Captain's log, September 28, 2026, light winds and a late morning update

Prepared for late publication at 11:36 AM EDT on September 28, 2026

The light-wind forecast leaves room to consider a reef trip today. I would still take a look at the exposed edge before settling in. NOAA keeps a little northerly swell off the Upper Keys, and the wind is forecast to turn during the day.

This report is being published late after the scheduled morning report failed to publish. It includes the recovered midday update below. Conditions were checked at 11:34 AM EDT on Monday, September 28. This is forecast-based trip planning, not a report of fish caught aboard today. There are no verified visibility or current measurements for the individual reefs in this report.

Wind and seas

NOAA’s 10:21 AM EDT forecast calls for west to northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots in Hawk Channel, becoming south to southwest at 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, with a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Outside the reef, the Straits forecast has southwest to west winds of 5 to 10 knots, becoming south to southwest. Seas are around 1 foot, except 1 to 2 feet off the Upper Keys because of northerly swell. The listed wave detail is northwest 1 foot at 3 seconds. I would not use the channel’s lower sea forecast as a promise of flat water outside.

Florida Bay has west to northwest winds near 5 knots, becoming southwest at 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters go from smooth to a light chop, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

A nearby observation is worth separating from that forecast. Long Key’s NDBC station reported wind from 040 degrees true at 3.6 meters per second, about 7 knots, at 11:00 AM EDT. Gusts were 4.6 meters per second, about 9 knots. That is one station reading, not proof of the wind at every reef or confirmation that the forecast turn has already happened.

Sea heights in the NOAA forecast are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves can be more than twice that height. Check the latest forecast and radar before leaving, especially with thunderstorms possible.

From Molasses to Tennessee

These notes apply the regional forecast to trip planning. They are not six separate reef observations, and they do not rate today’s bite.

Reef area	Today’s planning note
Molasses	Allow for the lingering northerly swell on the exposed side. The Molasses real-time feed was unavailable when checked, so there is no fresh station reading here.
Conch	Check the exposed edge before choosing a legal fishing position. The light channel forecast does not tell us the current over the bottom.
Davis	A closer reef plan is worth considering, but I would check the water at the edge before committing to a set. Visibility is unverified.
Crocker	See how the boat lies as the wind turns. Make the bait presentation fit the current actually showing at the boat.
Alligator	Keep the channel approach and the outside decision separate. Upper Keys offshore seas remain forecast at 1 to 2 feet despite the light breeze.
Tennessee	Use the same regional forecast, then reassess on arrival. There is no local measurement here that supports calling this area calmer than the others.

Reef names are not permission to fish inside protected boundaries. Fishing is prohibited in sanctuary preservation areas at these reef locations. Check the NOAA zone map for the exact position and applicable rules before putting lines in. Keep anchors off coral.

Today’s tides

NOAA’s predictions for Whale Harbor Channel, station 8723797, are below. Times are local EDT on September 28. Heights are feet above mean lower low water, or MLLW, not the depth under the boat.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	4:38 AM	0.086
High	10:43 AM	1.885
Low	5:05 PM	0.335
High	10:50 PM	1.757

The next predicted low after this late morning check is 5:05 PM. Use the table as a water-level reference. It does not establish the time of slack current at an offshore fishing spot.

Water temperature

NOAA’s Vaca Key station in Florida Bay reported 85.3 F at 11:24 AM EDT today, September 28. That is a regional bay observation, not a temperature measured on the Islamorada reef tract. Check the boat’s gauge where you fish.

The Molasses Reef real-time feed returned unavailable when checked. Long Key’s latest row had no water-temperature value. There is no verified reef temperature to substitute for those missing readings.

What I would fish for

Yellowtail snapper would be a reef option on legal fishing grounds outside protected zones. I would want the current carrying the chum away from the boat before giving a set much time. A comfortable ride does not guarantee a feeding bite.

Mangrove snapper are another option. For a mutton snapper attempt, I would work from the bottom and drift in front of me, not assume that Whale Harbor’s tide time describes the reef current.

Mahi or blackfin tuna would be a separate offshore decision. I would want signs of fish before spending much fuel looking. There are no verified catch reports behind this outlook, and no claim that any of these species are biting today.

Midday addendum, recovered with this late report

The scheduled morning report did not publish, so there is no published morning baseline to compare against. This addendum records the fresh 10:21 AM EDT NOAA forecast checked at 11:34 AM EDT, rather than inventing a morning-to-midday change.

Hawk Channel remains forecast at 5 to 10 knots with seas 1 foot or less, with the wind turning south to southwest. The Upper Keys offshore forecast keeps 1 to 2 foot seas from lingering northerly swell. These are the current forecast values, not measured changes since dawn. The Long Key observation above still showed a northeasterly wind at 11:00 AM, which is a reason to check conditions at the boat rather than assume the turn is complete.

Tonight, Hawk Channel has south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 foot. Outside, southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots become southeast to south, with seas around 1 foot. Showers are likely offshore with a chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday’s channel forecast has southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots increasing to near 10 knots, with seas around 1 foot building to 1 to 2 feet. Outside, winds become east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots and seas build to 1 to 2 feet. Check for a newer forecast before making tomorrow’s plan.

Sources

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued September 28, 2026, at 10:21 AM EDT. Hawk Channel, Upper Keys Straits and Florida Bay zones.
• NOAA Whale Harbor Channel tide predictions, September 28, 2026, local daylight time and MLLW datum.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, September 28 at 15:24 UTC, equivalent to 11:24 AM EDT.
• NOAA NDBC Long Key observations, latest available row September 28 at 15:00 UTC, equivalent to 11:00 AM EDT. Wind units converted from meters per second to knots and rounded.
• NOAA NDBC Molasses Reef feed, unavailable when checked.
• NOAA sanctuary preservation area rules and map.

Sources checked at approximately 11:34 AM EDT on September 28. Forecasts and observations may change after this check.

Evening addendum, September 28

Updated at 5:00 PM EDT using NOAA’s 4:22 PM EDT coastal waters forecast. This update supersedes the earlier outlook for tonight and Tuesday.

Afternoon recap

The afternoon forecast still leaves a light-wind window for the reef. NOAA expects the old frontal boundary to lift north across the Keys this evening, with winds turning as it moves through. That is the forecast setup, not confirmation of what happened at the boat. No verified afternoon catch log or reef observations were available for this update, so there is no afternoon bite report to add.

For tonight, Hawk Channel has south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are forecast smooth to a light chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Outside the reef, southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots become south, with seas around 1 foot. Showers are likely in the Straits, with a chance of thunderstorms. A low sea forecast is not a reason to sit through lightning.

Tomorrow

Tuesday, September 29, looks lighter inside than outside. Hawk Channel has southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 foot. Nearshore waters stay smooth to a light chop. Showers are likely, with a chance of thunderstorms. This afternoon’s forecast no longer has channel seas building to 1 to 2 feet during Tuesday, as the earlier outlook did.

In the Straits off the Upper Keys, southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots become east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots. Seas are forecast at 1 to 2 feet, with wave detail of east to southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds. Showers are likely, with a chance of thunderstorms. By Tuesday night, east winds hold at 10 to 15 knots and seas build to 2 to 3 feet.

I would keep a legal reef option in mind and make the offshore call after checking the morning radar and the water outside. The current at the boat still decides how I set up for snapper. There is no fresh catch information here that supports promising a bite. With the breeze forecast to build later in the week, I would check the next forecast before locking in a longer run.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued September 28, 2026, at 4:22 PM EDT and checked at 5:00 PM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044 and Straits zones including GMZ052 and GMZ072. Sea heights are significant wave heights; individual waves may be more than twice as high.