Captain's log, September 29, 2026, light early wind with rain in the forecast

The early wind forecast gives us room to consider the reef. The rain forecast deserves just as much attention. NOAA has showers likely today with a chance of thunderstorms, and the breeze turns east to southeast as the day goes on. I would check radar before choosing how far to run.

This is a forecast-based plan prepared around 6:00 AM EDT on September 29, not a report of fish caught aboard today. There are no verified current or visibility readings for the six reef areas below.

Wind and seas

NOAA’s 4:25 AM EDT forecast calls for variable winds of 5 to 10 knots in Hawk Channel, becoming east to southeast near 10 knots this afternoon. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters are forecast smooth to a light chop early, becoming a light chop this afternoon.

Outside the reef, the Straits forecast starts with variable winds of 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas are also 1 to 2 feet, with wave detail of southeast to south 2 feet at 3 seconds. That short spacing matters when deciding whether the ride suits the crew.

Florida Bay starts light and variable, becoming east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Bay waters go from smooth to smooth with a light chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms in all three areas. The low sea forecast is not protection from a squall.

Sombrero Key’s NDBC station reported southwest wind at 3 knots, gusting to 5 knots, at 5:30 AM EDT. That is a regional observation down the Keys, not a measurement at Alligator or Molasses.

Tonight, Hawk Channel has east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots, with seas of 1 to 2 feet building to around 2 feet. Outside, winds increase to near 15 knots and seas build to 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday’s offshore forecast builds to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally 6 feet. I would not carry today’s trip plan unchanged into tomorrow.

NOAA sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check the latest forecast and radar again before leaving.

From Molasses to Tennessee

The regional forecast supports these planning notes. It does not tell us which reef has clean water or a feeding bite this morning. The channel approach and exposed side can feel different even when the forecast gives both the same sea range.

Reef area	Today’s planning note
Molasses	Allow for the stronger afternoon breeze outside. The Molasses station has no recent reports, so there is no local wind or temperature reading to lean on.
Conch	Check the exposed water before settling on a legal fishing position. I would judge the current at the boat rather than assume the early light wind means an easy set.
Davis	A shorter reef plan is worth considering if radar leaves a workable window. Visibility is unverified, so do not choose the spot on a promise of clear water.
Crocker	Watch how the boat lies as the wind turns east to southeast. Move or adjust the presentation if the set stops working.
Alligator	Keep an eye on the return route while watching showers offshore. The afternoon Straits forecast is 10 to 15 knots, stronger than the channel forecast.
Tennessee	Reassess the exposed edge on arrival. There is no separate observation here that makes this area a proven calmer choice than the other reefs.

These are reef-area references, not permission to fish inside protected boundaries. Check NOAA’s current zone map for your exact position. Fishing is prohibited in sanctuary preservation areas at these reef locations. Keep anchors off coral.

Today’s tides

These NOAA predictions are for Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay, station 8723808. All times are EDT on September 29. Heights are feet above mean lower low water, or MLLW, not water depth beneath the boat.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
High	12:14 AM	0.874
Low	8:06 AM	0.059
High	1:27 PM	0.655
Low	7:41 PM	0.311

The next predicted low after this morning’s check is 8:06 AM. This is a bayside water-level reference. It does not give the time of slack current at the reef or in a nearby channel.

Water temperature

NOAA’s Vaca Key station in Florida Bay reported 85.3 F at 5:54 AM EDT today. That is a regional bay reading, not an Islamorada reef temperature.

Molasses Reef’s NDBC page lists no recent reports. Sombrero Key’s current observation does not include water temperature. I would use the boat’s gauge at the fishing spot rather than turn the Vaca Key reading into a number for all six reefs.

What I would fish for

Yellowtail snapper would be my first reef option to investigate on legal fishing grounds. I would want to see how the current carries the chum before committing much time to a set. A light breeze alone does not tell us whether that setup will work.

Mangrove snapper would be another option around suitable structure. For a mutton snapper attempt, I would make the presentation fit the drift we actually have. The bayside tide table cannot make that decision for us.

Mahi or blackfin tuna would mean a separate offshore call. I would want a clear weather window before spending time looking beyond the reef, especially with the afternoon breeze forecast to increase. There are no verified catch reports behind this outlook, and no claim that these fish are biting today. Check current species rules before keeping fish.

Sources

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued September 29, 2026, at 4:25 AM EDT. Hawk Channel, Straits and Florida Bay forecasts.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, September 29, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, latest returned reading at 09:54 UTC, or 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Sombrero Key observations, September 29 at 09:30 UTC, or 5:30 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.
• NOAA sanctuary preservation area rules and map.

Sources checked around 6:00 AM EDT on September 29. Forecasts and observations can change after this check.

Midday addendum, 11:30 AM EDT

The 10:11 AM EDT NOAA forecast keeps the afternoon plan much the same as this morning. Hawk Channel still has 1 to 2 foot seas, with east to southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots becoming near 10 knots. Outside the reef, seas remain 1 to 2 feet while east to southeast winds increase from 5 to 10 knots to 10 to 15 knots. The offshore wave detail is unchanged at southeast to south 2 feet at 3 seconds.

The early variable wind wording has dropped out of the afternoon forecast. That follows the turn east to southeast already expected this morning, rather than a new jump in wind or seas. Florida Bay remains at 5 to 10 knots from the east to southeast, with smooth water becoming smooth to a light chop.

Showers are still likely with a chance of thunderstorms across the bay, Hawk Channel and the Straits. I would keep checking radar before stretching the run outside. Tonight’s offshore forecast still builds to 2 to 3 feet with winds increasing to near 15 knots. This is a forecast update, not a fresh observation from the boat.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued September 29, 2026, at 10:11 AM EDT and checked at 11:30 AM EDT.

Evening addendum, 5:00 PM EDT

Afternoon recap

The afternoon forecast check puts tomorrow’s building breeze ahead of any long offshore plan. We do not have a verified afternoon catch report or fresh readings from the boat to add here. This is a weather update, not a claim about how the fishing went.

NOAA’s 4:29 PM EDT forecast calls for east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots tonight in Hawk Channel, with seas of 1 to 2 feet and a light to moderate chop nearshore. Outside the reef, tonight’s Straits forecast has the same wind range with seas of 2 to 3 feet. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms in both areas.

Tomorrow’s outlook, September 30

Wednesday in Hawk Channel starts with east winds of 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas build from around 2 feet to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet. Nearshore waters become choppy. That is a different ride from the low sea forecast we started with this morning.

In the Straits, east winds near 15 knots increase to 15 to 20 knots. Seas build from 2 to 3 feet to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally 6 feet. Wednesday night gets rougher, with east winds near 20 knots and seas of 4 to 6 feet, occasionally 8 feet. I would not plan a long offshore day around the lower numbers at the start of the forecast.

Florida Bay offers a lower sea-state forecast, but not a pass on the weather. East winds of 10 to 15 knots increase to near 15 knots Wednesday, with a light to moderate chop becoming a moderate chop. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms there too, as they are in Hawk Channel and the Straits.

I would check the morning forecast and radar before settling on a route, and keep a shorter trip in mind if conditions allow. Staying closer does not make lightning safe. NOAA says marine cautions may be needed in portions of Keys waters as the breeze builds, and advisories cannot be ruled out. That is an outlook, not a statement that an advisory is in effect now.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued September 29, 2026, at 4:29 PM EDT and checked at 5:00 PM EDT. These are forecast conditions, not observed afternoon seas. NOAA sea heights are significant wave heights; individual waves may be more than twice as high.