Captain's log, October 4, 2026, east winds and scattered showers

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 4, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 6:00 AM EDT. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

I would look at the reef before building the day around a long offshore search. The forecast puts seas at 2 to 3 feet in Hawk Channel and 2 to 4 feet outside, occasionally to 5 feet. Those offshore waves are only five seconds apart. That can still make a short, busy ride.

No verified catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:32 AM EDT on October 4. In Hawk Channel, east to southeast winds are 10 to 15 knots with seas of 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters have a light to moderate chop. Showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Outside the reef in the Straits, east to southeast winds are near 15 knots, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms here too.

Florida Bay has east to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 15 knots. Bay waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. The bay forecast does not describe the exposed Atlantic side.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure, and leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.

From Molasses to Tennessee

The channel approach and the water outside the reef need separate decisions. Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading, and assess the exposed ride before moving outside.
Conch	Near 15 knots from the east to southeast can make the return angle matter. I would check that ride before settling into nearby legal fishing grounds.
Davis	Around 2 to 3 feet in the channel is the forecast, not a measured local sea. There is no visibility report here to justify calling the water clear.
Crocker	Watch how the boat lies against the actual current before setting a chum line. We do not have a verified current direction or drift speed.
Alligator	Use the 2 to 4 foot Straits forecast beyond the reef. Five-second waves deserve more attention than the sea-height number alone.
Tennessee	There is no fresh observation showing better water farther down the reef. Make the run only if the ride and route home suit the boat.

These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 4, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
High	4:56 AM	0.822
Low	1:47 PM	0.188
High	7:28 PM	0.509

The first high has passed at preparation time. The next predicted low is at 1:47 PM. This is a bayside reference, not a schedule for slack current at an Atlantic reef. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 83.5 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 4. It is a regional bay reading farther down the Keys, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

Yellowtail snapper would be an option on legal reef grounds if the boat settles into a workable current. I would see how the chum line runs before committing. The forecast alone says nothing about whether the fish are feeding.

Mangrove snapper are another possible target around suitable structure. For mutton snapper, a manageable drift matters more than assigning an offshore bite window from a bayside tide table.

A mahi search would depend on the actual ride and whether there is bait or other fishable water worth working. There are no fresh weed-line observations in this report. Blackfin tuna remain a possible offshore target, not a verified bite. I would not promise either species from a weather forecast. Check current size limits and applicable seasons before keeping fish.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight’s Hawk Channel forecast keeps east to southeast winds near 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters have a light chop. The Straits have east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Offshore wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. Both areas retain a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

For Monday, October 5, Hawk Channel has east to southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots with seas of 1 to 2 feet and a smooth to light chop nearshore. The Straits have the same wind range with seas of 1 to 2 feet, east to southeast at 4 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains in both forecasts.

That is a forecast for somewhat less sea on Monday. Recheck before leaving rather than carrying this morning’s numbers into another day.

Sources

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 4, 2026, at 4:32 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 4, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 4 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

This update was prepared at 11:30 AM EDT on October 4, 2026. It uses the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 10:26 AM EDT today. The main change versus the morning report is the wind and sea state in Florida Bay. The morning forecast listed east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop. The new bulletin shows east to southeast winds near 10 knots with bay waters at a light chop. The Straits wave detail came down a foot from the morning outlook.

For this afternoon, Florida Bay has east to southeast winds near 10 knots and a light chop. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Hawk Channel continues with east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet with a light to moderate chop nearshore. The Straits of Florida maintain east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, before subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. The wave detail dropped from 4 feet to 3 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms persists in all three zones.

For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, this regional planning update confirms the morning assessment. The wind and sea heights for the channel and the Straits have not shifted materially beyond the wave detail change. Use the Hawk Channel data for the transit and the Straits data for exposed water. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings are available. As of October 2, NOAA placed the shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream 0 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light.

Tonight, Hawk Channel winds drop to near 10 knots with seas of 1 to 2 feet. The Straits see winds decreasing to near 10 knots with seas of 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is east at 3 feet with a 5 second period. Tomorrow, Monday, brings lighter conditions. Hawk Channel has east to southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet. The Straits have the same wind range with seas of 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail shifts to east to southeast at 2 feet with a 4 second period. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains for both areas.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings to report. The tide table and water temperature in the morning post keep their original labels and times. Do not treat the Vaca Key temperature as an offshore measurement. Check your own instruments at the fishing position.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 10:26 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026, checked 11:30 AM EDT.

Evening update, October 4, 2026

Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 4, 2026. This update uses the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 4:24 PM EDT today. The morning report above is preserved.

Afternoon recap

No verified afternoon catches or observations are available. The morning report had 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, for the daytime in the Straits; tonight’s forecast lists 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to around 2 feet. In Hawk Channel, the morning report listed seas of 2 to 3 feet. Tonight’s forecast is 1 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.

Tonight’s ride

In Hawk Channel, east to southeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms exists.

In the Straits, east to southeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to around 2 feet. Wave detail is east 3 feet at 5 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms exists.

In Florida Bay, east winds are near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are a light chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms exists.

Monday, October 5

In Hawk Channel, east to southeast winds are 5 to 10 knots, decreasing to 5 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming smooth. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

In the Straits, east to southeast winds are 5 to 10 knots, becoming east. Seas are around 2 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

In Florida Bay, southeast winds are 5 to 10 knots, decreasing to near 5 knots. Bay waters smooth to a light chop, becoming smooth. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Regional planning

As of October 2, the approximate shoreward edge of the Gulf Stream is 0 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light. Use the Hawk Channel forecast for the transit and the Straits forecast for exposed water. No verified visibility or current readings are available for the reef areas.

Species outlook

Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are options on legal reef grounds if the boat settles into a workable current. Mutton snapper require a manageable drift. Mahi and blackfin tuna are possible offshore targets, but there is no claimed bite. Check current regulations before keeping fish.

Evening forecast source

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 424 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS52.KKEY.html