Captain's log, September 30, 2026, building seas along the reef

I would keep today’s reef plan short and leave room to change it. The morning forecast starts lower than it finishes, with more wind coming tonight. Showers are likely, and thunderstorms could close off a route that looked workable at the dock.

This is a forecast-based fishing plan prepared around 6:00 AM EDT on September 30. It is not a catch report or an observation from the boat. We do not have verified current or visibility readings for the reef areas below.

Wind and seas

NOAA’s 4:20 AM EDT forecast puts Hawk Channel winds east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots this afternoon. Seas start at 2 to 3 feet and build to 3 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet. Nearshore waters go from a light to moderate chop to a moderate chop.

Outside the reef, the Straits forecast has east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas build from 2 to 3 feet to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally 6 feet. The wave detail is east 4 feet at 5 seconds. That short spacing is worth paying attention to before committing to a longer offshore run.

Florida Bay starts with northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast near 15 knots this afternoon. A light to moderate chop becomes a moderate chop. The bay also has showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Staying inside is not protection from lightning.

Tonight gets rougher. Hawk Channel winds increase to 15 to 20 knots from the east, with seas of 3 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet. In the Straits, east to southeast winds increase from 15 to 20 knots to near 20 knots. Offshore seas reach 4 to 6 feet, occasionally 8 feet. NOAA says a small craft advisory may be required tonight. That is forecast wording, not confirmation that an advisory is in effect.

These are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check the latest forecast and radar before leaving, not just the lower numbers at the beginning of the day.

From Molasses to Tennessee

The channel approach falls under the Hawk Channel forecast above. Exposed water outside the reef falls under the Straits forecast. These are regional ranges, not six separate reef measurements, and there is no verified calmer spot to recommend from this data alone.

Reef area	Today’s planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Use the regional forecast for planning, then judge the actual ride before continuing outside.
Conch	Allow for seas to build during the trip. Check the return route before spending time on a legal fishing spot near the reef area.
Davis	A limited reef trip would be my starting consideration if weather permits. Do not count on clear water or an easy current set without checking at the boat.
Crocker	Pay attention to how the wind and current put the boat on a set. The forecast cannot tell us whether a chum line will work here today.
Alligator	Keep the building Straits seas in mind before moving beyond the reef. There is no fresh local observation here to replace the forecast.
Tennessee	Reassess the exposed water on arrival. Nothing in the available observations establishes this as a calmer alternative to the other reef areas.

These names are geographic references, not instructions to fish inside protected areas. NOAA prohibits fishing in sanctuary preservation areas. Check the current zone map for the exact position you intend to fish, and keep anchors off coral.

Today’s tides

NOAA’s predictions below are for Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay, station 8723808. Times are EDT on September 30. Heights are feet above mean lower low water, or MLLW, not the depth under the boat.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
High	12:51 AM	0.889
Low	8:58 AM	0.060
High	2:20 PM	0.582
Low	8:15 PM	0.332

The morning low is still ahead at the time of this report. This is a bayside water-level reference, not a prediction of slack current at Conch or Alligator. I would make the fishing setup fit the current we find rather than transfer these times to the reef.

Water temperature

NOAA’s Vaca Key station in Florida Bay reported 84.0 F at 5:54 AM EDT today, or 09:54 UTC. That is a regional bay observation down the Keys. It is not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Molasses Reef’s NDBC page lists no recent reports. There is no verified local reef temperature to publish from that station, so I would use the boat’s gauge at the fishing spot rather than substitute the Vaca Key reading.

What I would fish for

Yellowtail snapper would be my first reef option to investigate on legal fishing grounds if the ride and weather allow it. I would watch the current before committing to a chum setup. If the boat will not lie right, sitting longer is not much of a plan.

Mangrove snapper would be another option around suitable structure. A mutton snapper attempt would depend on whether we can control the presentation in the drift we actually have. Those are target choices, not claims of a bite this morning.

I would put a longer mahi or blackfin tuna search behind the reef option today. The building offshore seas make the return trip part of that decision from the start. We have no verified catches to report, and this outlook does not promise fish at a particular spot. Check current species regulations before keeping anything.

Sources

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued September 30, 2026, at 4:20 AM EDT.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, September 30, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, latest returned reading at 09:54 UTC.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.
• NOAA sanctuary preservation area rules and map.

Sources checked around 6:00 AM EDT on September 30. Forecasts and observations can change after this check.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA’s 10:31 AM EDT update trims the afternoon offshore seas from the morning forecast. The Straits now call for east to southeast winds near 15 knots with seas of 2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet. This morning’s afternoon range was 3 to 5 feet, occasionally 6 feet. The east wave detail is still 4 feet at 5 seconds. That is a forecast revision, not a report that the water has laid down.

Hawk Channel now has east winds of 10 to 15 knots, becoming east to southeast near 15 knots this afternoon. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet, instead of the morning’s building 3 to 4 foot range. Nearshore waters are listed as a light to moderate chop. Florida Bay still works toward east to southeast winds near 15 knots and a moderate chop. Showers remain likely with a chance of thunderstorms across these waters.

Tonight’s offshore forecast has not eased. East to southeast winds increase from 15 to 20 knots to near 20 knots, with seas of 4 to 6 feet, occasionally 8 feet. NOAA still says a small craft advisory may be required tonight. That does not mean one has been issued.

I would not turn the lower afternoon sea range into a reason to stretch an offshore trip. The short wave spacing is still there, and the forecast gets rougher tonight. Check fresh radar and the latest marine forecast before making the run. This update is forecast-based, not an observation from the boat.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued September 30, 2026, at 10:31 AM EDT and checked at 11:30 AM EDT. The morning report above is preserved for comparison.

Evening addendum, 5:00 PM EDT

Afternoon recap

The important change this afternoon is the advisory. NOAA’s 4:17 PM EDT forecast now lists a small craft advisory in effect for the Straits of Florida. The midday update above said one might be required tonight. That earlier wording is no longer current.

We do not have a verified afternoon catch report or fresh observations from the boat. This recap covers the forecast change, not how the fishing went.

Tonight in Hawk Channel, east to southeast winds are forecast at 15 to 20 knots, with seas of 2 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet. Nearshore waters are choppy, and small craft should exercise caution. In the Straits, winds increase from 15 to 20 knots to near 20 knots. Seas build from 3 to 5 feet, occasionally 6 feet, to 4 to 6 feet, occasionally 8 feet. Both areas have showers with a chance of thunderstorms.

Tomorrow’s outlook, October 1

Thursday is not a day I would plan around a long offshore run. The Straits forecast calls for east to southeast winds near 20 knots, decreasing to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 5 to 6 feet, occasionally 8 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 6 feet at 6 seconds. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms.

Hawk Channel is no easy substitute. East to southeast winds near 20 knots come with seas of 3 to 5 feet, occasionally 6 feet, and rough nearshore waters. NOAA says a small craft advisory may be required there Thursday. That is separate from the advisory already in effect for the Straits. Showers with a chance of thunderstorms remain in the channel forecast.

Florida Bay has east to southeast winds of 15 to 20 knots Thursday, with choppy bay waters. Showers are likely with a chance of thunderstorms there too. I would not call the bay a safe fallback just because the offshore seas are higher.

I would check the latest advisory and radar before making a departure call tomorrow. If the actual conditions do not leave a workable route home, I would stay at the dock. There is no verified bite in this update worth building a trip around.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued September 30, 2026, at 4:17 PM EDT and checked at 5:00 PM EDT. These are forecast conditions, not observed afternoon seas. NOAA sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high.