Captain's log, October 5, 2026, gentle east breezes and calm seas

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 5, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 6:00 AM EDT. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

The weather has settled in for the day. Atlantic high pressure is holding east of Bermuda, keeping the breezes gentle to moderate from the east to southeast. They will slacken gradually through today. I would expect a relatively quiet ride, though isolated showers are still possible.

No verified catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:34 AM EDT on October 5. In Hawk Channel, east to southeast winds are near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters have a light chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains.

Outside the reef in the Straits, east to southeast winds are near 10 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms here too.

Florida Bay has east to southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. The bay forecast does not describe the exposed Atlantic side.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure, and leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.

From Molasses to Tennessee

The channel approach and the water outside the reef need separate decisions. Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading, and assess the exposed ride before moving outside.
Conch	Near 10 knots from the east to southeast is the forecast. The return angle should be manageable, but check the actual wind shift as it decreases.
Davis	Around 1 to 2 feet in the channel is the forecast, not a measured local sea. There is no visibility report here to justify calling the water clear.
Crocker	Watch how the boat lies against the actual current before setting a chum line. We do not have a verified current direction or drift speed.
Alligator	Use the 1 to 2 foot Straits forecast beyond the reef. Four-second waves are short, so watch the period as well as the height.
Tennessee	There is no fresh observation showing better water farther down the reef. Make the run only if the ride and route home suit the boat.

These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 5, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	00:41	0.412
High	06:29	0.819
Low	14:52	0.211
High	20:17	0.57

The first low has passed at preparation time. The next predicted high is at 06:29 AM. This is a bayside reference, not a schedule for slack current at an Atlantic reef. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 84.7 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 5. It is a regional bay reading farther down the Keys, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

Yellowtail snapper would be an option on legal reef grounds if the boat settles into a workable current. I would see how the chum line runs before committing. The forecast alone says nothing about whether the fish are feeding.

Mangrove snapper are another possible target around suitable structure. For mutton snapper, a manageable drift matters more than assigning an offshore bite window from a bayside tide table.

A mahi search would depend on the actual ride and whether there is bait or other fishable water worth working. There are no fresh weed-line observations in this report. Blackfin tuna remain a possible offshore target, not a verified bite. I would not promise either species from a weather forecast. Check current size limits and applicable seasons before keeping fish.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight’s Hawk Channel forecast keeps east to southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop. The Straits have east to southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Offshore wave detail is east 1 foot at 4 seconds. Both areas retain a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

For Tuesday, October 6, Hawk Channel has southeast to south winds near 5 knots with seas of 1 foot or less and smooth nearshore waters. The Straits have southeast winds near 5 knots with seas around 1 foot, east to southeast at 4 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains in both forecasts.

That is a forecast for light air and calm seas on Tuesday. Recheck before leaving rather than carrying this morning’s numbers into another day.

Sources

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 5, 2026, at 4:34 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 5, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 5 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

Prepared at 11:30 AM EDT on October 5, 2026. This uses the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 10:40 AM EDT. The main change is in the wind predictions. The morning report had Hawk Channel winds near 10 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. They are now 5 to 10 knots decreasing to near 5 knots. Florida Bay winds are also decreasing to near 5 knots. The Straits are now southeast 5 to 10 knots, down from east to southeast near 10 knots in the morning report.

In the Hawk Channel this afternoon, seas are 1 to 2 feet subsiding to around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming smooth. The Straits seas are 1 to 2 feet subsiding to around 1 foot. Winds stay southeast 5 to 10 knots. Wave detail is east to southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. This wave detail is unchanged from the morning. Florida Bay waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming smooth. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms persists in all three zones.

No current or visibility readings are available for the reef areas.

Tonight, Hawk Channel winds dropped from 5 to 10 knots to near 5 knots, becoming southeast. Straits winds are east to southeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas hold around 1 foot in both areas. Tomorrow, Hawk Channel has southeast to south winds near 5 knots with seas of 1 foot or less. The Straits have southeast winds near 5 knots with seas around 1 foot. Wave detail is east to southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings. I did not refresh the tide predictions or water temperature for this update.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 1040 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026, checked 11:30 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026.

Evening update, October 5, 2026

Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 5, 2026, using the NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast issued at 4:05 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026. The morning report above is preserved.

Afternoon recap

There are no verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations to report. The forecast numbers have shifted slightly since the morning. In the Hawk Channel, the morning report listed winds near 10 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. The evening bulletin now shows east to southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast and decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. This matches the midday update’s prediction for subsiding seas.

In the Straits, the morning report listed seas at 1 to 2 feet. The evening bulletin lists seas around 1 foot. This aligns with the midday update, which already noted seas subsiding to around 1 foot. Wave detail is east 1 foot at 4 seconds. Florida Bay waters are smooth. Winds are east to southeast near 5 knots, becoming southeast. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains in all three zones.

Tonight’s ride

The forecast for the Hawk Channel is light. Winds are east to southeast 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast and decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming smooth.

The Straits have east to southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast. Seas are around 1 foot. Wave detail is east 1 foot at 4 seconds.

Florida Bay has east to southeast winds near 5 knots, becoming southeast. Bay waters are smooth.

Tuesday, October 6 outlook

The forecast for tomorrow is light air and calm seas. Hawk Channel winds are southeast to south near 5 knots. Seas are 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters are smooth.

The Straits have southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Wave detail is east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. The morning report had Tuesday Straits winds near 5 knots, so the wind is now 5 to 10 knots, up from near 5 in the morning report, with seas still around 1 foot. The wave period shortened to 3 seconds.

Florida Bay has southeast to south winds near 5 knots. Bay waters are smooth.

For regional planning from Molasses to Tennessee, the Straits Tuesday wind is now 5 to 10 knots, up from near 5 in the morning report, with seas still around 1 foot. The wave period shortened to 3 seconds. Use the actual conditions on the day to decide if the run is suitable for your boat. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains in all three zones.

The species outlook is unchanged. Yellowtail and mangrove snapper are options on legal grounds. Mutton snapper depend on a workable drift. Mahi and blackfin tuna remain possible but unverified targets. There is no claimed bite.

Evening forecast source

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 405 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026.