Captain's log, October 6, 2026, light southeasterly breezes and smooth seas

Prepared at 6:01 AM EDT on October 6, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 6:01 AM EDT. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

The weather has settled in for the day. Ridging across the area is encouraging light to gentle southeasterly breezes. Most of the area will stay dry through today, though occasional isolated showers are possible. I would expect a relatively quiet ride.

No verified catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:29 AM EDT on October 6. In Hawk Channel, southeast to south winds are near 5 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains.

Outside the reef in the Straits, southeast winds are 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Wave detail is east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms here too.

Florida Bay has southeast winds near 5 knots. Bay waters are smooth. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. The bay forecast does not describe the exposed Atlantic side.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure, and leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.

From Molasses to Tennessee

The channel approach and the water outside the reef need separate decisions. Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading, and assess the exposed ride before moving outside.
Conch	Near 5 knots from the southeast to south is the forecast. The return angle should be manageable, but check the actual wind shift.
Davis	Around 1 foot in the channel is the forecast, not a measured local sea. There is no visibility report here to justify calling the water clear.
Crocker	Watch how the boat lies against the actual current before setting a chum line. We do not have a verified current direction or drift speed.
Alligator	Use the 1 foot Straits forecast beyond the reef. Three-second waves are short, so watch the period as well as the height.
Tennessee	There is no fresh observation showing better water farther down the reef. Make the run only if the ride and route home suit the boat.

These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 6, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	02:11	0.376
High	07:48	0.832
Low	15:43	0.233
High	20:55	0.641

The first low has passed at preparation time. The next predicted high is at 07:48 AM. This is a bayside reference, not a schedule for slack current at an Atlantic reef. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 86.2 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 6. It is a regional bay reading farther down the Keys, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

Yellowtail snapper would be an option on legal reef grounds if the boat settles into a workable current. I would see how the chum line runs before committing. The forecast alone says nothing about whether the fish are feeding.

Mangrove snapper are another possible target around suitable structure. For mutton snapper, a manageable drift matters more than assigning an offshore bite window from a bayside tide table.

A mahi search would depend on the actual ride and whether there is bait or other fishable water worth working. There are no fresh weed-line observations in this report. Blackfin tuna remain a possible offshore target, not a verified bite. I would not promise either species from a weather forecast. Check current size limits and applicable seasons before keeping fish.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight’s Hawk Channel forecast keeps southeast to south winds at near 5 knots and seas at 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters are smooth. The Straits have southeast winds near 5 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Offshore wave detail is east 1 foot at 3 seconds. Both areas retain a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

For Wednesday, October 7, Hawk Channel has south to southwest winds near 5 knots with seas of 1 foot or less and smooth nearshore waters. The Straits have south winds near 5 knots with seas around 1 foot, southeast at 3 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms remains in both forecasts.

That is a forecast for light air and calm seas on Wednesday. Recheck before leaving rather than carrying this morning’s numbers into another day.

Sources

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 6, 2026, at 4:29 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 6, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 6 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

NOAA reissued the Key West coastal waters forecast at 10:31 AM EDT today, replacing the 4:29 AM EDT bulletin used in the morning report. The numbers are essentially the same. Wind directions, sea heights, and wave periods match the morning outlook, so there is nothing material changed in the forecast.

This afternoon, the Hawk Channel has southeast to south winds near 5 knots and seas around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains. The Straits have southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 foot, with wave detail east to southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Florida Bay has southeast winds near 5 knots and smooth bay waters. All three zones retain a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, the regional planning notes stand. The Hawk Channel has seas around 1 foot this afternoon. The Straits maintain around 1 foot seas outside the reef. Captains should rely on the regional forecast for these areas since no local reef-specific visibility or current readings are available.

Tonight, the Hawk Channel sees southeast to south winds near 5 knots becoming south, with seas 1 foot or less. The Straits have southeast to south winds near 5 knots and seas around 1 foot, with wave detail east 1 foot at 3 seconds. Tomorrow, Wednesday, the Hawk Channel has south to southwest winds near 5 knots and seas 1 foot or less. The Straits have south winds near 5 knots and seas around 1 foot, with wave detail southeast 1 foot at 3 seconds. Both areas have a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings. The tide table and water temperature above keep their original labels. No new tide or water temperature data was checked for this update.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 1031 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026, checked 11:30 AM EDT October 6, 2026.

Evening update, October 6, 2026

Prepared at 5:01 PM EDT on October 6, 2026. This update uses the NOAA Key West coastal waters bulletin issued at 4:28 PM EDT today. The morning report and the midday update above remain preserved in their original form.

Afternoon recap

No verified afternoon catches or on-the-water observations were available. We are working strictly from the new forecast data. The 4:28 PM EDT bulletin replaced the 10:31 AM EDT issue used earlier today. Tonight’s forecast shows a shift in the Hawk Channel. Winds are now south at 5 to 10 knots, becoming south to southeast, with seas around 1 foot. The morning post listed southeast to south winds near 5 knots and seas 1 foot or less. The Straits tonight have southeast to south winds at 5 to 10 knots and seas around 1 foot. Florida Bay has south winds near 5 knots and smooth waters.

Tonight’s ride

Tonight, the Hawk Channel sees south winds at 5 to 10 knots, shifting to south to southeast. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

In the Straits of Florida, winds are southeast to south at 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. The wave detail lists east swell at 1 foot with a 3-second period. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms persists.

Florida Bay has south winds near 5 knots. Bay waters are smooth. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Wednesday, October 7 outlook

Tomorrow brings south to southwest winds. In the Hawk Channel, winds are 5 to 10 knots, decreasing to near 5 knots late. Seas stay around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming smooth. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms exists.

The Straits of Florida have south to southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Wave detail shows southeast swell at 1 foot with a 3-second period. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms remains.

Florida Bay sees south to southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected.

For planning from Molasses to Tennessee, the regional forecast applies. The Gulf Stream’s approximate shoreward edge is listed as 0 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light as of October 2, 2026. This is not a current reading. Captains running outside should account for this proximity. No local reef-specific visibility or current readings are available.

On species, the forecast does not indicate a specific bite. Yellowtail and mangrove snapper remain options on legal grounds if the boat settles well. Mutton snapper require a manageable drift. Mahi and blackfin tuna are possible targets but unverified. Check size limits and seasons before keeping fish.

Evening forecast source

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 4:28 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026.