Captain's Log, September 26, 2026, light wind with a northeast swell outside

The wind is easing, but I would not call the outside flat. NOAA’s 10:22 AM EDT forecast puts Hawk Channel at 1 to 2 feet this afternoon. Beyond the reef, northeast swell keeps the eastern Straits at 2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5. That is the difference to keep in mind before choosing a reef trip or a longer offshore run.

This is a forecast-based planning report for Saturday, September 26, not a report of fish caught aboard today. The reef notes below are regional guidance, not individual reef observations.

Wind and seas

For Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key, NOAA calls for north to northeast winds near 10 knots, becoming variable near 5 knots this afternoon. Seas stay at 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from a light chop to smooth, with a slight chance of showers.

Outside, in the Straits from Ocean Reef to Craig Key, north winds near 10 knots decrease to 5 to 10. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet due to northeast swell. The wave detail is north to northeast 4 feet at 12 seconds. Less wind does not mean that swell has gone away. Watch how it behaves over shallow reef edges before getting close.

Those sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. NOAA notes that individual waves can be more than twice that height.

Florida Bay has north to northeast winds near 10 knots, becoming west to northwest 5 to 10. Bay waters ease from a light chop to smooth to a light chop. There is a slight chance of showers there too.

From Molasses to Tennessee

I would use the Hawk Channel forecast for the approach, then reassess the exposed edge. It is not a separate sea forecast for each reef, and I do not have verified visibility or current readings at these spots today.

Reef area	Planning note
Molasses	Allow for northeast swell on the exposed side. The protected approach does not tell you what the outer edge is doing.
Conch	Check the swell before committing outside. I would choose a legal fishing position based on the current actually showing at the boat.
Davis	The regional forecast favors a closer reef plan over a long offshore run. Check the shallow edge rather than assuming the channel’s sea height carries across it.
Crocker	Look at how the boat lies against the current before settling in. Light, variable wind can leave an awkward bait presentation.
Alligator	Keep the reef decision separate from the offshore decision. The eastern Straits still carry the 2 to 4 foot forecast with occasional 5-foot seas.
Tennessee	Use the same cautious approach at the exposed reef. There is no verified local reading here that justifies calling it calmer than the other spots.

These names describe reef areas, not permission to fish inside protected boundaries. NOAA’s sanctuary preservation area rules prohibit fishing and collecting. Check the current NOAA zone map for the exact spot before putting lines in, and keep anchors off coral.

Today’s tides

NOAA predictions for Whale Harbor Channel, station 8723797, are below. Times are local EDT. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW, not the depth under your boat.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	3:20 AM	0.238
High	9:16 AM	1.807
Low	3:42 PM	0.308
High	9:29 PM	1.756

The next low after this late-morning update is 3:42 PM. These are predicted water levels, not observed tides or a reef-current schedule. High and low water do not establish slack current at your fishing spot. Watch the actual flow before deciding how to fish it.

Water temperature

NOAA’s Vaca Key station in Florida Bay reported 85.5 F at 11:30 AM EDT today, September 26. That is a regional bay reading, not an Islamorada reef temperature. I would check the boat’s temperature gauge on arrival rather than carry that number out to Molasses or Alligator.

What I would fish for

Yellowtail snapper would be my first reef option, on legal bottom outside protected zones. I would see whether the current carries the chum clear of the boat before spending much time on a set. A light-wind forecast alone does not promise a bite.

Mangrove snapper would be another option. For mutton snapper, I would base a bottom-fishing attempt on the drift and the bottom showing on the sounder, not on the Whale Harbor high-water time.

Mahi or blackfin tuna would mean making a separate offshore call. I would want evidence of bait or fish before spending the fuel, and a crew comfortable with the swell forecast. There are no verified catch reports behind today’s outlook, so I am not calling either bite hot.

Looking toward Sunday

Hawk Channel winds become variable near 5 knots Sunday, with seas 1 to 2 feet subsiding to around 1 foot. The eastern Straits remain at 2 to 3 feet, with north to northeast wave detail of 2 feet at 13 seconds. The swell is still part of the plan even as the wind drops.

For this afternoon, I would start with a legal reef spot and leave room to change the trip after seeing the water. Check the latest forecast before leaving the dock.

Sources

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued September 26, 2026, at 10:22 AM EDT. Hawk Channel GMZ042, eastern Straits GMZ052/072, and Florida Bay GMZ031.
• NOAA Whale Harbor Channel tide predictions, September 26, 2026, local daylight time and MLLW datum.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, September 26, 2026, at 15:30 UTC, equivalent to 11:30 AM EDT.
• NOAA sanctuary preservation area rules and map.

Sources checked at approximately 11:38 AM EDT on September 26. Forecasts may change after publication.