Captain's log, October 1, 2026, rough water and a late evening report

Prepared for late publication at 5:04 PM EDT on October 1, 2026.

I would not make a long offshore run the plan tonight. The Straits have a small craft advisory in effect, and the channel is not a calm substitute. There is enough weather in this forecast to leave the boat at the dock if the route home does not look workable.

Today’s scheduled morning report did not publish. This is a late recovery using sources checked around 5:03 PM EDT, with the evening outlook included below. There is no published morning baseline to compare against, and this does not reconstruct a morning or midday report. It is forecast-based trip planning, not a catch report. No verified afternoon catch log, reef visibility readings or local current measurements were available.

Wind and seas tonight

NOAA’s 4:12 PM EDT forecast has east to southeast winds of 20 knots in the Straits, with seas of 5 to 6 feet, occasionally 8 feet. The wave detail is east 5 feet at 6 seconds. A small craft advisory is in effect. Showers are likely, with a chance of thunderstorms.

Hawk Channel has east to southeast winds of 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 3 to 5 feet, occasionally 6 feet, with choppy nearshore waters. Small craft should exercise caution. Showers are likely there too, with a chance of thunderstorms.

Florida Bay has east to southeast winds near 15 knots and a moderate chop tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are possible. The lower wave exposure inside does not protect a boat from lightning or make every bay route suitable.

NOAA sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. These are regional forecasts, not measured seas at the boat. Check the latest advisory and radar before a departure decision.

From Molasses to Tennessee

The channel approach uses the Hawk Channel forecast above. Exposed water outside the reef uses the Straits forecast. The notes below do not imply six separate observations or a verified calmer place to fish.

Reef area	Planning note
Molasses	NDBC lists no recent station reports. Do not substitute an old reef reading for tonight’s advisory and exposed-water forecast.
Conch	A short run still needs a workable return route. There is no verified local current or sea reading here to justify treating this area as sheltered.
Davis	Keep the channel’s 3 to 5 foot forecast in the decision before considering legal fishing grounds near the reef. Visibility is unverified.
Crocker	Wind and current may make a set difficult. We do not have a local observation showing how the boat would lie or whether a chum line would work.
Alligator	Going beyond the reef means planning around the Straits advisory, not carrying the bay’s lower chop forecast offshore.
Tennessee	Nothing in the available observations establishes this as a calmer alternative. Reassess the actual ride rather than move here expecting a better forecast.

Reef names are geographic references, not permission to fish within protected boundaries. Fishing is prohibited in sanctuary preservation areas at these reef locations. Check NOAA’s current zone map for the exact position before putting lines in. Keep anchors off coral.

Today’s tides

NOAA’s predictions are for Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay, station 8723808. Times are EDT on October 1. Heights are feet above mean lower low water, or MLLW, not water depth under the boat.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
High	1:34 AM	0.889
Low	9:58 AM	0.085
High	3:20 PM	0.515
Low	8:53 PM	0.356

The first three predictions are already past at preparation time. The next predicted low is 8:53 PM. This is a bayside water-level reference, not a prediction of slack current at an offshore reef.

Water temperature

NOAA’s Vaca Key station in Florida Bay reported 82.0 F at 4:54 PM EDT today, or 20:54 UTC. That is a regional bay observation down the Keys, not a temperature measured at any of the six reef areas.

Molasses Reef’s NDBC page lists no recent reports. There is no verified fresh reef temperature to publish from that station. Use the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than assume the bay reading applies outside.

What I would fish for

Yellowtail snapper would be a reef option to consider on legal fishing grounds only if the conditions allow a sensible trip. I would want to see the current at the boat before committing to a chum setup. This forecast does not establish a bite.

Mangrove snapper are another possible target around suitable structure. A mutton snapper attempt would depend on controlling the presentation in the actual drift. The bayside tide table cannot make that decision for us.

A longer mahi or blackfin tuna search would be well down my list with these offshore seas. There are no verified catches behind this outlook, and no claim that any of these fish were biting today. Check current species rules before retaining a catch.

Evening outlook, recovered with this report

Afternoon recap

No verified afternoon catch report or boat observations were available. The reliable update is NOAA’s 4:12 PM EDT forecast, not a claim about what happened on the water. Because the morning report never published, there is no morning-to-evening comparison to make here. Tonight’s advisory and sea ranges are stated above.

Tomorrow, October 2

Friday’s Straits forecast eases the wind to east to southeast at 15 to 20 knots, but seas remain 4 to 6 feet, occasionally 8 feet. The wave detail remains east 5 feet at 6 seconds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms remains. That is not enough easing for me to build a long offshore plan around it.

Hawk Channel has east to southeast winds of 15 to 20 knots Friday, with seas of 3 to 5 feet, occasionally 6 feet. Nearshore waters remain choppy. Florida Bay has east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots and a light to moderate chop. Both areas still have a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday night, the Straits forecast has east to southeast winds near 15 knots and seas of 4 to 5 feet, occasionally 6 feet. In Hawk Channel, winds are near 15 knots with seas of 3 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet. Check a newer forecast before using those later numbers to plan a trip. The advisory status can change, and a forecast of easing wind is not an observation that the water has settled.

Sources

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 1, 2026, at 4:12 PM EDT. Florida Bay, Hawk Channel and Straits zones including the Upper Keys.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 1, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 1 at 20:54 UTC, equivalent to 4:54 PM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.
• NOAA sanctuary preservation area rules and map.

Sources checked around 5:03 PM EDT on October 1. Forecasts and observations may change after this check.