT	0.338 ft	early afternoon low
high	8:50 PM EDT	1.724 ft	evening high

The morning high is about to come through, so the middle of the day runs on falling water. That is fine for reef snapper if the current stays clean behind the boat. When it goes slack in the lower afternoon stages, move rather than wait it out. The evening high lines up with the last hour of light for anyone fishing late.

reef call from molasses to tennessee

reef	call	read
molasses	good	closest reef to the Stream edge, and with the swell building this is the shortest trip for an outside peek
conch	good	best bet once the wind backs off and the chum line lays straight
davis	good	short run, easy to leave if the chop stacks up
crocker	fair to good	solid middle option, workable current most of the day
alligator	fair	Stream edge is 15 NM off here, so the outside is a longer run than at Molasses
tennessee	fair	fishable, but the wind is up first and it stays breezier on the west side

species outlook

Yellowtail snapper is the honest reef target today. The wind makes the anchor and the chum setup a little more work than Thursday, but the current does the rest. Mangrove snapper should chew once the chum brings life up. Muttons are worth a deeper drop on sand and rock edges around the tide turns.

Cero mackerel and small kings can show if bait stacks up behind the front. Keep a live bait ready once the slick starts looking nervous.

Offshore, mahi are possible on the edge but the 3 to 5 foot swell off the Upper Keys is the price of admission. At 8 NM east-southeast of Molasses, the Stream edge is close enough for a controlled look, not a blind commitment. Blackfin tuna stay a Hump and current-edge conversation. Wahoo can turn up on clean edges around current and moon windows, but today is a watch-and-react setup with a weather clock.

Sailfish are not the September play. A stray fish around the reef edge with bait and a fresh north breeze in the mix is possible. This is snapper, mackerel, mahi, and tuna season before it is sailfish season.

captain’s call

Use the reef, and use the morning carefully. The wind is strongest early, so if the first stop is rough, run to leeward ground or wait an hour for the breeze to ease. Molasses, Conch, and Davis all hold fish and all stay workable through the day.

The outside is a look with an exit strategy today, not a plan. If the water shows color, bait, or birds on the edge and the radar stays clean, a controlled run is worth the fuel. If the swell is already standing up, come home with the reef fish you have.

And plan the weekend now. The northerly swell is real and it changes the whole offshore picture.

tomorrow’s outlook

Saturday is a transition that plays out in the water. NOAA has north to northeast winds 5 to 10 knots in Hawk Channel with seas 1 to 2 feet, so the reef stays fishable. The Straits are the problem. NOAA has seas 2 to 3 feet, except 3 to 5 feet in a northerly swell off the Upper Keys, with a wave detail showing northeast 2 feet at 9 seconds. That is a building sea, not a settling one.

Rain chances stay in the plan for Hawk Channel and the Straits, and Florida Bay holds a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The fishing call for Saturday is reef first, same as today, with the wind down a notch. Yellowtail snapper still get first billing. Mangroves and muttons are worth the time on the right bottom. The outside is a gamble with a 4 to 5 foot northerly swell in the eastern Straits, and that is a hard sell on a snapper boat.

If you want the small-water shot clean and easy, today after the breeze lays down is your window. By Saturday the swell owns the outside.

midday update

NOAA refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 10:47 AM EDT, and the morning call holds but the reef numbers ticked up a touch. The front is still pushing south through the afternoon, and the wind is not backing off as fast as the early forecast hoped.

Hawk Channel went from seas around 1 foot to 1 to 2 feet, with north winds 10 to 15 knots holding, only easing to near 10 knots this afternoon instead of dropping to 5 to 10. The nearshore chop is a light to moderate chop settling to a light chop. That is still fishable water on Molasses, Conch, Davis, and Crocker, but it is a bit sloppier on the reef than this morning’s look suggested, and west of Cosgrove Shoal it runs 2 to 3 feet. Give the first anchor a little more attention to the tide and the wind line.

Florida Bay stays on the light chop plan, north to northeast near 10 knots easing to 5 to 10, with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunder. The water is still 85.5 F, so the temperature is not the problem, just the afternoon breeze on the flats.

The Straits did not change. Still 2 to 3 feet, 3 to 5 feet off the Upper Keys in that northerly swell, north 1 foot at 3 seconds on the wave detail. The weekend swell is locked in through Sunday as the Nor’easter off the Eastern Seaboard keeps feeding it in. If you go outside today, it is still a look with an exit, and the window closes as the afternoon goes on.

One number to note if you run the Gulf side: the Gulf of America zones are showing north to northeast winds near 15 knots this afternoon with seas 2 to 3 feet, so that side stays the breeziest corner of the day.

Net for the rest of the day: reef first, watch the chop early, and plan the weekend around the swell, not against it. The morning read was close, the midday read just says it is a little rougher on the reef and no calmer outside.

evening update

NOAA refreshed the coastal waters forecast at 4:27 PM EDT, and the story for tonight is the swell hanging on. The front is still draped across the distant Straits, holding the light to gentle northerlies, and the Nor’easter off the Eastern Seaboard is still feeding a northeasterly swell with long periods into the eastern marine zones through Sunday.

Through the afternoon the reef settled into a workable groove. Hawk Channel ran 1 to 2 feet with a light chop, which is the fishable window we wanted. The Gulf side was the breeziest corner all day, north to northeast near 10 knots building to 10 to 15 by the afternoon and seas around 2 feet. Offshore the Straits from Ocean Reef to Craig Key never smoothed out, 3 to 4 feet and occasionally 5 on the northeast swell, and it is still standing up this evening. The wave detail shows north to northeast 4 feet at 11 seconds. That is the swell that owns the outside tonight and into the weekend.

For tonight, expect north to northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to near 10, Hawk Channel 1 to 2 feet, and the nearshore moving from a light chop to a smooth to light chop. A chance of showers sticks around in the eastern zones.

tomorrow, saturday

Saturday is the smoother day on the reef, and the small water is the clean call. Hawk Channel goes north to northeast near 10 knots becoming variable near 5, with seas 1 to 2 feet and nearshore waters a light chop becoming smooth. Florida Bay matches, with a light chop settling to smooth. Alligator, Conch, Davis, and Molasses all hold fish and all get easier as the wind drops out.

The Straits are still a separate conversation. North winds near 10 knots decreasing to 5 to 10, seas 2 to 4 feet and occasionally 5 off the Upper Keys on the northeast swell, with a wave detail of north to northeast 4 feet at 12 seconds. That is not flat water, and it is not a snapper offshore day. The swell keeps running through Sunday as the Nor’easter feeds it.

Rain stays in the plan for Saturday with a slight chance of showers across Hawk Channel, Florida Bay, and the Straits. By Monday the front pushes back north and winds clock around to southeast to south, with rain and thunder chances stepping up into next week.

The call: reef first, small water first, and let the outside wait until the swell lays down. Sunday is still building toward the back end of the weekend, so keep an eye on it if you are weighing a trip.

Always a good time on DirtyBoat.

Source note: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast FZUS52 KKEY issued 4:36 AM EDT Friday, September 25, 2026, with an evening refresh at 4:27 PM EDT. Tide predictions from NOAA Tides and Currents for Whale Harbor Channel station 8723797. Observations from NOAA CO-OPS Vaca Key station 8723970. Gulf Stream edge positions from the NOAA Key West forecast as of September 15, 2026.