Captain's log, October 3, 2026, short seas outside the reef

Prepared at 6:01 AM EDT on October 3, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 6:00 AM EDT. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

I would look at the reef before building the day around a long offshore search. The forecast puts seas around 2 feet in Hawk Channel and 2 to 3 feet outside, but those offshore waves are only five seconds apart. That can still make a short, busy ride.

No verified catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes, not a claim that a boat has already checked the bite or measured conditions at each reef.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:33 AM EDT on October 3. In Hawk Channel, east to southeast winds are near 15 knots with seas around 2 feet. Nearshore waters have a light to moderate chop. Showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Outside the reef in the Straits, east to southeast winds are near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, with wave detail of east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms here too. The bulletin does not carry a small craft advisory for these zones at this issue time. That is not an all-clear for every boat.

Florida Bay has east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots and a light to moderate chop, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The bay forecast does not describe the exposed Atlantic side.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure, and leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.

From Molasses to Tennessee

The channel approach and the water outside the reef need separate decisions. Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading, and assess the exposed ride before moving outside.
Conch	Near 15 knots from the east to southeast can make the return angle matter. I would check that ride before settling into nearby legal fishing grounds.
Davis	Around 2 feet in the channel is the forecast, not a measured local sea. There is no visibility report here to justify calling the water clear.
Crocker	Watch how the boat lies against the actual current before setting a chum line. We do not have a verified current direction or drift speed.
Alligator	Use the 2 to 3 foot Straits forecast beyond the reef. Five-second waves deserve more attention than the sea-height number alone.
Tennessee	There is no fresh observation showing better water farther down the reef. Make the run only if the ride and route home suit the boat.

These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times below are EDT on October 3, 2026, in America/New_York. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
High	3:31 AM	0.845
Low	12:28 PM	0.161
High	6:12 PM	0.469
Low	11:01 PM	0.410

The first high has passed at preparation time. The next predicted low is at 12:28 PM. This is a bayside reference, not a schedule for slack current at an Atlantic reef. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 81.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 3, equivalent to 09:54 UTC. It is a regional bay reading farther down the Keys, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

NDBC’s Molasses Reef station, MLRF1, showed no recent reports when checked at 6:00 AM EDT. A fresh reef temperature from that station is unavailable. Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

Yellowtail snapper would be an option on legal reef grounds if the boat settles into a workable current. I would see how the chum line runs before committing. The forecast alone says nothing about whether the fish are feeding.

Mangrove snapper are another possible target around suitable structure. For mutton snapper, a manageable drift matters more than assigning an offshore bite window from a bayside tide table.

A mahi search would depend on the actual ride and whether there is bait or other fishable water worth working. There are no fresh weed-line observations in this report. Blackfin tuna remain a possible offshore target, not a verified bite. I would not promise either species from a weather forecast. Check current size limits and applicable seasons before keeping fish.

Tonight and Sunday

Tonight’s Hawk Channel forecast keeps east to southeast winds near 15 knots and seas around 2 feet. Nearshore waters have a moderate chop. The Straits stay at east to southeast winds near 15 knots with seas of 2 to 3 feet. Offshore wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. Both areas retain a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

For Sunday, October 4, Hawk Channel has east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots with seas of 1 to 2 feet and a light to moderate chop nearshore. The Straits have the same wind range with seas around 2 feet, east to southeast at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains in both forecasts.

That is a forecast for somewhat less sea on Sunday, not proof that conditions have already eased. Recheck before leaving rather than carrying this morning’s numbers into another day.

Sources

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 3, 2026, at 4:33 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones including GMZ052 and GMZ053, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 3, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 3 at 09:54 UTC, equivalent to 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Forecasts and observations may change after this morning’s source check.

Midday update, 11:32 AM EDT

Prepared at 11:32 AM EDT on October 3, 2026, for the midday update. NOAA’s 10:35 AM EDT coastal forecast raises the offshore sea forecast from this morning’s 2 to 3 feet to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. That is a forecast change, not a measured increase at the reefs.

For this afternoon, Hawk Channel has east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots and seas around 2 feet, with a light to moderate chop nearshore. The morning bulletin had winds near 15 knots. The channel sea forecast has not changed. Outside the reef, the Straits also have east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots. Wave detail remains east to southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms remains in both areas.

The slightly lower wind range does not mean a smoother offshore ride. I would use the revised 2 to 4 foot forecast, occasionally to 5 feet, when weighing an exposed run off Molasses or Conch. The same regional forecast applies outside Davis and Crocker, and farther south off Alligator and Tennessee. We have no fresh reef-by-reef observations showing that one of those areas is calmer.

Florida Bay starts the afternoon with east to southeast winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters go from a light chop to a light to moderate chop. That is separate from conditions outside the reef.

For tonight, NOAA keeps east to southeast winds near 15 knots. Hawk Channel stays around 2 feet with a moderate chop nearshore. The Straits are now forecast at 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, with east waves of 3 feet at 5 seconds. Sunday’s Straits forecast is now 2 to 3 feet rather than the morning bulletin’s around 2 feet. Sunday’s Hawk Channel forecast remains 1 to 2 feet. Both areas have east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots on Sunday.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings in this update. The tide predictions and regional water temperature above retain their original station and time labels; they have not been refreshed here. I would still favor checking legal reef grounds for a workable snapper setup before committing to an offshore mahi or blackfin search. No bite is confirmed.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 3, 2026, at 10:35 AM EDT and checked at 11:30 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones including GMZ052 and GMZ053, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.

Evening update, October 3, 2026

Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 3, 2026, using the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 4:21 PM EDT. The morning report above remains in place as the original record. We have no verified afternoon catches or direct on-the-water observations to report. The forecast data has shifted from the midday update. Tonight’s Hawk Channel seas are now 2 to 3 feet, up from around 2 feet. The Sunday Straits outlook also raised to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet.

Afternoon recap

The 4:21 PM bulletin confirms that Atlantic high pressure remains offshore. This keeps moderate east to southeasterly breezes in place through tonight. The main difference from the 10:35 AM forecast involves both tonight’s Hawk Channel seas and Sunday’s Straits forecast. Tonight’s Hawk Channel seas are now 2 to 3 feet, whereas the midday update had them around 2 feet. For Sunday, the Straits seas are now forecast at 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, before subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. The midday update had listed Sunday Straits seas at 2 to 3 feet. This is a forecast change, not an observation of current conditions.

Hawk Channel winds for tonight remain near 15 knots from the east to southeast. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters show a moderate chop. A chance of showers and thunderstorms persists. Florida Bay has east winds of 10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers and thunderstorms is also present there. The regional synopsis notes that drier weather is settling in, though isolated showers remain possible.

Tonight’s ride

Expect east to southeast winds near 15 knots in the Hawk Channel. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters will have a moderate chop. Plan for a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

In the Straits of Florida, winds are east to southeast near 15 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally reaching 5 feet. The wave detail specifies east waves of 3 feet at 5 seconds. Five-second waves can make a short, busy ride. A chance of showers and thunderstorms remains.

Florida Bay tonight has east winds of 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters will see a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast.

Sunday, October 4 outlook

Hawk Channel winds are east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 1 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters will have a light to moderate chop. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Straits winds are east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots. Seas are forecast at 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, before subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail shows east to southeast waves of 2 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains.

Florida Bay has east to southeast winds near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters will be a light chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is possible.

From Molasses to Tennessee, use the regional forecast. The Gulf Stream shoreward edge positions as of October 2 are 1 NM south-southeast of Sombrero Key Light, off Marathon; 0 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light, off Islamorada; and 2 NM northwest of Molasses Reef Light, off Key Largo. No current readings are available.

Yellowtail snapper may work if the current is manageable. Mangrove snapper are possible near structure. Mutton snapper require a controlled drift. Mahi mahi and blackfin tuna remain speculative targets based on weather, not confirmed activity. Do not assume fish are present because seas are forecast to ease.

Evening forecast source

The data used for this update comes from the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast. It was issued at 4:21 PM EDT on October 3, 2026.