Captain's log, October 7, 2026, light south winds and rising moisture

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 7, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 6:00 AM EDT. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

The day looks manageable for running out. Winds are light from the south to southwest. Seas are holding down inside the channel and in the nearshore Straits. But moisture is creeping in. The National Weather Service notes that Tropical Storm Isaias and a cold front are working together to tighten the pressure gradient. That means breezes will freshen and rain chances will rise as we head into the weekend. Today is a window.

No verified catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:54 AM EDT on October 7. In Hawk Channel, south to southwest winds are 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop. There is a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Outside the reef in the Straits, south to southwest winds are 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest and decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Wave detail shows south 1 foot at 3 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is also in the forecast here.

Florida Bay has south winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south to southwest. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms remains. The bay forecast does not describe the exposed Atlantic side.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure. Leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.

From Molasses to Tennessee

The channel approach and the water outside the reef need separate decisions. Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading, and assess the exposed ride before moving outside.
Conch	South to southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots are the forecast. The return angle should be manageable, but check the actual wind shift.
Davis	Around 1 foot in the channel is the forecast, not a measured local sea. There is no visibility report here to justify calling the water clear.
Crocker	Watch how the boat lies against the actual current before setting a chum line. We do not have a verified current direction or drift speed.
Alligator	Use the 1 foot Straits forecast beyond the reef. Three-second waves are short, so watch the period as well as the height.
Tennessee	There is no fresh observation showing better water farther down the reef. Make the run only if the ride and route home suit the boat.

These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 7, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	03:23	0.317
High	08:53	0.841
Low	16:24	0.256
High	21:29	0.714

The first low has passed at preparation time. The next predicted high is at 08:53 AM. This is a bayside reference, not a schedule for slack current at an Atlantic reef. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 87.1 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 7. It is a regional bay reading farther down the Keys, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

Yellowtail snapper would be an option on legal reef grounds if the boat settles into a workable current. I would see how the chum line runs before committing. The forecast alone says nothing about whether the fish are feeding.

Mangrove snapper are another possible target around suitable structure. For mutton snapper, a manageable drift matters more than assigning an offshore bite window from a bayside tide table.

A mahi search would depend on the actual ride and whether there is bait or other fishable water worth working. There are no fresh weed-line observations in this report. Blackfin tuna remain a possible offshore target, not a verified bite. I would not promise either species from a weather forecast. Check current size limits and applicable seasons before keeping fish.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight’s Hawk Channel forecast keeps southwest to west winds near 5 knots, becoming south to southwest and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters are smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. The Straits have southwest to west winds near 5 knots, becoming south and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Wave detail is southeast to south 1 foot at 3 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

For Thursday, October 8, Hawk Channel has south winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms remains. The Straits have southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is south 1 foot at 3 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is also in the forecast.

That is a forecast for light air and calm seas continuing into Thursday. Recheck before leaving rather than carrying this morning’s numbers into another day.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 7, 2026, at 4:54 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 7, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 7 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

This update was prepared at 11:30 AM EDT using the NOAA Coastal Waters Forecast issued at 10:44 AM EDT today. Comparing this to the 4:54 AM EDT bulletin used in the morning report, the numbers for this afternoon are identical. There is no material change to the wind, sea state, or precipitation chances for the immediate window.

For this afternoon, the Hawk Channel continues to show south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest. Seas are around 1 foot with nearshore waters smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast. Outside the reef, the Straits have south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest and decreasing to near 5 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. The wave detail specifies south 1 foot at 3 seconds. Showers are still possible. Florida Bay has south winds of 5 to 10 knots, becoming south to southwest. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop with a chance of showers.

Since the forecast numbers for the afternoon match the morning report, the planning notes for the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee remain valid as written. You do not need to adjust your positioning or expectations for the reef grounds based on this update. The regional planning guidance for Molasses, Conch, Davis, Crocker, Alligator, and Tennessee stands.

Looking ahead, tonight brings southwest to west winds near 5 knots in the Hawk Channel, becoming south to southwest and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters are smooth, becoming smooth to a light chop. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. In the Straits, winds are southwest to west near 5 knots, becoming south and increasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Wave detail is southeast to south 1 foot at 3 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms persists.

For Thursday, Hawk Channel winds are south 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms remains. The Straits have southeast to south winds of 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is south 1 foot at 3 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is also in the forecast.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings to report. The tide table and water temperature listed in the original morning report keep their original labels and data. No new observations have come in to alter the baseline conditions.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 7, 2026, at 10:44 AM EDT, checked at 11:30 AM EDT.

Evening update, October 7, 2026

Prepared at 5:00 PM EDT using the NOAA Coastal Waters Forecast issued at 4:46 PM EDT today. The morning report above remains in effect.

Afternoon recap

No verified afternoon catches or observations are available for this report. The 4:46 PM EDT bulletin adjusts the outlook compared to the morning and midday posts. Tonight’s Hawk Channel winds are now southwest to west at 5 to 10 knots, becoming south late. Earlier reports had winds near 5 knots increasing to 5 to 10. The shower chance has also dropped from likely to a chance. For Thursday, the Straits seas are now around 1 foot, down from the 1 to 2 feet predicted earlier. Hawk Channel winds are south near 10 knots early, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. This differs from the morning forecast of south winds becoming southeast.

Tonight’s ride

The 4:46 PM EDT bulletin gives specific numbers for tonight. In the Hawk Channel, winds are southwest to west at 5 to 10 knots, becoming south late. Seas are 1 foot or less. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Outside the reef in the Straits, winds are southwest at 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas are 1 foot or less. The wave detail shows southeast to south waves at 1 foot with a 3-second period. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms remains.

Florida Bay has southwest to west winds at 5 to 10 knots, becoming south late. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop late. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is also present here. The ride should be comfortable if you stay inside the reef.

Thursday, October 8 outlook

Thursday starts with light air but builds significantly by evening. In the Hawk Channel, south winds are near 10 knots early, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. Nearshore waters are a light chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms remains.

In the Straits, south winds are near 10 knots, becoming southeast to south at 5 to 10 knots. Seas are around 1 foot. The wave detail specifies south waves at 1 foot with a 3-second period. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Florida Bay has south to southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms persists.

Plan for a shift Thursday night. Southeast winds increase to 10 to 15 knots in the Hawk Channel. Seas build to 1 to 2 feet. Nearshore waters become a light to moderate chop. The Straits see east to southeast winds near 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas build to 2 to 3 feet. If you run out early, ensure you are back before the evening chop sets in.

For planning the run from Molasses to Tennessee, the daytime conditions are manageable. The channel approach and exposed water beyond the reef have light winds and low seas during the day. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings are available for these areas. Use the regional forecast for the channel and the Straits forecast for the exposed ride. Check the actual wind shift before moving outside. The boat’s position against the current is unknown without local observation. Do not assume clear water or favorable drift based on the calm daytime forecast.

The species outlook remains speculative. Yellowtail snapper are possible on legal reef grounds if the current is workable. Mangrove snapper and mutton snapper are also targets around suitable structure. The forecast does not indicate a bite. Mahi and blackfin tuna remain possible offshore targets, but there are no fresh weed-line or bait observations to support a specific search. Check current size limits and seasons before keeping fish.

Evening forecast source

NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 7, 2026, at 4:46 PM EDT.