Captain's log, October 10, 2026, post-Isaias moisture and persistent swell

Conditions data: FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report.

Prepared at 6:00 AM EDT on October 10, 2026, using NOAA sources checked at 6:00 AM EDT. This is the scheduled morning conditions report.

The day requires attention to moisture and swell. Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias made landfall near Destin last evening. A plume of moisture is moving through the Keys today into tonight. Winds are moderate from the southeast to south. The main call for today is to monitor the afternoon shower chances and the rising thunderstorm coverage expected tonight. Seas inside the channel are 2 to 3 feet. Outside the reef, seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows southeast to south 3 feet at 4 seconds and southwest to west 2 feet at 10 seconds.

No verified catches or fresh on-the-water observations were available for this report. These are forecast-based planning notes.

Wind and seas today

NOAA’s Key West coastal waters forecast was issued at 4:29 AM EDT on October 10. In Hawk Channel, southeast to south winds are near 15 knots, becoming southeast and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers this morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.

Outside the reef in the Straits, southeast to south winds are near 15 knots, becoming southeast and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail shows southeast to south 3 feet at 4 seconds and southwest to west 2 feet at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers this morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.

Florida Bay has southeast to south winds near 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Bay waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light chop. A slight chance of showers this morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon.

NOAA’s sea heights are significant wave heights, the average of the highest third of waves. Individual waves may be more than twice as high. Check radar and the latest warnings before departure. Leave room to change the plan if a squall develops.

From Molasses to Tennessee

The channel approach and the water outside the reef need separate decisions. Use the Hawk Channel forecast inside and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No verified reef-specific visibility or current readings were available for these six areas.

Reef area	Morning planning note
Molasses	The NDBC station has no recent reports. Gulf Stream edge is 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light. Use the regional forecast, not an old station reading.
Conch	No specific data available for Conch. Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.
Davis	No specific data available for Davis. Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.
Crocker	No specific data available for Crocker. Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.
Alligator	Gulf Stream edge is 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light. Use the Straits forecast for exposed water.
Tennessee	No specific data available for Tennessee. Use the Hawk Channel and Straits forecasts for planning.

These are reef areas, not an invitation to fish inside protected zones. Check current sanctuary boundaries at the exact position and keep anchors off coral. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Today’s tides

The reference is NOAA station 8723808, Upper Matecumbe Key, Florida Bay. Times are local (EDT) on October 10, 2026. Heights are feet relative to mean lower low water, or MLLW. These are predictions, not observed water levels.

Event	Time, EDT	Height, feet MLLW
Low	06:00	0.141
High	11:21	0.772
Low	18:04	0.306
High	23:02	0.865

The first low is predicted at 6:00 AM. The next predicted high is at 11:21 AM. This is a bayside reference. Check the actual flow where you intend to fish.

Water temperature

NOAA station 8723970, Vaca Key, Florida Bay, reported 86.9 F at 5:54 AM EDT on October 10. It is a regional bay reading farther down the Keys, not a measured temperature at any of the six reef areas in this report.

Read the boat’s gauge at the fishing position rather than treating the Vaca Key number as an offshore observation.

Species outlook

No species-specific data or on-water observations are available for this report. The species listed in the front matter are general planning categories, not confirmed targets for today.

Yellowtail snapper, mangrove snapper, mutton snapper, mahi mahi, and blackfin tuna are potential targets on legal reef grounds if conditions allow. The forecast alone says nothing about whether the fish are feeding. Check current size limits and applicable seasons before keeping fish.

Tonight and tomorrow

Tonight’s Hawk Channel forecast keeps southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast. The Straits have east to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds and southwest to west 2 feet at 9 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

For Sunday, October 11, Hawk Channel has southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east and decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. The Straits have east to southeast winds near 15 knots, becoming east and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds and southwest to west 1 foot at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is also in the forecast.

That is a forecast for persistent moisture and moderate seas continuing into Sunday. Recheck before leaving rather than carrying this morning’s numbers into another day.

Sources

Conditions data for this log is sourced from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report for the Florida Keys. The NOAA and NDBC products it builds on are linked below.

• NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 10, 2026, at 4:29 AM EDT. Hawk Channel zones GMZ042 through GMZ043, Straits zones GMZ052 through GMZ053 and GMZ072 through GMZ073, and Florida Bay zone GMZ031.
• NOAA Upper Matecumbe Key tide predictions, October 10, 2026, local daylight time, feet MLLW.
• NOAA Vaca Key water temperature, October 10 at 5:54 AM EDT.
• NDBC Molasses Reef station, no recent reports when checked.

Midday update, 11:30 AM EDT

This update was prepared at 11:30 AM EDT on October 10, 2026, using the NOAA Key West Coastal Waters Forecast issued at 10:16 AM EDT that same morning. Comparing this new bulletin against the 4:29 AM EDT forecast used in the morning report, nothing material has changed. The lingering effects of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continue to drive conditions, with elevated swells persisting through the western Straits and the southeast Gulf. Moderate southeast to south breezes are expected to continue throughout the Florida Keys coastal waters, especially the SE Gulf, western Straits, and the nearshore waters surrounding the Lower Keys. Breezes will only modestly slacken as the cyclone moves away. The new bulletin also notes a frontal boundary associated with Isaias may push through the Keys by midweek.

For the Hawk Channel this afternoon, southeast to south winds are near 15 knots, becoming southeast and decreasing to 10 to 15 knots. Seas hold at 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers is shifting to a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. In the Straits of Florida, winds follow the same trend. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The wave detail remains southeast to south 3 feet at 4 seconds and southwest to west 2 feet at 10 seconds. Florida Bay sees southeast to south winds near 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Bay waters are a moderate chop, becoming a light chop. The shower and thunderstorm chances match the channel.

For the reef areas from Molasses to Tennessee, use the regional forecast for planning. The Gulf Stream edge as of October 9 is 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light and 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light, the same figures used this morning. Use the Hawk Channel forecast for protected waters inside the reef and the Straits forecast for exposed water beyond the reef. No new reef-specific visibility or current readings are available. Fish only where the rules allow it.

Tonight, southeast winds in the Hawk Channel are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. In the Straits, east to southeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds and southwest to west 2 feet at 9 seconds. Sunday brings southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east and decreasing to near 10 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet in the channel and 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet, in the Straits. Moisture and moderate seas persist.

There are no new verified catches or on-the-water readings to report. The tide table and water temperature data provided in the morning report keep their original labels and values. This update did not pull new tide or water temperature readings, so the morning values stand.

Source: NOAA Key West coastal waters forecast, issued October 10, 2026, at 10:16 AM EDT, checked at 11:30 AM EDT.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.

Evening update, October 10, 2026

This evening report was prepared at 5:00 PM EDT on October 10, 2026. It relies on the NOAA Key West Coastal Waters Forecast issued at 3:43 PM EDT today. The morning report and the midday update above remain in place and are not altered here. This section adds the latest forecast data for the rest of the weekend.

Afternoon recap

No verified catches or on-the-water observations are available. The 3:43 PM EDT bulletin confirms that enhanced swells from Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias are steadily subsiding across the western waters of the Florida Keys. Breezes are slowly slackening to gentle to moderate levels this weekend. Shower coverage will start to increase tonight as breezes back southeasterly to easterly. During the second half of the weekend, breezes are on track to back further northeasterly. Drier air starts to filter in on Sunday, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tonight’s ride

Tonight, southeast winds in the Hawk Channel are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a moderate chop. Showers are likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. In the Straits, east to southeast winds are 10 to 15 knots, increasing to near 15 knots. Seas are 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail is east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds and west 3 feet at 10 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is expected. Florida Bay has southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast.

Sunday, October 11 outlook

Tomorrow brings a shift in wind direction and a drop in shower chances. In the Hawk Channel, winds are east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 3 feet. Nearshore waters are a light to moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast. The Straits of Florida have east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots. Seas are 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. The wave detail is east to southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds and west 2 feet at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected. Florida Bay has east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to near 10 knots. Bay waters are a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast.

For planning from Molasses to Tennessee, note the Gulf Stream edge positions. The edge is 2 NM east of Molasses Reef Light and 5 NM south-southeast of Alligator Reef Light. These positions are consistent with the morning report. Use the regional forecast for these areas as no specific reef data is available. The species outlook remains unchanged. Yellowtail snapper, mangrove snapper, mutton snapper, mahi mahi, and blackfin tuna are potential targets on legal reef grounds. The forecast does not confirm a bite. Check current size limits and seasons before keeping fish.

Evening forecast source

The data in this update comes from the NOAA Key West Coastal Waters Forecast. The bulletin was issued at 3:43 PM EDT on Saturday, October 10, 2026. You can view the full text at https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS52.KKEY.html.

Conditions data for this update comes from FishIntel, the daily Islamorada fishing intelligence report, using the NOAA bulletin named above.