Captain's Log, September 27, 2026, light wind with swell still outside

I would keep the northeast swell in the plan this morning, even with very little wind forecast. NOAA has Hawk Channel at 1 to 2 feet today, while the eastern Straits hold at 2 to 3 feet. That leaves a reasonable reef trip to consider, but I would look at the exposed edge before deciding where to settle in.

This is a forecast-based report for Sunday, September 27, not a log of fish caught aboard today. The reef notes are planning guidance. I do not have verified current or visibility readings for individual reefs.

Wind and seas

NOAA’s 4:12 AM EDT forecast calls for northwest to north winds near 5 knots in Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key, becoming southwest. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, with smooth nearshore waters and a slight chance of showers.

Outside the reef, the Straits from Ocean Reef to Craig Key have west to northwest winds near 5 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. The wave detail is north to northeast 2 feet at 13 seconds. That longer-period swell is the part I would watch near shallow reef edges. Smooth water on the way out is not proof that the exposed reef will be smooth too.

Florida Bay has north winds near 5 knots, becoming light and variable. Bay waters are smooth, with a slight chance of showers.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice that height.

From Molasses to Tennessee

These are regional forecasts, not six separate reef measurements. Use the channel forecast for the approach and reassess the water where you intend to fish.

Reef area	Today’s planning note
Molasses	Watch the exposed side for the forecast northeast swell. Do not carry the smooth nearshore forecast across the reef without looking.
Conch	Check the swell at the edge, then choose a legal fishing position based on the current actually showing at the boat.
Davis	A closer reef plan is worth considering in this light wind. I would still check the shallow edge before committing to a set.
Crocker	See how the boat lies against the current. With little wind, bait presentation may matter more than the ride out.
Alligator	Keep the channel approach separate from the offshore decision. Outside, the regional forecast remains 2 to 3 feet with long-period swell.
Tennessee	Check the exposed reef before settling in. There is no verified local reading here that supports calling it calmer than the other areas.

Reef names are not permission to fish within protected boundaries. NOAA’s sanctuary preservation area rules prohibit fishing at the protected areas discussed here. Check the NOAA zone map for your exact position before putting lines in. Keep anchors off coral.

Today’s tides

These are NOAA predictions for Whale Harbor Channel, station 8723797. Times are local EDT. Heights are feet above mean lower low water, or MLLW, not the depth under the boat.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	3:58 AM	0.145
High	9:59 AM	1.863
Low	4:23 PM	0.306
High	10:09 PM	1.767

The morning high is at 9:59 AM. I would use that as a water-level reference, not a promise of slack current on the reef. Watch the actual flow at the fishing spot.

Water temperature

NOAA’s Vaca Key station in Florida Bay reported 84.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT today, September 27. That is a regional bay observation, not a temperature measured at an Islamorada reef. I would check the boat’s gauge on arrival.

The Molasses Reef real-time data feed was unavailable when checked this morning, so there is no fresh Molasses reading in this report.

What I would fish for

Yellowtail snapper would be my first reef option on legal fishing grounds outside protected zones. I would give the set a chance only if the current carries the chum away from the boat. A light breeze does not tell us whether the fish will feed.

Mangrove snapper are another option. For a mutton snapper attempt, I would make the decision from the bottom and drift in front of me rather than the time of high tide at Whale Harbor.

Mahi or blackfin tuna would mean a separate offshore call. I would want a crew comfortable with the swell and some sign of fish before committing much fuel. There are no verified catch reports behind this outlook, and I am not calling an offshore bite hot.

Looking toward Monday

Tonight, Hawk Channel stays at 1 to 2 feet before subsiding to around 1 foot. Outside, seas ease to 1 to 2 feet, but the wave detail still carries north to northeast 2 feet at 13 seconds.

Monday’s channel forecast has southwest to west winds near 5 knots and seas 1 foot or less. The eastern Straits remain at 1 to 2 feet. Shower and thunderstorm chances return, so check the updated forecast before leaving the dock.

Sources

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued September 27, 2026, at 4:12 AM EDT. Hawk Channel GMZ042, eastern Straits GMZ052/072 and Florida Bay GMZ031.
• NOAA Whale Harbor Channel tide predictions, September 27, 2026, local daylight time and MLLW datum.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, September 27, 2026, at 09:54 UTC, equivalent to 5:54 AM EDT.
• NOAA sanctuary preservation area rules and map.

Sources checked at approximately 6:01 AM EDT on September 27. Forecasts may change after publication.