Captain's log, October 2, 2026, a choppy start on the reef

Prepared at 6:02 AM EDT on October 2, 2026, using sources checked between 6:00 and 6:02 AM EDT.

I would keep a long offshore run off the early plan. The Straits are under a small craft advisory, and the five-second wave period leaves little room between waves. Hawk Channel has less sea in the forecast, but it is still a choppy ride rather than a sheltered promise.

This is the scheduled morning conditions report, not a report from a boat already fishing. No verified catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this post. The reef notes below are planning judgments from the regional forecast, not separate measurements at each reef.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal forecast was issued at 4:34 AM EDT on October 2. For the Straits outside the reef, east to southeast winds start near 20 knots and decrease to 15 to 20 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet. The wave detail is east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. A small craft advisory is in effect, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Hawk Channel has east to southeast winds of 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are choppy, becoming a moderate chop. Small craft should exercise caution. Showers and thunderstorms are possible here too.

Florida Bay starts with east to southeast winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. A moderate chop becomes a light to moderate chop. A chance of thunderstorms remains, so going inside does not remove the weather decision.

These are forecast significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check the current advisory and radar before leaving. A forecast of easing wind later today is not proof that the ride has already settled.

From Molasses to Tennessee

Use the Hawk Channel forecast for the channel approach and the Straits forecast for exposed water outside the reef. There are no verified local visibility or current readings for these six areas in this report.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	NDBC lists no recent station reports. Plan from the regional forecast rather than an old reef reading, especially before crossing into exposed water.
Conch	A shorter run does not take away the east to southeast chop. I would assess the return ride before committing to nearby legal fishing grounds.
Davis	The channel’s 2 to 3 foot seas still matter on the approach. There is no local observation here showing a calmer pocket or fishable visibility.
Crocker	Check the actual current before setting up. We do not have a verified drift or wind-against-current observation to say how a chum line would lie.
Alligator	Beyond the reef, use the offshore advisory and 3 to 4 foot forecast, occasionally 5 feet. The bay’s lower chop forecast does not apply outside.
Tennessee	There is no measured improvement here to justify running farther for supposedly better water. Let the actual ride and the route home decide.

These names identify areas, not permission to fish every spot within them. Check the current sanctuary zoning and fishing restrictions for your exact position. Keep anchors off coral and stay outside no-fishing zones when putting lines in.

Today’s tides

The tide reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. All times below are EDT on October 2, 2026. Heights are feet above mean lower low water, or MLLW. They are predicted water levels, not soundings or measured reef currents.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
High	2:25 AM	0.872
Low	11:09 AM	0.124
High	4:37 PM	0.471
Low	9:43 PM	0.384

The first high is already past at preparation time. The next predicted low is 11:09 AM. This is a bayside station. Do not use its high or low time as a promise of slack water on the Atlantic reef.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 81.3 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 2, equivalent to 09:54 UTC. This is a regional bay observation farther down the Keys, not a measured temperature at Molasses or any of the other reef areas covered here.

The Molasses Reef NDBC station, MLRF1, showed no recent reports when checked. A fresh reef temperature from that station is unavailable. Check the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than carry the bay reading offshore as fact.

Species outlook

Yellowtail snapper would be a reef option on legal fishing grounds if the ride and current allow a sensible setup. I would want to see how the boat lies before committing to a chum line. Nothing in this forecast establishes an active bite.

Mangrove snapper are another possible target around suitable structure. For mutton snapper, the practical question is whether the actual drift allows a controlled presentation. The bayside tide table cannot answer that offshore.

I would put a longer mahi search behind the weather decision today. The same goes for an offshore blackfin tuna plan. There are no verified catches behind either suggestion, and no fresh bait or weed-line observations to point a boat toward. Check current size limits and seasons before retaining fish.

Later today and tonight

The morning forecast calls for the wind to ease, not for flat water. Tonight, the Straits have east to southeast winds of 15 to 20 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Seas remain 3 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet, with east waves of 3 feet at 5 seconds.

Hawk Channel tonight has east to southeast winds near 15 knots, with seas of 3 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet. That is a higher forecast sea range than the channel has for daytime. A chance of showers and thunderstorms continues in both areas. I would not count on the ride home improving just because the wind is forecast to drop a little.

Sources

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 2, 2026, at 4:34 AM EDT. Upper Keys Hawk Channel and Straits zones, plus Florida Bay.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 2, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 2 at 09:54 UTC, equivalent to 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Forecasts and observations may change after this morning’s source check.

Evening update, October 2, 2026

Prepared at 5:01 PM EDT on October 2, 2026. This addendum uses NOAA’s 4:20 PM EDT coastal waters forecast, checked at 5:00 PM EDT. The morning report above is preserved as published; use this newer forecast for tonight and Saturday.

Afternoon recap

No verified afternoon catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this update. I cannot say the bite improved or that the ride settled. What changed is the forecast: the latest coastal bulletin no longer carries the morning’s small craft advisory for the Straits, and it calls for lower seas as tonight goes on. Check current warnings before leaving rather than treating that change as an all-clear.

There is no fresh reef temperature or current measurement in this addendum. The morning water temperature and tide table retain their original times and limitations. They are not afternoon observations.

Tonight’s ride

For Hawk Channel, NOAA calls for east winds near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas of 2 to 3 feet subside to around 2 feet. Nearshore waters go from a moderate chop to a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers and thunderstorms remains.

Outside the reef in the Straits, east to southeast winds near 15 knots decrease to 10 to 15 knots. Seas start at 3 to 4 feet, occasionally 5 feet, then subside to 2 to 3 feet. The wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. That is still short-period water, not a promise of a comfortable run. Showers and thunderstorms are possible here too.

Florida Bay has east winds of 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. A light to moderate chop becomes a light chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday, October 3

Tomorrow’s Hawk Channel forecast is east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots, seas around 2 feet and a light to moderate chop nearshore. The Straits have east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots with seas of 2 to 3 feet. Offshore wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Both areas retain a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Florida Bay stays at east winds of 10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible. NOAA describes a gradual slackening trend into Saturday, but it does not forecast flat water.

I would give a reef trip another look in the morning before committing to a longer offshore run. For Molasses and Conch, judge the channel approach separately from the exposed water outside. Davis and Crocker need the same check of the actual ride and current before setting up. At Alligator and Tennessee, do not substitute the bay forecast for conditions beyond the reef. These are regional planning notes, not six separate reef observations.

Yellowtail or mangrove snapper on legal fishing grounds would be options if the boat lies well enough to fish. A mutton snapper plan still depends on a manageable drift. Mahi and blackfin tuna remain possibilities rather than a reported bite; there are no verified afternoon catches or fresh bait reports here to justify a long search. Check sanctuary boundaries and current fishing rules at the actual fishing position.

The sea heights above are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves can be more than twice that high. Recheck the marine forecast and radar before Saturday’s departure.

Evening forecast source

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 2, 2026, at 4:20 PM EDT. This update uses Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, the Straits forecast including GMZ052 and GMZ053, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031. Forecasts may change after this check.