Captain's log, October 8, 2026, light south winds and rising moisture

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 8, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 6:00 AM EDT. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

The day looks manageable for running out. Winds are light from the south. Seas are holding down inside the channel and in the nearshore Straits. But moisture is creeping in. The National Weather Service notes that Hurricane Isaias and a cold front are working together to tighten the pressure gradient. That means breezes will freshen and rain chances will rise as we head into the weekend. Today is a window.

No verified catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:26 AM EDT on October 8. In Hawk Channel, south winds are near 10 knots, except 5 to 10 knots off the Upper Keys, becoming southeast to south. Seas are around 1 foot, except 1 to 2 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a light chop, except smooth to a light chop off the Upper Keys. There is a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, mainly this morning.

Outside the reef in the Straits, south winds are near 10 knots, except 5 to 10 knots off the Upper Keys, becoming southeast to south. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail shows south 1 foot at 3 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is also in the forecast here.

Florida Bay has south winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms remains, mainly this morning. The bay forecast does not describe the exposed Atlantic side.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure. Leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.

From Molasses to Tennessee

The channel approach and the water outside the reef need separate decisions. Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading, and assess the exposed ride before moving outside.
Conch	South winds near 10 knots are the forecast. The return angle should be manageable, but check the actual wind shift.
Davis	Around 1 foot in the channel is the forecast, not a measured local sea. There is no visibility report here to justify calling the water clear.
Crocker	Watch how the boat lies against the actual current before setting a chum line. We do not have a verified current direction or drift speed.
Alligator	Use the 1 to 2 foot Straits forecast beyond the reef. Three-second waves are short, so watch the period as well as the height.
Tennessee	There is no fresh observation showing better water farther down the reef. Make the run only if the ride and route home suit the boat.

These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 8, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	04:23	0.25
High	09:48	0.835
Low	16:59	0.276
High	22:01	0.78

The first low has passed at preparation time. The next predicted high is at 09:48 AM. This is a bayside reference, not a schedule for slack current at an Atlantic reef. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 87.3 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 8. It is a regional bay reading farther down the Keys, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

Yellowtail snapper would be an option on legal reef grounds if the boat settles into a workable current. I would see how the chum line runs before committing. The forecast alone says nothing about whether the fish are feeding.

Mangrove snapper are another possible target around suitable structure. For mutton snapper, a manageable drift matters more than assigning an offshore bite window from a bayside tide table.

A mahi search would depend on the actual ride and whether there is bait or other fishable water worth working. There are no fresh weed-line observations in this report. Blackfin tuna remain a possible offshore target, not a verified bite. I would not promise either species from a weather forecast. Check current size limits and applicable seasons before keeping fish.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight’s Hawk Channel forecast keeps east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast and increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas are around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. The Straits have east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast and increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

For Friday, October 9, Hawk Channel has southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 2 to 3 feet, building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms remains. The Straits have southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, building to 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. West of Halfmoon Shoal Light, seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, building to 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet due to a west swell. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 4 seconds and southwest to west 2 feet at 11 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is also in the forecast.

That is a forecast for freshening air and rising seas continuing into Friday. Recheck before leaving rather than carrying this morning’s numbers into another day.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 8, 2026, at 4:26 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ044, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ055 and GMZ072 through GMZ075, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 8, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 8 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 12:28 PM EDT

Prepared at 12:28 PM EDT, this update uses the NOAA Key West coastal waters bulletin issued at 10:26 AM EDT today. The morning post used the 4:26 AM EDT bulletin. The afternoon and tonight numbers are the same as the morning report. The only material change is that the 4:26 AM mention of showers this morning is no longer in the afternoon text.

For this afternoon, Hawk Channel has south winds near 10 knots, except 5 to 10 knots off the Upper Keys, becoming southeast to south. Seas are around 1 foot, except 1 to 2 feet west of Cosgrove Shoal Light. Nearshore waters are a light chop, except smooth to a light chop off the Upper Keys. The Straits have south winds near 10 knots, except 5 to 10 knots off the Upper Keys, becoming southeast to south. Seas are 1 to 2 feet. Wave detail is south 1 foot at 3 seconds. Florida Bay has south winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south. Bay waters are smooth to a light chop.

For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, the regional planning notes hold. The morning report noted the lack of specific station data for these spots. This bulletin does not provide local visibility or current readings for those six areas. The forecast numbers show a manageable sea state for running out.

Tonight, east to southeast winds are 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast and increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas are around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet in the Hawk Channel. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet. The Straits have east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast and increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas are 1 to 2 feet, building to 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail is southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Tomorrow, Friday, Hawk Channel has southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas are around 2 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. West of Cosgrove Shoal Light, seas are 2 to 3 feet, building to 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop. The Straits have southeast winds near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet, building to 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. West of Halfmoon Shoal Light, seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, building to 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet due to a west swell. Wave detail is east to southeast 3 feet at 4 seconds and southwest to west 2 feet at 11 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms remains.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings available. The tide table and water temperature above keep their original labels and data points.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued 10:26 AM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026, checked at 12:28 PM EDT.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.